BC Population
 

I couldn't find another thread that discussed this, so thought it would be most relevant to economic related factors and post it here.

Stats Can released the quarterly population estimates, and some really positive figures for BC. We know the economic news has been very good for some time (BC expected to be top growth leader in Canada for 2015, 2016, 2017), and that other provinces are struggling. It seems to definitely be translating into high migration figures.

BC had by far the highest interprovincial growth in Canada (net growth from movement between other provinces and BC). In fact, it was the highest growth since 1995 for the province. We were the only jurisdiction to gain population from everywhere else in Canada (we gained more people from each province and territory than we lost). Especially noticeable, we gained 2,316 from Alberta, the most since the early 90's. Below are the total net figures:

BC: +6,315
AB: +1,234
ON: +1,207
NL: -28
NWT: -33
NVT: -117
YK: -310
PEI: -354
NS: -593
SK: -639
NB: -1,107
MB: -1,937
QC: -3,638

Unlike international migration, which usually isn't tied to economic performance, interprovincial migration is very much dictated by current economic conditions (ie. Quebec has always received lots of immigration despite underwhelming economy for decades, and Ontario has always had a high number even when other provinces outperformed it). The fact that BC is so far ahead of 2nd place Alberta and Ontario (6,300 vs. 1,200 for them) says a lot. It really feels like the province is a clear leader right now in a lot of measures such as employment growth (highest in the country), retail growth, tourism, tech, and now population increase. I know obviously not everything is rosy, but we are definitely more than holding our own here in BC. Link to the full report below:

A blurb direct from the Stats Can press release:
"According to preliminary estimates, net interprovincial migration was positive in only three provinces: Ontario (+0.01%, or 1,200), Alberta (+0.03%, or 1,200) and British Columbia (+0.13%, or 6,300). For the latter two provinces, net migration changed a great deal between the third quarters of 2014 and 2015. Net interprovincial migration doubled in British Columbia (from +3,600 to +6,300)—the highest level since 1995. In Alberta, however, it was divided by more than six from the previous level (from +8,100 to +1,200)"

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-002-x/91-002-x2015003-eng.pdf

Thanks for the info! Excellent post!

Interesting considering how often I hear about young people leaving Vancouver because of the high cost of living.

I think you're probably right about people leaving Vancouver itself, but they probably stay in BC, higher up the Valley, or in the Interior, Vancouver Island, and so forth.

Good details, thanks. I wonder what those numbers look like historically. They all seem pretty low to me, is this a normal low movement year?

The 2016 census (with long form back!) should provide some interesting details. It will be after a few strong BC years.

Are you sure it's not just many people moving back home because of the down turn in oil sands? Also there a lot of retiring in Alberta (and the rest of Canada) who are moving to BC.

I believe that the interior and the Island are growing much slower than Metro. I would expect over half of the interprovincial migration is coming to Vancouver. The North is growing fast, but has a small population so numbers wise it isn't a huge factor yet.

Well, the huge number of high-rise condo/rental construction projects around the Lower Mainland should be a strong indication that we are trying to house many more new comers, compared to other major Canadian cities outside BC. Other than Toronto, I don't think I can see so many high-density developments outside major city cores in this country.

The article is about BC. There is a lot out space outside of Vancouver to move to.

Good maybe Chad will stop his "Alberta is gonna surpass BC in population" doomsday clock.

^ I wouldn't count on it...

Ya but the majority of the growth is occurring in the LM, both population and economic.

Vancouver and BC in general have always been a preferred destination for Canadian migraants for various reasons (lifestyle, retirees, weather, etc). What is different now is that with the strong economy here, it's not just a "pretty place with mild weather" but the outlook here is better than most of Canadian. Whas happening is a perfect storm of people already wanting to come here because its "Lotusland", people coming for more jobs, as well as less people being drawn to other places in Canada. We are lucky, because places like Manitoba (and others) have a decent economy, low unemployment, and it even isnt enough to keep its own people, let along attract from other places (its sad because its a good place, yet is the worst performer of the last decade for losses in migration, 2nd only to perennial favourite Quebec :)

A FIRE economy is not a strong economy.

I don't know if that is the case or not with interprovincial.

Vancouver has more foreign immigration. Places like Vancouver Island and the interior are more driven by internal migration (from the Lower Mainland or Inter provincial).

After jobs in northern BC dried up due to the downturn in the forest sector I think was a certain move of people into the Alberta oil sector. Now with that going down, I don't know how much of this people moving back "Home".

Are you trolling or trying to make a case that Vancouver has Finance and Insurance industries? Because we don't.

