For the tri-state.

https://aws1.discourse-cdn.com/busin...b0b1ddfd1.jpeg

Edit: Deaths I believe are new ones today.

This is so true. I absolutely feel for those who are truly stuck in their houses right now. My wife were at least able to get out of the house and do yard work for a few hours yesterday.

Also, wasn't New York (or New Rochelle) technically the first to be infected but unnoticed for a while until the nursing home in Kirkland WA?

Can someone run a quick regression model comparing the number of nonstop flights to Asia at every major airport in the US, with their respective feeder states' per capita COVID cases? k thx

As of today, the Tosh hasidic community, a small town of 4,000 north of Montreal is under quarantine. They seem to be hit pretty hard, and have a lot of back and forthing between Brooklyn and other hasidim in NY state.

https://montrealgazette.com/news/loc...-2c4b727b2d92/

I could if there was raw data but not sure where you'd even find it apart from actually researching the flight info one by one to and from each of these airports. I agree, that would be interesting to see.

First big known cluster probably because it hit a nursing home and people died. There were likely other infections earlier.

New Orleans is one of the largest outbreak zones and there aren't any direct flights from there to Asia.

Yeah, I'm pretty certain that it was in New York much earlier than was thought. Even in Seattle they learned after the fact that people had died of covid-19 before the first known case.

Neat video of a flyover of Austin during the stay at home order.

• Video Link

Ah, true. Many corporations have their own private fleets, too. I was wondering why Midland, Michigan had the first cases and most cases in central Michigan and then I remembered: Dow Chemical's world headquarters are there. There's also huge oil and chemical plants (including Dow) in New Orleans. I'm not trying to come say that's the reason, just that there may be some correlation.

Big companies here (Nike, Intel) put the kibosh on international travel right away, before anyone else (or anyone told them to) and that may be one of the reasons Oregon's numbers are so low despite being adjacent to Washington.

Yeah, it could've also been someone from Dow traveling to other places with major outbreaks, like Europe or New York. I haven't looked closely at when the outbreak happened there.

That all said, we're all in this together. State, provincial, international borders won't prevent it from spreading unless you 100% shut all borders. In a globalized world shutting borders 100% is very difficult. Take one essential product then look out how many states/provinces can make it without any inputs from beyond their borders?

Even with essential personnel it poses problems. Detroit's health care system relies on 100s of staff who trek across the border from Windsor, Ontario each day. Windsor behaves like a bedroom community of Detroit rather than an independent city in another country. Philadelphia draws staff from 4 different states.

I spent part of my childhood in Plattsburgh NY which is spitting distance from Montreal and the QC border so I am familiar with how integrated the two sides are. I also lived in New England where tons of people cross state lines to work. Man, I get it. Again, I have family in NYS and I am very concerned about the situation up there.

Canada - 5,538 tests / 1 million people - 210,435 tests in total (as of March 29, 2020)


https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-tests-canada/

9 out of 61 post office employees showed up — so now no mail:


https://nypost.com/2020/03/30/corona...age-residents/

The US has now done over a million.

The statistic that most correlates with peoples' perception of being able to get tested--and not coincidentally the one the media focuses on--is tests/population (usually 1 million people). But the ability to do tests may be more correlated with total done. At some point, you run short of reagents and all sorts of testing supplies as well as technicians to run them and so on. In addition, it was reported on TV tonight (ABC News) that testing was being inhibited by lack of PPE for testing personnel and simple lack of those testing personnel because everybody with medical training (you need some to stick a swab into somebody's nasopharynx without hurting them) is so busy inside the hospital. Much of the necessary paraphenalia is not necessarily stocked in quantities that are a function of population. In fact, the PCR test that's being done became widely known as the confrimatory test for HIV and new HIV cases have been declining so the equipment and supplies to run the test may have been allowed to attrit.

Wow. Playgrounds down here were the FIRST things closed, weeks ago. Its hard to think of anything that would spread the virus more than a kids playground. Kids don't get bad symptoms but they spread it to everyone else in their family and those around them. And kids constantly touch their mouths and touch things

With the "shelter at home" order, a vast percentage of NYC residents would be forced to be stuck in their cramped apartments. The playgrounds were regarded as open spaces that would allow adults and kids to get their exercise that was allotted to them once a day, since there aren't too many parks within walking distance for most residents. Unfortunately, enough NYC residents are idiots who don't understand what "social distancing" means, so when the weather turned nice on a few days from the past week, they were out playing team basketball, sunbathing, having their kids play together, etc. People were also jogging and cycling en masse at the parks and pathways.

In other words, we had something nice to look forward to for a daily respite, and now we don't because people are people.

Meanwhile, I've been mostly scared to even venture out. I have a large terrace that I can walk out on to, which is a great luxury. And from that terrace, I can see down on the streets people still milling about, and even some people hanging out. It's not as much as people as normally, but considering that almost nobody wears even a basic surgical mask, those are all potential COVID-19 spreaders out there, even if they don't realize it.

I have two friends in their 20s-30s who had moderately severe symptoms that got to the point that they needed to be tested. They are still riding it out in their apartments, and their symptoms vary from day to day. I also have an previous boss who was hospitalized with the swine flu in 2016 and was near death - he contracted COVID-19 (even after I told him to be careful a few weeks ago) and is currently hospitalized in an induced coma while being intubated. It's boring as sh#t to stay inside all the time, but considering the alternative, we just need to ride it out and not stress the medical community more than we are already doing now.

US Metro Areas with most deaths per 1 million inhabitants (Metro Areas with 15+ deaths only)

114.1 New Orleans
68.6 New York City
47.5 Seattle
37.0 Detroit
22.2 Stamford-Bridgeport
20.4 Baton Rouge
18.8 Poughkeepsie-Middleton
14.5 San Jose
9.8 Indianapolis
8.7 Atlanta

Looks like Detroit might be emerging as a new epicentre in addition to the existing ones in New Orleans/Louisiana and the greater NYC area... Its deaths have been increasing significantly faster than in Seattle lately so Detroit will likely overtake it this week. Indianapolis and Atlanta are also cities to keep an eye on because they're in states that don't seem to be testing that much...

We are late to the game in South Florida but it seems we are starting to catch up. We went from 300 cases in Miami-Dade and Broward 3 or 4 days ago to 2838 today. 16 deaths now, most of them in the last 2 days. 26 deaths now in the whole metro (Palm Beach County has had 10 deaths).