Largest Counties By Votes for Biden and Trump, 2020

[Handro]

Originally Posted by sopas ej

I must say that generally, the Palos Verdes Peninsula tends to vote Republican, but I think this election was more about getting Trump out of office, for a lot of people.

Yes I think some of the trends we're seeing would look very different with a Biden vs. (insert normal Republican) election. People prognosticating that AZ, Georgia will now be blue states or that the Democratic white whale of Texas is finally about to flip are missing how many centrist Republicans held their nose and voted for Biden and will gladly be red again in 2024. Seeing the way these collar counties voted is testament to that. The fact that Trump lost many of the suburban districts but Republicans gained House seats in some of them is more proof that Trumpism is what was rejected, not the Republican party. Good news for Republicans as its proof voters might not tarnish them with the Trump label forever.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Did Italian-Canadians generally support Rob Ford? I get that he isn't directly analogous to Trumpism, but wondering if there was some Italian-Canadian affinity for his "strongman" populist tendencies?

Rob & Doug Ford did do well in Italian areas, so there's probably some truth to that; though conversely those same areas still voted Liberal in the Federal elections (the party of Justin Trudeau no less, who's just about the least "manly" leader possible).

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

Rob & Doug Ford did do well in Italian areas, so there's probably some truth to that; though conversely those same areas still voted Liberal in the Federal elections (the party of Justin Trudeau no less, who's just about the least "manly" leader possible).

i would say trudeau is clearly more manly than trump ever was.

[BG918]

This was an interesting map from the BBC that takes county-level data and shows the party swing by county



https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54783016

[BnaBreaker]

Some other results:

Davidson County, TN (Nashville): 64.2% Biden
Shelby County, TN (Memphis): 64.2% Biden
Duval County, FL (Jacksonville): 51.2% Biden
Jefferson County, AL (Birmingham): 55.7% Biden
Jefferson County, KY (Louisville): 59.1% Biden
Marion County, IN (Indianapolis): 63.3% Biden
Jackson County, MO (Kansas City): 59.9% Biden
Milwaukee County, WI (Milwaukee): 69.1% Biden
Hamilton County, OH (Cincinnati): 57% Biden
Franklin County, OH (Columbus): 64.8% Biden
Erie County, NY (Buffalo): 51.8% Biden
Oklahoma County, OK (Oklahoma City): 49.2% Trump
Bernalillo County, NM (Albuquerque): 60.9% Biden
El Paso County, TX (El Paso) 66.3% Biden
Douglas County, NE (Omaha) 54.2% Biden
Multnomah County, OR (Portland): 79.3% Biden
Orleans County, LA (New Orleans): 83.1% Biden (!!!!!)
Honolulu County, HI (Honolulu): 62.5% Biden

[TWAK]

Here is CA. My county was 6,874 votes for Biden with 62.28% and 3,955
for Trump at 35.83%. Smallest counties can get some love too!

A few more counties went blue for this election.
source

[pj3000]

^^^ Kinda cool... but probably doesn't really say that much about the makeup of the electorate because most counties are right on the blue-red line (i.e., the small arrows)... with only a few thousand or less votes being the difference.

However, the big arrows in certain places do have a story to tell.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Handro

Yes I think some of the trends we're seeing would look very different with a Biden vs. (insert normal Republican) election. People prognosticating that AZ, Georgia will now be blue states or that the Democratic white whale of Texas is finally about to flip are missing how many centrist Republicans held their nose and voted for Biden and will gladly be red again in 2024. Seeing the way these collar counties voted is testament to that. The fact that Trump lost many of the suburban districts but Republicans gained House seats in some of them is more proof that Trumpism is what was rejected, not the Republican party. Good news for Republicans as its proof voters might not tarnish them with the Trump label forever.

The flipside of this is that with a "normal" Republican, Ohio also would've gone Democrat while Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin wouldn't have been such close races.

It's too early to say though of course, but it's also possible that this is the new normal and we're just seeing the start of a realignment of the traditional Democrat & Republican coalitions.

Originally Posted by mrnyc

i would say trudeau is clearly more manly than trump ever was.

It should be clear that an overweight, spray-tanned, toupe-wearing reality TV star with the disposition of a temperamental toddler isn't a paragon of rugged manliness, but try explaining that to his fans!

[JManc]

Originally Posted by pj3000

I've been nerdily clicking through state/county election maps over the past week now, and this data provide is really a telling display of the situation around the larger urban locations (which have "collar" counties) in our country.