Young people almost always move to the closest major city upon graduation.

Since the largest city in Western Canada is Vancouver, it would makes sense that Vancouver would get a bulk of the migration from saskatchewan and Alberta. Especially now that those 2 provinces are struggling.

Vancouver will probably hit 3 million people by 2025

Yah some of the confusion is "Vancouver" vs Vancouver. When people talk about moving to "Vancouver" they mean "Metro-Vancouver" aka including the outlying cities, like Burnaby, Surrey, Coquitlam, etc.

When people talk about Vancouver being un-affordable they really mean Vancouver itself excluding the outlying cities, like Burnaby, Surrey, Coquitlam, etc.

Two different things. So like was said, people leaving Vancouver due to it being un-affordable often just move out to the suburbs so are still in BC and in Metro-Vancouver or maybe the Valley (Abbotsford -> Chilliwack).

WarrenC12, as for the small number I'd imagine that is the final tally when you take into account people leaving and people coming. So the actual numbers may be greater on both sides but A + B = 6300 people.

So for example if 550,000 people left BC but 556,300 people came to BC that is a 556,300 - 550,000 = +6300 positive gain. Could explain why the numbers seem low. Made up those numbers clearly because I don't see them in the .PDF document, but that's my best guess on why the numbers seem small.

Great posts all over and so happy to see the trend changing. I think BC has a lot going for itself these days and we should expect a lot of growth in the years to come. What makes me happy is that the developers seem to be prepared for this and the huge amount of major projects in progress and far in the pipeline reflects that they are not going to sit idle and have the problem pile up.

I am sure that the growth will still overtake the number of new housing built, which is why cities should really look into the problem of vacant investment houses. Also, does it make federal sense to be bringing lots of these Syrian refugees to Lower Mainland, where country's economic growth is taking place but housing is scarce. I don't believe that we have any shortage of employees at Lower Mainland, so perhaps settle more of these people in other provinces in the first place and let them re-locate later once they have established themselves in Canada.

Mortgages and home insurance. :)

Disagree with this, Vancouver proper is understandably expensive, but Vancouver suburbs - with the exception of the north half of Surrey - are obscenely and illogically expensive relative to other North American cities. Like San Francisco and Manhattan are expensive but at least you can find something reasonable and still nice 45 minutes out. Not here.

Looking at rents in New West, surrey, Coquitlam, etc, I find them quite cheap overall. Sorry but a private 1 bedroom apartment for $800 a month isn't that expensive to me, anyone can afford that and for those who cannot, you can easily rent with 2 people, thats now only $400 a month.

I wasn't talking about renting. Renting has always been OK everywhere in the city.

Metro Vancouver is still loosing residents to the rest of the province and rest of the country, and allot of them. The city of Vancouver is hemorrhaging residents. New provincial stats will be out shortly.

BC is big and this year there will be many BC residents returning home after losing their jobs in Alberta. Most of these people will be returning to cities in eastern and northern BC. Not to metro Vancouver, thats a place to leave for long time citizens / residents.
http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/Demography/Mobility.aspx

Are you claiming Metro Vancouver is declining? I don't think thats accurate at all.

Yes I am saying exactly that, and I provided rock solid proof that cant be argued against. Metro Vancouver is losing residents, and those residents are being replaced by new immigrants to Canada. All growth in metro Vancouver is via immigration to Canada. And the stats show that even the Fraser valley is now losing residents as well. The birth rate in Metro Vancouver is abysmal, and I would say that of long term residents its going to be among the lowest in the world (but this part is just my observation and there are no stats out there to prove this). Personally I think Canada has some major policy problems that are hurting Canadian citizens en mass. But with the level of PCness I don't expect anything to change anytime soon and Canadians will continue suffering for no reason. Because when people get pushed out of their community then it is because they are suffering.

So you obviously did not open my link here it is for reference again http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/Statist.../Mobility.aspx

Cheers,

interesting assumption
if people leave the Vancouver area, do they still work in Metro Vancouver ? But I find it surprising that, not only they choose to leave Vancouver, but they leave the CMA? Habitually, people will leave the urban core for the suburbs (inside the CMA), but rarely leave the CMA.

Very interesting indeed. (click on the excel or first pdf file for those of you that are confused).

People are leaving Greater Vancouver for other parts of the province at a rate of ~3000-4000 people per year.

People are moving to the Fraser Valley from other parts of the province by about ~1000 people per year.

Between 2003 and 2011 people were moving to Vancouver from other provinces by about 3000 people per year, but between 2012 and 2014 moved away from Vancouver to other provinces by about 2000 per year.

