Q4 2023 GDP, 50 States & DC

[Crawford]

Is Tokyo really affordable? Rent to income ratios are low relative to other global cities?

[Yuri]

I didn't get deep on Tokyo's real estate affordability except from those articles that pop up from time to time on Bloomberg and other outlets. I assume, however, it's cheaper than it was previously to the bubble burst.

It's just another example on how GDP converted on USD don't tell much on how things work on the ground. Hence the 2011 US$ 13,000 GDP per capita Brazil was materially poorer than the 2021 US$ 8,000 GDP per capita Brazil.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

This website is centered around urban infrastructure like high speed passenger rail and subways but those things are ancillary to other types of improvements and then the general character of the land.

The U.S. has the greatest system of interior navigable waterways in the world. There is more cargo traversing America's navigable rivers than every other river in the world combined. Transport by river barge is significantly cheaper than ocean shipping because the equipment is significantly less sophisticated and can be operated by unsophisticated crews that require just 2-3 days of training.

On top of this, the US has the largest continuous swath of farmland on the globe. It's much more efficient to farm X amount of land when it's contiguous and served by the above-mentioned waterway system as compared to the same amount of farmland but divided into 10+ pockets. The U.S. Midwestern farmbelt is like the Saudi oil fields compared to having the same amount of oil but in 25 different pockets that each require different technology to access and refine.

People here don't want to believe that the U.S. has fundamental advantages but it really does.

Navigable waterways haven't been that important since the invention of the railroad. Railroads were a HUGE productivity booster for developed economies like the United States. They are still pretty critical for moving goods long distances, but they are complimented by trucking and shipping by air. You can build an airport almost anywhere so shipping by air isn't really a problem for developing countries. But many lack the quality of road and rail connections that developed countries have built.

[Steely Dan]

^ rail and water are still the only economical ways to move bulk cargo over long distances.

No one is gonna move coal, ore, stone, grain, petroleum, etc. 1,000+ miles by truck or airplane.

And America/Canada still move shit-tons of bulk cargo via water thanks to our continent"s unparalleled interior waterways.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Navigable waterways haven't been that important since the invention of the railroad. Railroads were a HUGE productivity booster for developed economies like the United States.

Most of the locks & dams on the Ohio and Upper Mississippi were rebuilt in the 1960s to the same dimensions as the Panama Canal (110x1200) to enable 15-barge tows to travel straight through without having to break up the tow. The tows that operate on the Lower Mississippi are not confined to lock dimensions and are without equal anywhere else in the world: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wa2O8MMUyds

The U.S. has, by far, the most freight railroad miles with double-stack clearance. This was enabled, in part, because the country has relatively few electrified lines and relatively few tunnels. By contrast, Europe has many more tunnels and many more miles with overhead catenary.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

No one is gonna move coal, ore, stone, grain, petroleum, etc. 1,000+ miles by truck or airplane.

I worked for a company 10 years ago that somehow got an account with Kate Spade's women's handbag sweat shop in Rwanda. I remember writing up the paperwork to ship them two skids of completely ordinary packaging materials via DHL. I looked at the place on Google Earth and it was literally a 6,000 foot air strip surrounded by a few small warehouses. No paved roads led to or from the airport & warehouse complex. It was an island of sweat shop labor out there in the middle of nowhere.

The stuff we shipped from the U.S. to Africa was stuff that you could easily buy at any Staples or Office Depot. Tape, tape guns, packing paper, bubble wrap, etc.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

I worked for a company 10 years ago that somehow got an account with Kate Spade's women's handbag sweat shop in Rwanda. I remember writing up the paperwork to ship them two skids of completely ordinary packaging materials via DHL. I looked at the place on Google Earth and it was literally a 6,000 foot air strip surrounded by a few small warehouses. No paved roads led to or from the airport & warehouse complex. It was an island of sweat shop labor out there in the middle of nowhere.