And what I find fascinating is that, in general, in the smaller and small metro areas, the pattern is remarkably the same... just on smaller scale, and showing the voting pattern differences within the metro's main county... meaning the city and near suburban precincts solidly blue, then getting more purple as you move away from the core, and then of course, solidly red (all within the same county).

Which is why looking just at county-level data, and assigning blue or red, isn't all that informative in smaller metros, especially when only 1,000 votes or less very often determine its red or blue classification.



Yeah, I noted Staten Island on the maps, as well.

What the hell is with Italian-Americans' voting preferences anyway? And how is it still that strong of characteristic of an ethnic immigrant group that has been here for a very long time. What is with that right wingy attitude?

I see it emerging among many friends who I grew up with, and who now seem to be turning into their grandfathers... it's like they love that Mussolini shit or something.

I'm half expecting them to start wearing velour track suits, big glasses, and velcro shoes and start hanging out playing barbut and eating tripe together.

Anyway, not trying to sidetrack it, but it would be very interesting to see the voting data in cities broken down by ethnic origin... like is there still consistency within immigrant groups who came to the US well over a century ago?

It's not about Italian Americans but socioeconomics. Blue collar Italians will vote like any other blue collar group. I'm Italian, most of my family voted for Biden. But they aren't Paulie Walnut types either.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by JManc

It's not about Italian Americans but socioeconomics. Blue collar Italians will vote like any other blue collar group. I'm Italian, most of my family voted for Biden. But they aren't Paulie Walnut types either.

correct -- the fact is its functionally just a suburb of retired cops down there.

but seriously, its not all red, the staten island north shore is the dem area. and locally speaking they do elect true hardcore dem political heros, like the young max rose. and just, but tough as nails diane savino, who i know.

i work down there often, pre-pandemic anyway, i see things. anymore i cannot say though, omerta. j/k

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

The flipside of this is that with a "normal" Republican, Ohio also would've gone Democrat while Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin wouldn't have been such close races.

It's too early to say though of course, but it's also possible that this is the new normal and we're just seeing the start of a realignment of the traditional Democrat & Republican coalitions.

So the Trump campaign spoke quite a bit about hidden Trump voters, and I have to admit that I thought it was BS, but I believe them now. But these voters are probably people that rarely/never vote, but they turn out because they are attracted to Trump personally. Obama also had a similar phenomenon, where a lot of black voters that rarely/never vote turned out specifically for him. This would explain why both Trump and Obama did much better than the polls indicated for their presidential races.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

So the Trump campaign spoke quite a bit about hidden Trump voters, and I have to admit that I thought it was BS, but I believe them now. But these voters are probably people that rarely/never vote, but they turn out because they are attracted to Trump personally. Obama also had a similar phenomenon, where a lot of black voters that rarely/never vote turned out specifically for him. This would explain why both Trump and Obama did much better than the polls indicated for their presidential races.

i think the increase is all because of more early voting options.

as for the silent crew, in ne ohio its the old labor dems who have been lost to the party. i dont think they have been slient, but certainly trump took full advantage of this by promoting economic grievences and racism. the atrocious egghead dems have completely lost these once loyal folks with their arrogance and distain for them (yeah i know trump distains them even more, but not in their minds). anyway perhaps biden can at least turn the tide toward winning them back, we will see.

[Hudson11]

I have a feeling Nassau will remain red. Lots of police and their families who live there that wouldn't normally vote Republican were probably put off by the sloganeering from the far left entering the mainstream. ACAB, Defund the Police and all of that. And of course because the growing disdain of Democratic executives at lower levels like De Blasio and Cuomo. The Long Island suburbs are intrinsically linked to the city and its leadership.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Hudson11

I have a feeling Nassau will remain red.

There's almost no chance of that happening. Nearly one in five ballots haven't yet been counted, and the remaining ballots are trending 85%+ Dem.

Suffolk, however, could remain barely red.

[skysoar]

The great mystery to me is that my former home state of Ohio has 8 Metropolitan areas over 400,000 population and still the state has now become reliably Republican. Even my relatives in Ohio cant explain why the state seems like a larger version of Indiana.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by skysoar

The great mystery to me is that my former home state of Ohio has 8 Metropolitan areas over 400,000 population and still the state has now become reliably Republican. Even my relatives in Ohio cant explain why the state seems like a larger version of Indiana.

not a great mystery, just like traditionally hardcore repub texas' swing to purple isn't either, more like long simmering and in ohio given extremely low immigration overall -- see my post above.

