Detroit then and now: An infographic.

[AccraGhana]

Originally Posted by jonathan.jam

Accra: New York was doing really bad in the 70s economically, similar to Detroit. Yet, the tides began to turn when reforms were implemented and sound, stable governance occurred.

Coincidence is not causation Jonathan. It may be true that New York was doing bad, but how do you control for the economic situation of the nation at that time, to create the conclusion that it was doing bad as a result of bad governance? Furthermore, how do you control for and isolate NYC turnaround to be the result of change in governance and leadership and filter out the influence of an improved national or regional economy? I mean....NYC grew for decades while being heavily under the influence of the Mafia....and so did Chicago. Thus, growth is not a function of simply good governance.

[animatedmartian]

Depending on which article you read, NYC was bailed out by the federal government in the 70s which is what saved the city. Or so they say...

[JonathanGRR]

I am not arguing that it is purely because of good governance, but it certainly is a large factor. The current state of Detroit cannot be attributed to any one problem; instead, it has been caused by a wide array of issues. I am merely entertaining the thought that better governance could have made some of these issues easier to deal with before they got out-of-hand.

[AccraGhana]

Originally Posted by jonathan.jam

I am not arguing that it is purely because of good governance, but it certainly is a large factor. The current state of Detroit cannot be attributed to any one problem; instead, it has been caused by a wide array of issues. I am merely entertaining the thought that better governance could have made some of these issues easier to deal with before they got out-of-hand.

I agree that good governance or bad governance is not neutral in its impact. However, I often see the issue being akin to lowering the grade on a math test because of misspelled terms. One’s proficiency at math is really not a function of spelling proficiency. Thus, although it may be true to point out our note spelling deficiencies, it’s really not relevant to the larger task at hand, which is mathematics. Hence, I often see the focus on corruption and incompetence to be nothing more than obfuscation and misdirection from the real causes.

The unfortunate reality is that we live in a world full of deception and denial. There are many causes to many of the problems that people want to keep quiet. Real change and real solutions starts with the truth but with truth suppressed the way it is….it becomes hard to bring about real change and solutions.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by AccraGhana

That having been said, I am not sure why more people do not bring up the inconsistencies of the Detroit population count. The year 2000 enumeration included an effort by the city to get as many people counted as possible. Such efforts were a continuation of such efforts by Coleman Young because revenues from the state to cities in Michigan were allocated based upon the population counts and hence it was to the interest of the city to get as many people counted as possible. Thus, in 2000 such as effort was made, as well as, the city, along with others, sued claiming a minority undercount. The cities won and hence Detroit population for the 2000 census was bumped up by about 55,000 people. Keep that in mind.

I very seriously doubt that there is significant miscounting of Detroit's population. I also doubt that household size attributes much at all to Detroit's population slide. Detroit's black resident population has only declined once in history and that was during 2000-2010. Detroit's population losses was never, until very recently, caused by a contraction in the population of black residents.

Originally Posted by AccraGhana

would like to conclude by saying that the housing bubble and the subprime fiasco is what triggered the massive outflow of African Americans from many large urban centers out into suburbia. People in inner ring suburbs were allowed to move up into better homes further out, but they needed someone to buy their old homes first and the subprime market and lending allowed many blacks to afford or get into those suburban homes for the first time. The area shifted out form the center with everyone trying to move up and out a litter further from where they were, creating a hole in the middle (Detroit). It will be interesting to see if the outmigration of African Americans from cities continue at the same pace of last decade, without the housing bubble to drive it.

I agree 100% that the housing bubble contributed to Detroit's population decline from 2000 - 2010. It's really the only way to explain the abrupt reversal in the trajectory of Detroit's black population, which had never once posted a net decline until the 2010 census.

[hudkina]

Corruption and incompetence can be overlooked when there's enough fat on the bone (as is the case in places like Chicago and New York), but when they're cutting into the bone (as in Detroit), they become major issues.

Granted, Detroit will probably have to go through a clean-sweep bankruptcy if it ever wants to be financially solvent. There are just too many obligations and debts held by the city that are eating up money that could otherwise go to improving safety and stabilizing neighborhoods. I'm sure there will be the obligatory "Detroit is bankrupt" thread with the usual suspects throwing in their snide comments, but once it's over the city will have a much better financial standing to coincide with the private sector-driven revitalization of the Greater Downtown area.