The stuff we shipped from the U.S. to Africa was stuff that you could easily buy at any Staples or Office Depot. Tape, tape guns, packing paper, bubble wrap, etc.

its seems one man’s “sweatshop” was another person’s well publicized at the time way for women to earn above average income in war torn rwanda —

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-40682888


Around 150 people, mainly women, work at Abahizi Dushyigikirane Corporation, known as ADC

[ChiMIchael]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

This website is centered around urban infrastructure like high speed passenger rail and subways but those things are ancillary to other types of improvements and then the general character of the land.

The U.S. has the greatest system of interior navigable waterways in the world. There is more cargo traversing America's navigable rivers than every other river in the world combined. Transport by river barge is significantly cheaper than ocean shipping because the equipment is significantly less sophisticated and can be operated by unsophisticated crews that require just 2-3 days of training.

On top of this, the US has the largest continuous swath of farmland on the globe. It's much more efficient to farm X amount of land when it's contiguous and served by the above-mentioned waterway system as compared to the same amount of farmland but divided into 10+ pockets. The U.S. Midwestern farmbelt is like the Saudi oil fields compared to having the same amount of oil but in 25 different pockets that each require different technology to access and refine.

People here don't want to believe that the U.S. has fundamental advantages but it really does.

My issue with this narrative is that most of these areas aren't particularly prosperous at this moment.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

its seems one man’s “sweatshop” was another person’s well publicized at the time way for women to earn above average income in war torn rwanda —

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-40682888

That's a puff piece - basically a paid advertisement in everything but name. No quotes from critics and all of the photographs were provided by...Kate Spade.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by ChiMIchael

My issue with this narrative is that most of these areas aren't particularly prosperous at this moment.

Come on. That's like saying the farming in California's Central Valley doesn't benefit the whole United States just because Bakersfield and Fresno don't attract tourists. The eastern US "imports" almonds, etc., from California in the same way that the west coast and east coast "import" all of the crops and beef/poultry/dairy that is produced cheaply in the Midwest and moved cheaply away from it via many cross-country railroads and modern highways.

The US transportation network has very few pinch-points that are privately controlled. The Ambassador Bridge in Detroit is a rare example, and it is being bypassed. Meanwhile, many other countries are hamstrung by oligarch-type characters who control ports, bridges, tunnels, airports, etc. The U.S. is just way too big for one bad actor to have significant influence.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

The stuff we shipped from the U.S. to Africa was stuff that you could easily buy at any Staples or Office Depot. Tape, tape guns, packing paper, bubble wrap, etc.

right, but those are all finished goods, which are frequently shipped via airplane.

my point was about moving bulk raw materials like ore and coal and grain.

water is still the most efficient way to move such giant loads of bulk cargo, and secondarily, when a water route isn't available, rail is the only other practical option for long distance movement of such.


no one is moving a 100,000 ton load of coal 3,000 miles via airplanes, LOL!

[jbermingham123]

Agree with everything you've said.

Unfortunately this:

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

The U.S. is just way too big for one bad actor to have significant influence.

is changing, fast.

As i said a few pages ago, private equity/asset securitization is the new hot thing in finance. This is what Blackstone specializes in and why its had such a meteoric ascent. In just a few short years, the physical infrastructure in this country is going to be as centralized in the hands of a few as it is everywhere else, unfortunately.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

That was a very minor bridge. 30,000 vehicles per day doesn't place it on even the top 100 most important bridges in the United States and maybe not the top 500.

By "major bridge" I thought we were talking about the size/scale of the bridge itself, not traffic volumes.

The Mackinac Bridge, connecting Michigan's lower and upper peninsulas across Lake Huron-Michigan, only carries an average of ~12,00 vehicles per day, but at 5 miles in total length, and with a main central span of 3,800' in length (3rd longest in the nation), it is a "major bridge" in every sense of the phrase, especially so when it was completed back in 1957 (2nd longest main span the world had ever seen up to that point).