[Sam Hill]

I looked up my county.

Denver, CO:

Biden 82.72%
Trump 15.63%

https://www.westword.com/news/denver...pdate-11835882

[edale]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

not a great mystery, just like traditionally hardcore repub texas' swing to purple isn't either, more like long simmering and in ohio given extremely low immigration overall -- see my post above.

I actually think it is a bit of a mystery why Ohio has gone so red in the past ~8 years. Obama won the state in 2008 and 2012. It has similar demographics to neighboring Michigan and Pennsylvania. The state is getting blacker (14% in 2019 vs 12% in 2010), and while Hispanics and Asians represent a fairly negligible slice of the vote, their numbers and percent of the population have also been increasing.

I get that the white working class has basically all jumped ship from the Democratic Party, but does Ohio really have that many more people in that category than Michigan and Pennsylvania?

I think the utterly absurd gerrymandering at the state level has really beaten down the Democrats in Ohio. Thankfully voters passed gerrymandering reform, and the districts will be redrawn in 2021 (I think), which should result in a couple Democratic pickups in the House and throughout the state senate and house. But largely, the total lack of opportunity for democrats to even compete in races has really eliminated the grassroots network that proves critical for organizing, registering voters, getting voters to turn out-- all the stuff Stacey Abrams was able to do in Georgia.

The other explanation I would posit is that Ohio has a significant slice of Appalachia in it, including urban Appalachians who migrated in large numbers from West Virginia and Kentucky to Cincinnati and Columbus. Pennsylvania, of course, has this population as well. But Ohio doesn't have a mega city like Philly to balance it out. If Philly was roughly equal in size to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania would probably be a reliably red state now, too. Given the way Columbus is growing, maybe it will eventually become large enough to shift state-wide elections, but right now there just aren't enough votes in the urban counties to off-set the massive amounts of R votes coming from the rural (yet still fairly populated) and suburban counties.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by edale

I actually think it is a bit of a mystery why Ohio has gone so red in the past ~8 years. Obama won the state in 2008 and 2012. It has similar demographics to neighboring Michigan and Pennsylvania. The state is getting blacker (14% in 2019 vs 12% in 2010), and while Hispanics and Asians represent a fairly negligible slice of the vote, their numbers and percent of the population have also been increasing.

I get that the white working class has basically all jumped ship from the Democratic Party, but does Ohio really have that many more people in that category than Michigan and Pennsylvania?

I think the utterly absurd gerrymandering at the state level has really beaten down the Democrats in Ohio. Thankfully voters passed gerrymandering reform, and the districts will be redrawn in 2021 (I think), which should result in a couple Democratic pickups in the House and throughout the state senate and house. But largely, the total lack of opportunity for democrats to even compete in races has really eliminated the grassroots network that proves critical for organizing, registering voters, getting voters to turn out-- all the stuff Stacey Abrams was able to do in Georgia.

The other explanation I would posit is that Ohio has a significant slice of Appalachia in it, including urban Appalachians who migrated in large numbers from West Virginia and Kentucky to Cincinnati and Columbus. Pennsylvania, of course, has this population as well. But Ohio doesn't have a mega city like Philly to balance it out. If Philly was roughly equal in size to Pittsburgh, it would probably be a reliably red state now, too. Given the way Columbus is growing, maybe it will eventually become large enough to shift state-wide elections, but right now there just aren't enough votes in the urban counties to off-set the massive amounts of R votes coming from the rural (yet still fairly populated) and suburban counties.

Michigan has trended significantly redder in the Trump era for some reason. Obama won Michigan by blow outs in both of his elections. And one of those races was against a Michigan native whose father was a popular former governor.

But Michigan also doesn't have a Cincinnati. Democrats live and die by how well they do around Metro Detroit, and to a much lesser extent how much they moderate Grand Rapids. Slightly more enthusiasm in the city of Detroit alone has been the difference between winning and losing for Democrats in 2016 and 2020.

[Crawford]

OH is slightly more white working class than MI and PA, I think. And has fewer "metropolitans". Detroit is a somewhat wealthier and more cosmopolitan metro than Cleveland or Cincy.

And S/SE Ohio is Appalachia, which is about as Trump-friendly as it gets. Rural MI is hard-right, like rural America overall, but not quite as extreme as Appalachia.