I so agree:

https://sf.curbed.com/2020/6/15/2129...id-coronavirus

The seasonal flu is about r = 1. Or, for every infected person, they pass it to one other person. COVID is believed to be anywhere from r = 2 to r = 6. They don't really know for sure since it's a new virus, but based on behavior it's probably quite a bit above 2. If r is less than 1, that means the virus is disappearing. This is what should start to happen when the vaccine gets us to "herd immunity".

Yup, and public water fountains.

Thank you.

Now, here is my question/concern:

During a bad flu season, we do nothing different. No masks, social distancing, restrictions, etc. So at what point, or how bad does a flu season have to be to make us do those things? I ask this because let's say Covid goes to r=1.4? Its worse than the flu, but as I said, we never did anything different for the flu, so why are we only going to declare mission accomplished when we get to flu levels, why not slightly higher than flu levels?

I hope that point/question makes sense.

I think a typical flu season has r> 1 for a relatively short time (the winter, when cases rise), and r<~ 1 the rest of the time (when cases fall).

Yes, it makes sense. First, the flu has a widely available vaccine. Anyone who wants a flu vaccine can usually get one. Second, much has been made of the fact that COVID only has a mortality rate of between 1-3%, but that's 10-30 times more deadly than the flu. So, COVID is 1) much more easily transmissible than the flu, 2) much more deadly, and 3) does not have a widely available vaccine.

I AM vaccinated and I got my second Pfizer shot over 2 weeks ago so I should be getting the full effect. But I do not find wearing a mask any sort of difficulty and plan to continue doing so in public until people start asking me "what's COVID?" and I will not be patronizing places where there are unmasked people indoors because I consider such people inconsiderate and uncaring about the welfare of others as well as themselves.

The current vaccine is less than 100% effective against existing mutations of the virus and at any point in time, anywhere on the planet, a new mutation could pop up that's almost 100% resistant to the vaccine and even the vaccinated could be exposed to it unknowingly. So what makes sense to me is to continue with "layered" protection. Sure, get vaccinated, but also do the other things that are really no big inconvenience or bother.

At the same time, go ahead and do the things that really matter to you such as travel. And as a society, once most of us are vaccinated (or those who refuse to get vaccinated get infected and either die or recover with immunity), we can return the economy to a normal status, allowing however for those of us who want to remain careful to do so. I, for example, expect from now on I will ALWAYS wear a KN95 mask on public transit or in indoor crowds. At the very least, I'll get fewer colds.

Well, people get flu vaccines every year (but they don't always work, and only half of people bother). But there are some mitigations in places where people are more susceptible (hospitals, communal living areas) during flu season.

COVID has a ~5-10 greater hospitalization rate than the flu, and hospitals are often somewhat burdened during flu season (in fact, probably the size of the burden during flu season sets hospital capacities, to some extent). A sustained r=1.4 COVID every year probably overwhelms hospitals with patients after a few months, but maybe not. Depends on length of stay and stuff like that. It's probably better for everyone just to get vaccinated every year, if necessary.

Right, I'm more concerned about spreading it than getting it at my age, though having just undergone a 14-day quarantine due to exposure (my wife tested positive, we successfully isolated from each other within our unit and I never tested positive), I sure don't want to do that again if I don't have to.

Yeah, I might keep wearing a mask on airplanes (when I travel again) forever, since I always seem to get a cold every time I fly.

As Tony Fauci admitted on TV the other day, "Herd Immunity" is not a thing that either exists or doesn't. It's the end point on a continuity so that as more people have either natural (from infection and recovery) or artificial (for vaccination) immunity, "r" declines and approaches (but may never reach) 0. What most virologists believe is that with 70% plus of the population vaccinated, r for this virus will be close enough to 0 that only sporadic outbreaks will occur, more or less like measles now.

I'll be really surprised if that's necessary and it likely only will be if COVID remains common enough in the developing world that mutations keep popping up frequently. That likely won't happen in places where most of the populace is vaccinated.

As you know, I'm sure, the flu virus is less stable than coronavirus and exists in a greater number of varieties such that mutations are regularly occurring and almost impossible to suppress. Hence the need for a new vaccine every year (the vaccine offered in the northern hemisphere is usually based on the latest mutations and prevalent varieties of virus found that northern summer (southern winter) in the Southern Hemisphere.

But such a pattern of regularly occurring mutations isn't likely in coronavirus, especially if vaccination is widespread even in poorer countries.

Flu has a widely available vaccine that at times is 40% effective, and a HUGE amount of the public never gets.

I know, I've been offering it for years, and lots of people say no. And those are just the people who see the doctor.

Influenza vaccination has never been a prerequisite for normal life, like, ever....

But yes, among the elderly COVID is far more deadly, I'm aware of this

So, let me make sure I am getting you right:

If Covid had the same death rate as the flu, we could deal with a higher r rate. However, since it is a lot more deadly, an r rate of 1 is basically the floor to judge when we are "good to go"?

Flu shots are indeed required in some contexts (e.g. participating in the US Antarctic Program, maybe some retirement homes etc?). They probably should be required in more (universities, service workers). Even if it doesn't help every year, it will help a lot overall.

^ I think that this perspective is perfectly reasonable (although I don't plan on living in so much fear personally, but I'm much younger than you) in the post-vaccine world as long as it transitions to a take the necessary precautions to protect yourself policy as opposed to top-down mandates, which are just so destructive to peoples' livelihoods, economies, and generate so much resentment.

Meh, it's not like we aren't going to keep up with (perhaps?) yearly booster shots for COVID to address the variants.

It's a matter of swapping out the mRNA for the latest variant, shoot it into people, and "poof" you're good. We got this! :tup:

The mood everywhere is so somber, I don't get it. More people should be happy, we are really getting close to the end of the worst of this.

That's not true. See 1918 pandemic.

I wouldn't say "good to go"... but if COVID had the same mortality rate as the flu, but still had a higher reproduction rate (r) then there would still be more people dying of COVID, but just not as many as there are dying now. So it would be a less concerning situation than what we're actually dealing with right now.

Actually, we've seen this situation in the U.S. fairly recently. I believe this was similar to the 2009 swine flu outbreak.

The very first Influenza vaccines weren't even available until the 1940's, long after the Spanish Flu pandemic was over.

So I stand by historic facts: Influenza vaccination has never been a prerequisite for normal life.

Besides, even today millions--perhaps billions--of people never get vaccinated regularly against Influenza.

Okay, but governments did step in to manage the spread of influenza during the 1918 pandemic. If vaccines were available in 1918, it is obvious that government policy would be tailored to the distribution of an influenza vaccine. Our situation today is not without precedent.