[JonathanGRR]

Agreed. Going through bankruptcy and even getting an EMF *gasp* will help Detroit in the long-run.

[AccraGhana]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I very seriously doubt that there is significant miscounting of Detroit's population. I also doubt that household size attributes much at all to Detroit's population slide. Detroit's black resident population has only declined once in history and that was during 2000-2010. Detroit's population losses was never, until very recently, caused by a contraction in the population of black residents.

Certainly it is your prerogative to be doubtful, however, you provide no reason. Again, I do not know if there is a miscounting or not. What I do know is that things that were done in 2000 were NOT done in 2010. What I KNOW is that there was an adjustment to the count in 2000, after the official count, but no adjustment was done in 2010. I know that there have been massive efforts made by previous mayors to rally the city to get everyone counted, because federal and state funds to the city was based upon population counts. Hence, not getting everyone counted meant less federal and state aid. Mayor Bing made no such efforts. Thus, as i said, the count may be accurate....but it is then it throws into question the accuracy of the previous census results, which used adjustments and which had the city in an effort to be fully counted.

It is certainly evident in Detroit that something major happened with the population the previous decade.....but I do not accept that it was as major as reported. How much abandoned housing exists in NY? In what city can poor homeless people find abandoned houses to squat in like in Detroit? How do you ensure that you count those people if they do not want to be counted?

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by AccraGhana

It is certainly evident in Detroit that something major happened with the population the previous decade.....but I do not accept that it was as major as reported. How much abandoned housing exists in NY? In what city can poor homeless people find abandoned houses to squat in like in Detroit? How do you ensure that you count those people if they do not want to be counted?

Having grown up in Detroit in the 80s and 90s, and having spent most of the 2000 decade living away from Detroit, it is shocking to me how empty the city looks now compared to what the way I remember it when I lived there. So while it's through anecdotal observation, I really don't have a hard time believing at all that the population has declined in the way that the census has stated.

[AccraGhana]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Having grown up in Detroit in the 80s and 90s, and having spent most of the 2000 decade living away from Detroit, it is shocking to me how empty the city looks now compareId to what the way I remember it when I lived there. So while it's through anecdotal observation, I really don't have a hard time believing at all that the population has declined in the way that the census has stated.

So at what figure would you have engaged disbelief? If they had concluded that 400,000 people left.....would you have believed that because of what you witnessed? Detroit, a city that once housed nearly 2 million people, has an oversupply of housing relative to the population. Hence, populations can simply "shift" into other areas of the city, while the housing stock in other areas of the city get torn down. In other words, if there are 20,000 abandoned homes, the clearing of those homes will make the city look a lot emptier without that necessarily meaning that the city population has shrank. If all the now abandoned homes in Detroit were torn down in a day, the city would look much emptier. Thus, a city oversupplied with housing units makes it more difficult to judge the population loss by observation alone, when those units get torn down. I don't by any means accept the 2010 census figures...and neither did SEMCOG and other Michigan governmental agencies who had be tracking the population and doing estimates.

[animatedmartian]

I live near the northeast side of the city by 8 Mile and Gratiot. I can confirm that more people are indeed leaving the city. In fact you can see it on satellite images.

One image is from Bing and the other is from Google. The images are only a few years apart maybe even less. On Novara street, you can see that most of the homes are occupied.



However, a few years later and quite a few of them have uncut grass, missing windows and doors, and even some of them are burnt out. These images can't be anymore than 3 years apart. Unfortunately there's not really a time stamp on the aerial views.



Even more telling is that the street view images are dated 2009. The aerial views are probably after 2010.





There you have it folks, urban decay in action.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by AccraGhana

So at what figure would you have engaged disbelief? If they had concluded that 400,000 people left.....would you have believed that because of what you witnessed?

I really don't find nitpicking over the exact number of Detroit's population to be a very productive exercise. Point blank: the city has significantly declined in population, and that's pretty obvious.

[AccraGhana]

Originally Posted by animatedmartian

I live near the northeast side of the city by 8 Mile and Gratiot. I can confirm that more people are indeed leaving the city. In fact you can see it on satellite images.

One image is from Bing and the other is from Google. The images are only a few years apart maybe even less. On Novara street, you can see that most of the homes are occupied.