Meanwhile, international migration has brought 25,000 to 40,000 per year moving into Greater Vancouver and ~1500 per year moving into Fraser Valley.

If the rate of population loss in Metro Vancouver is made up by 10x the number of immigrants settling in the area, you can hardly call that "Metro Vancouver population decline" as noted above.

I think he understands that.

I think his point is while tons of international immigrants are moving to Vancouver, Vancouverites are moving to other places in BC.

And even though BC has been getting a lot of migrants from other provinces, they are not going to Metro Vancouver or Fraser Valley, they are mostly moving to other areas in the province.

However, it is also completely possible that many of the immigrants that move to Vancouver make up a large share of those who move away from the city eventually. But theres not enough information to tell one way or the other.

Just wait until the boomers start dying off (en masse!) in about 10-15 years from now. Huge population adjustment.

this thought keeps me up at night.

We'll be in a new golden age of lower healthcare costs and support payments. :cheers:

Anecdotally I know a lot of people planning to leave Vancouver, but I know equally large numbers of people from elsewhere in Canada who want to move here.

Greater Vancouver is not declining in the slightest but it is not growing nearly as fast as it could especially from inter-provincial migration. Mention to anyone outside BC the first thing they think of when they think of Vancouver and the word "expensive" is their first response. BC is referred to as Bring Cash. It greatly inhibits the skilled moving here and is an incentive for the skilled to leave.

Still, primarily due to immigration, Vancouver's population is steady and decent at about 1.2% per year. The number of condos going up may look like it is growing much faster than it is but that is, like all of North America, more of an indication of changing demographics than it is of strong population growth.

To use my family as an example.............We were a family of 6 with 4 kids in Ontario under one roof. Now my sister has only one child and with dad gone we are still a family of 6 but occupy 5 different residences. All situations are different, most families will have more kids, and people move into the house we vacated but I think you see my point.

Also Vancouver's condo boom is also related to the fact that Vancouver city has a very low birth rate primarily due to kids being expensive and affording even a 2 bedroom condo is beyond the reach of many.

It is for these reasons, amongst others, that the city itself isn't growing very quickly and not nearly as quickly as one would think with all the new towers. The growing population in the high rises is off set by the declining population in more established areas where the family of 6 in Kerrisdale or Marpole in the 1970s may now only have Mom and/or Dad still living in it.

Although it is true that between 2012-2014 Vancouver lost residents to other provinces, the general interpovincial migration for the entire province was also lower in these years. The figues I postred starting this thread are brand new as of Oct. 1 2015, showing the highest provincial interprovincial migration since 1995. I'd suspect (i could be wrong, but somehow don't think so) that when the full breakdown of 2015 is released next year, it will show Metro vancouver gained population from other provinces, not lost. We likely still lost to other parts of BC because that is an historic trend, but I suspect we gained quite a few interprovincially. The province gained a net 6,300 people in 1 quarter, I can bet a decent portion of that went to metro van!

I wonder if people show up in Vancouver from other parts of Canada without much of a plan, and then realize there are good resource jobs in the hinterlands and move there. Ditto if you move here for some kind of trades or school program.

I know plenty of people who moved here from Ontario and actually find the cost of living here less. They are renting mind you, but overall, the cost of living here for regular items isn't any more expensive than elsewhere. I find food costs between Vancouver and Calgary are pretty much the same, rent out there is higher (I looked), and energy costs are WAY higher. Real estate and gas is more expensive here however, it's overall a tie.

I always assumed that the negative intraprovincial migration for Vancouver was people cashing out and moving to Parksville, Sooke, wherever. If I was near retirement age I'd probably do that myself.

The high housing prices really are a killer when it comes to trying to get people to move here for a job - especially when you are hiring mid-level positions (i.e. for people senior enough to want a house but not so high up the pay scale that money is no object). We've been trying to hire someone for 6 months at my work and have had a few good candidates turn the job down once they looked at housing prices vs. what we were offering in salary.

I remember reading sometime ago that local tech companies are having troubles of even finding executives willing to move to Vancouver because of the housing prices. Even with salaries in the hundreds of thousands many are apparently coming to the conclusion that they can make the same (or more) elsewhere and having not to pay nearly as much for housing.

If there is any truth to that, we really have a problem if even C-level staff is unwilling to pay Vancouver prices.

I was thinking about NHL free agency today and even NHL players, who are basically mercenaries, would be like "gee whiz, a house in Vancouver costs me a whole year's salary" and not sign here.