Source: https://www.localmemphis.com/article...e/69-487957890



Given the gigantic size of the newer container ships now going in and out of Baltimore's port, I'm expecting the Key bridge's replacement to be a very major bridge undertaking (>2,000' main span), with perhaps the longest cable-stayed main span in the nation, surpassing that of the U/C Gordie Howe bridge in Detroit (2,800'). China is now building cable-stayed bridges with main spans pushing ever closer to 4,000'!!!

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

I worked for a company 10 years ago that somehow got an account with Kate Spade's women's handbag sweat shop in Rwanda. I remember writing up the paperwork to ship them two skids of completely ordinary packaging materials via DHL. I looked at the place on Google Earth and it was literally a 6,000 foot air strip surrounded by a few small warehouses. No paved roads led to or from the airport & warehouse complex. It was an island of sweat shop labor out there in the middle of nowhere.

The stuff we shipped from the U.S. to Africa was stuff that you could easily buy at any Staples or Office Depot. Tape, tape guns, packing paper, bubble wrap, etc.

Funny. I worked at Kate Spade corporate at the time. I have distinct memories of this project and 1. it was not a sweatshop, far from it, 2. the company was looking for ways to support women makers in Africa. 3. The products that were made in Rwanda were made by small groups of individuals that were part of cooperatives, etc. One of the top executives had a connection to Rwanda through some work she had done as part of a female leadership group (I forget the details). But anyways, in the event you aren't aware, in the years after the genocide in Rwanda, in part because there were so few men left, women emerged as leaders in government and other fields throughout Rwanda. To this day, Rwanda has a higher proportion of women in government than I think virtually any country in the world, let alone Africa (61%). It has also emerged as one of the highest functioning and fastest growing countries on the continent. There are many who believe that this is not a coincidence. I happen to agree with them.

So this was not some ramshackle sweatshop operation. An as you observe astutely, the reason why those supplies were shipped to Rwanda via DHL is because you cannot procure them in Rwanda. (Or at least, you couldn't at the time...easily). There was a decent amount of sponsorship internally to make this a permanent component of Kate Spade's business but the logistics were a nightmare. There was simply no infrastructure to support manufacturing at scale and it was not something that a single company could change. At the most basic level, there wasn't at the time a single corrugated manufacturer in the entire country. How can you manufacture product if you can't buy boxes locally to ship the products you're making. The road infrastructure out to the ports on the Indian Ocean was non-existent, etc etc.

Nonetheless, I digress. Funny how people can make assumptions and are completely wrong.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

Funny. I worked at Kate Spade corporate at the time. I have distinct memories of this project and 1. it was not a sweatshop, far from it,

Where is your proof? The linked article is a self-congratulatory press release, not a piece of investigative journalism. The photographs might not even depict the facility where the work was performed.

It is clear from your tone of voice that this "project" served as a resume line for those who led it.

2. the company was looking for ways to support women makers in Africa.

"Support" and "women makers" is a corporate-speak dodge.

3. The products that were made in Rwanda were made by small groups of individuals that were part of cooperatives, etc.

"Cooperative" is more corporate-speak. It is doubtful that any "co-op" in Rwanda operates under a similar legal framework as what exists here. An investigative reporter would...investigate the matter.

But anyways, in the event you aren't aware, in the years after the genocide in Rwanda, in part because there were so few men left,

Per online sources, the male population of Rwanda was not significantly smaller than the female population in the years following the genocide:
https://countryeconomy.com/demograph...anda?year=2000

To this day, Rwanda has a higher proportion of women in government than I think virtually any country in the world, let alone Africa (61%).

A brief bit of internet research reveals that a female majority exists in the lower house of parliament, where a constitutionally-mandated electoral college of women selects female-dedicated seats that comprise 30% of all seats. The remainder of the seats have elected about 30% females. That's how the lower house got to 60%. The upper house is 70/30 male/female since it has no constitutional mandate for female seats.

It has also emerged as one of the highest functioning and fastest growing countries on the continent. There are many who believe that this is not a coincidence. I happen to agree with them.