However, a few years later and quite a few of them have uncut grass, missing windows and doors, and even some of them are burnt out. These images can't be anymore than 3 years apart. Unfortunately there's not really a time stamp on the aerial views.



Even more telling is that the street view images are dated 2009. The aerial views are probably after 2010.





There you have it folks, urban decay in action.

While in the meantime NEW residents are moving into lofts in Midtown and downtown. I do not think that anyone doubts that people are leaving Detroit and that decay is spreading, as the inflow in no way caps the outflow. Part of the problem is that the economy has not recovered and people are on shaky grounds...which results in people not being able to pay their mortgage and rent and hence housing gets vacated. The question is where do such people then go? If you lose your job and have to abandon your home....you don't move into a home or apartment in the suburb. Rather, likely you move in with other family members or move back into your parents home. When housing is abandoned, it does not always mean that people have moved out of the city.

Times are hard economically and the unemployment rate for African Americans is around 14 percent nationally and about 30% nationally when you include discouraged workers and those who are working only part time who would like to work full time. So a City like Detroit is really hard hit given that it is 85% black.

In the early part of 2000, Michigan was in a one state recession. This meant that people could easily move to other parts of the country and find work, especially places like Atlanta and North Carolina. However, opportunity in those places have dried up also, unless you have certain skill sets in demand. So unlike in the 2000's, there are not a lot of places to run and escape from Detroit to.....if you do not have certain skill sets. Thus, again, were do the people go?

[AccraGhana]

Detroit has been devastated by the housing bubble and sub prime lending practices of the last decade. Far too many people were allowed to move into housing that they could not afford.....which infected stable middle class black communities in the city with decay once the people who moved into those communities defaulted and the homes became abandoned and run down, which then inspired others to move from those stable communities. Those abandoned houses are like cancer cells that need to be torn down immediately....to save the rest of the block.

[AccraGhana]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I really don't find nitpicking over the exact number of Detroit's population to be a very productive exercise. Point blank: the city has significantly declined in population, and that's pretty obvious.

Of course not.....because you have no independent means of counting people and likely have nothing to gain or lose regardless of what the count is. All you can really do is accept whatever the government tells you. That is true for you as well as me. My point is, however, not dependent upon the being able to independently verify the counts. My point is based upon things that were done in 2000, that impacted the final count, that were not done in 2010. I mean.....any person with such knowledge would conclude, at the very least, that the change between the decades is highly suspect. It does not matter to me what the actual count is. What matters to me is consistency in the means. If there is no consistency in methods from decade to decade, then one cannot accurately determine how much have changed from decade to decade. What is the result of actual population changes and what is the result of different methods? No one, using scientific reasoning, would trust such results.

Let me say this, however, and its something that I deeply believe. I believe that the Detroit region foreshadows America's future. If the Detroit region does not recover and continues its decline then such is the fate of America as well. The only thing that is keeping that from being true today is that the Detroit region cannot print money and does not have a ready purchaser of any government bonds issued to cover its short falls, as is the case with the Federal Government. If the Federal government had to run balanced budgets and pay off its funded and unfunded liabilities and kept books according to generally accepted accounting practices.....America would be in a similar, if not worse, shape as the Detroit area and wherever it is that you live....would not escape the fallout.

[Rizzo]

Originally Posted by animatedmartian

I live near the northeast side of the city by 8 Mile and Gratiot. I can confirm that more people are indeed leaving the city. In fact you can see it on satellite images.

One image is from Bing and the other is from Google. The images are only a few years apart maybe even less. On Novara street, you can see that most of the homes are occupied.



However, a few years later and quite a few of them have uncut grass, missing windows and doors, and even some of them are burnt out. These images can't be anymore than 3 years apart. Unfortunately there's not really a time stamp on the aerial views.



Even more telling is that the street view images are dated 2009. The aerial views are probably after 2010.





There you have it folks, urban decay in action.

Yeah but from the housing survey data I have it appears that area was hurt more by foreclosure than people simply up and leaving because of crime, schools, etc. Had many of those properties been properly secured that scrapping never would have happened and those homes would have been completely serviceable for new occupants on a housing rebound.

