For those who want to open things back up:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-...d=hp_lead_pos1

The argument seems to be that 2 million more deaths are OK as long as they are older people and not us.

Are all Brazilian cities on total lockdown?

Most Brazilian cities, all across the country, are in semi-lockdown by municipal and state ordinances. Non-essential services and schools were closed, but there is only strong recommendations to stay home, nothing enforced by law. São Paulo is incredibly empty, no more gridlocks for the past two weeks.

The problem is the erratic messages coming from Bolsonaro attacking governors, mayors and even his own ministers.

That sounds familiar.

I sincerely hope that son of a bitch gets ousted some way or another.

The Hungarian parliament has just given unlimited powers to Orban, the Prime Minister on account of the covid19 crisis. I just don't want the same thing to happen elsewhere, least of all an important country like Brazil.

Without getting to any argument about the general seriousness of Covid or current/proposed mitigation measures..

I would really like to know if those death estimates are accretive.

ie. Is the range stated above, net new deaths above and beyond normal?

In a typical year, the U.S. sees about 2.9 million deaths.

So if the worst-case is accretive you're looking at 5 million or so this year.

If its not accretive (meaning some people who were going to die this year already, are now going to die with or of Covid, as opposed to a different cause) that surely matters.

That's not an argument against mitigation, or for any lack of compassion; rather its one for more facts, and better understanding of what trades off are; and could be made.

In 2017 there were 2.8 million deaths in the US from all causes. Clearly if there are 2.2 million from coronavirus alone in the next 12-18 months (before there's a vaccine), there is a large incremental number due solely to coronavirus. I haven't seen and can't find any guess about the overlap, that is what you seem to be seeking (the number of folks who die of coronavirus this week who might have died anyway next week or next month). But there's got to be hundreds of thousands, probably over a million in the worst case scenario who would NOT die this year but for the virus.

Correct, this is what I'm seeking.

I agree there is the risk of a very high, accretive number.

But I think that number is an important one to have proper modelling for.

We need to weight that as we consider the deaths that will occur resulting from delayed/cancelled cancer surgeries and transplants.

Again, not an argument against mitigation, but rather information to inform the type, nature and duration of said mitigation.

Why would cancer surgeries and transplants be delayed? I assume they're holding back a few masks and ventilators for those. Nobody has said anything about cancelling them to my knowledge. All I've heard about is cancelling elective surgeries...sports-performance and quality of life etc.

I use two vets and they do the same.

Regarding Florida, I wonder about The Villages, which I believe is the largest retirement community in the country, with an estimated 2018 population of 128,000. I've visited eight times, and I don't believe most of the residents are the type to have taken this seriously (maybe now, though). It's an older population, many of whom have serious health problems, so things could get bad for them if the virus gets started there (if not already).

This is what's happening (cancer):

Canada:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/cancer-covid19-1.5512599

Britain:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-52038230

US:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...ncer-patients/

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/29/82343...s-in-treatment

****

Transplants as well:

Canada:

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/surgery-f...d-19-1.4860556

U.S.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...break-n1163066

It isn't crazy. It makes perfect sense at this point.

Sounds like you prefer not to give credit card info online or by phone to delivery services.

Older population is a bit underselling it. It's 55+ only right?

One big reason is because cancer patients don't just have surgery. They usually get chemotherapy in addition to surgery and chemotherapy reduces their immune response. You don't want them anywhere near patients with this virus, certainly not in the same building.

Essentially to treat these immune suppressed patients, both those on chemotherapy and those post-transplant, you need to have them in a facility that scrupulously excludes people possibly infected with coronavirus. The cities and locales significantly affected by the virus mostly don't feel they have the hospital capacity to reserve a building for these types of treatment however in New York and LA it's one function the Navy Hospital ships can potentially provide (I know they are treating non-COVID patients and trying to scrupulously exclude the virus but whether they are including cancer surgery in the scope of what they are doing I can't say).

As an aside, I have two upcoming medical appointments and I have changed both of them from physical visits to my hospital-based doctors' offices to telephone/videoconference appointments and in one case, at the San Francisco VA, I was told they temporarily aren't doing any outpatient appointments in the hospital building for non-COVID patients.

55 is the new 45. You can't get Medicare until you're 65 or Social Security until you're 62.

Congratulations for having someone to bring you groceries. I can't find any delivery service now that isn't totally overbooked. Even the curb-side pickup appointments are unavailable. Thankfully, not many cases of COVID in my community yet so I took a chance and went to the supermarket around 7:30 PM last Friday (they close at 9 PM and people here go to bed early and rarely go out after dinner hour) and got what I thought I'd need for a couple weeks. I wore cotton gloves in the store, applied hand sanitizer after leaving before touching my car and washed my hands vigorously when I got home.

I would have microwaved the money (two 20 minute bursts seems to be safe with paper and sufficient to kill the virus).

My neighborhood is Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg ...

https://www.exberliner.com/downloads...b45e&w=1050&h=

Sweden can say what it wants, Realistically the USA is locking down 269 million people at the moment. And almost all of it is voluntary.

Even the most extreme lock-downs round the northeast and California rely most heavily on people complying with an ask more than an order

Why do you think the lockdowns are voluntary?

They're quasi-voluntary. No one is being stopped for walking down the street or taking a stroll in the park.

Of course if someone grossly violates distancing rules they could theoretically be ticketed, but I assume they would first be warned.