These "beliefs" are not data-driven. In order to determine that majority-women governments are better governments, we'd need a lot of data. We don't have the data and so can't determine conclusions. We can have "beliefs", however. And if someone calls our flimsy "beliefs" into question, they're the bad guy.

There was a decent amount of sponsorship internally to make this a permanent component of Kate Spade's business but the logistics were a nightmare.

Well everyone got a resume line, and that's what it was really all about.

Nonetheless, I digress. Funny how people can make assumptions and are completely wrong.

Yep.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

Where is your proof? The linked article is a self-congratulatory press release, not a piece of investigative journalism. The photographs might not even depict the facility where the work was performed.

It is clear from your tone of voice that this "project" served as a resume line for those who led it.



"Support" and "women makers" is a corporate-speak dodge.



"Cooperative" is more corporate-speak. It is doubtful that any "co-op" in Rwanda operates under a similar legal framework as what exists here. An investigative reporter would...investigate the matter.



Per online sources, the male population of Rwanda was not significantly smaller than the female population in the years following the genocide:
https://countryeconomy.com/demograph...anda?year=2000



A brief bit of internet research reveals that a female majority exists in the lower house of parliament, where a constitutionally-mandated electoral college of women selects female-dedicated seats that comprise 30% of all seats. The remainder of the seats have elected about 30% females. That's how the lower house got to 60%. The upper house is 70/30 male/female since it has no constitutional mandate for female seats.



These "beliefs" are not data-driven. In order to determine that majority-women governments are better governments, we'd need a lot of data. We don't have the data and so can't determine conclusions. We can have "beliefs", however. And if someone calls our flimsy "beliefs" into question, they're the bad guy.



Well everyone got a resume line, and that's what it was really all about.



Yep.

Lol. Okay. You googled an airstrip and you decided the facility they were working in was one of the warehouses next to that exact airstrip. Like, isn't that obvious? Don't we all work in the buildings next to the airports we ship products to? Perfectly reasonable standard.

This is the partner. https://abahizirwanda.com/

It is not a sweatshop.

I've been on the ground at large manufacturing facilities for the 'attainable luxury market'...the space that is largely occupied by kate spade, coach, marc jacobs, dooney, etc. I've been in leather handbag factories in China, Vietnam, and the Philippines. They ARE NOT sweatshops. These factories are clean, well lit, air conditioned, and provide workers with livable wages in their local communities.

Obviously sweatshops exist with horrific working conditions. They mostly service the very large ready to wear manufacturers and fast fashion retailers. This is not that. There is not a single factory that a company like Kate Spade uses that would classify as a sweatshop.

But keep running your mouth.

[streetscaper]

"This is mainly just another chart showing the strength of the dollar.

Here’s how it changes once you adjust for purchasing power.

Left is why now is a great time for Americans to go on foreign holidays, and right compares what someone in each country can buy with their wages."



https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/sta...5Es1_&ref_url=




"In my opinion, this is an absolutely major theme in the coming years.

A massive wage arbitrage has opened between the US and its competitors. The overwhelming majority of people in the US have no idea just how much more money they make than the Japanese, French, British, etc."





"And the PPP-adjusted version expressed relative to the US"

[Shawn]

To pile on the above charts, we're experiencing a mini-brain drain in Japan now: anyone with the language skills and tolerance for risk is at least looking at jobs in the US. New grads in particular are skipping the traditional domestic shukatsu / job hunting process and going straight to American job fairs. Last November, the Boston Career Forum - the world's largest Japanese-English bilingual job fair - saw record-breaking attendance. Kids fly from Tokyo to Boston en mass for this. I ran a booth, it was incredible.

Japan is losing the exact kids it desperately needs, because why put up with Japanese working conditions for Japanese salaries when in the US you could work substantially fewer hours with less stress, no after-work work obligations, a much higher salary, and now a 1.6x multiplier on that salary because of the strong dollar? It's an easy decision for many.