Michigan needs to ban scrap metal resale from common, unlicensed citizens to curb the scrapping of good real estate in the city. I think it's just as serious of a problem as violent crime. This would come at the state level. To do that the state would also have to ditch the stupid and antiquated beverage can deposit law.

[AccraGhana]

Originally Posted by Hayward

Yeah but from the housing survey data I have it appears that area was hurt more by foreclosure than people simply up and leaving because of crime, schools, etc. Had many of those properties been properly secured that scrapping never would have happened and those homes would have been completely serviceable for new occupants on a housing rebound.

Michigan needs to ban scrap metal resale from common, unlicensed citizens to curb the scrapping of good real estate in the city. I think it's just as serious of a problem as violent crime. This would come at the state level. To do that the state would also have to ditch the stupid and antiquated beverage can deposit law.

I would tend to agree. Again, its a propensity to always assume the worst possibility when it comes to Detroit. Every time a house is vacated or abandoned it does not mean that the people have moved out of the city.

I think the extent of the housing crisis and sub prime fiasco is responsible for the majority Detroit's woes the last decade. Without the housing bubble Detroit's population would have stabilized due to to few whites left in the city for white flight to continue create double digit percentage loss of population per decade. Suburban opportunities would not have manifested to the degree that they did, without a housing climate of low interest rates and low lending standards which allowed people in inner ring suburbs to move up and out into newer homes or to leave the area all together. The only pool of people willing to buy those homes were Detroiters as the inner ring suburbs lost marketability with new home buyers outside of Detroit, but was seen as a step up for many Detroiters. Thus, previous intransigence that existed for decades, in regards to residential integration in many inner ring suburbs, was pushed to the side in the rush to sell homes and profit from the market.

[JonathanGRR]

Emergency manager for Detroit on its way
Nolan Finley | February 10, 2013

While Mayor Dave Bing is preparing to give his State of the City address Wednesday night, Gov. Rick Snyder is waiting to hear from his choice of an emergency manager to take over Bing's responsibilities for running Detroit.

Sources tell me that Snyder has selected an emergency manager, offered the person the job and expects to hear this week whether he or she will take it. While I don't have the name, the prospect is said to be from out of state, and it's not former Washington, D.C., Mayor Anthony Williams — the governor's first choice.

If the answer is yes, the naming of an emergency manager will come perhaps as soon as the end of the month.

The three-person financial review team has set a soft deadline of this Saturday for releasing its report on Detroit's long-term prospects. That report is the other piece Snyder needs before naming an emergency manager.

In an interview Friday with The Detroit News, the governor said little to discourage the notion that an emergency manager is imminent. While he commended city leaders for recent steps they've taken to cut spending, he added, "It would have been even better had they done it months ago."

From The Detroit News: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/2...#ixzz2KWE338NA

[ssiguy]

While it is certainly great to see areas like Midtown growing and developing the real questions about the new residents is will they stay?

Getting the young to move and invest downtown is promising but much less so in Detroit because when they hit their late 20's and early 30's they begin to think about children. That's when the problems start.

An adult can learn to live with some violence and scenes of dispair but that doesn't mean they will want to subject their children to it. Also, where are these kids going to go to school?

The younger hipsters who move downtown tend to be fairly well educated and therfore put an emphasis on educational attainment. No one in their right minds will want to send their kids to a dilapitated and crime ridden Detroit school where drop out rates are very high and the availability of cheap drugs is as close as the school yard.

Even if Detroit somehow found the money to build a new primary and secondary school to fill the need of the children moving into the growing hipster areas that brings up a real and valid question of equity.

While the long term and impoverished {mostly black] risidents have to send their kids to schools of complete dispair the wealthy kids of the people moving back to Midtown {mostly white} get a new school and amenities. Hardly fair and reeks of racism and elitism.

Not meaning to put a downer on the growing parcels of Detroit but those are real issues that Detroit must overcome.

[JonathanGRR]

In doing a quick google search, this is what I came up with for private schools in Detroit (proper):
-Archdiocese of Detroit Office for Catholic Schools
-Detroit Waldorf School
-University of Detroit Jesuit High School & Academy
-Most Holy Trinity School

It doesn't look like there are many options in private schools either, until you get out into the suburbs. If a transit plan was put into place, I wonder if people would be willing to commute out of the city to go to private schools in the suburbs?