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  #21  
Old Posted May 10, 2020, 4:12 PM
Razor Razor is offline
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Soo much can happen to change courses of future events, but still a fascinating discussion to think about..I know I'm simplifying it, but there are a lot of parallels with Australia and Canada..Two 'New World" heavily urbanized vast countries, each with 2 runaway alpha cities, and a solid second city sitting by themselves (Brisbane and Vancouver).I worked with an Australian for a brief period here, and he basically said the same thing, although on a basic level.Standard of living, freedom ,Commonwealth, etc..There are some obvious cultural differences. I was under the impression from years ago that Australia is ahead a little bit on new tech, but that may of changed..Heck, someone I knew from waaaay back, who moved to Australia. told me that they had ATM's and interact years before we had them.. I'll tip a Fosters to any Aussie reading this if they tip a Molson..Ahh screw it, let's both go for a Belgium import!..Anyways, good read..Kudos OP.
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  #22  
Old Posted May 10, 2020, 8:15 PM
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Making projections over the next 80 years based on short-term data seems a bit foolhardy considering the potential changes that AI, automation, climate change and a whole host of unquantified variables or unrealised events will have over the coming decades.

We don’t even know what the world will look like after COVID-19. If international migration collapses across the globe for several years that would disproportionately affect Canada relative to Australia and the UK due to a higher dependence on immigration over natural change.

In short, since the turn of the millennium, the UK has experienced higher population growth than either Australia or Canada.




As for ’city’ comparisons, the problem is due to different definitions. Melbourne is always problematic in these comparisons as there is just one defined area which covers a mammoth c.10,000 sq km. isaidso looks to have referenced the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (8,244 sq km) and for London, the OEC (covering 6,474 sq km).




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Sea walls are not going to save these cities lol.
The Thames Barrier is designed to last until 2070 and there have been various early conversations about a far larger replacement downstream.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin View Post
That 3 year trend is pretty important as it coincides with Brexit. One of the major sources of growth in London in recent years has been from within the EU - and that source has now been completely wiped out. The longer term economic ramifications still remain to be seen, but at this early point don't seem to bode terribly well for London either.
EU migration to the UK was certainly a contributing factor in the population growth of London, but it certainly wasn’t the only source and EU migration hasn’t stopped because of the Brexit referendum. There are projections for a minor economic knock to London (primarily due to the diversified economy), but the new reality is that that all pales in comparison to the ramifications from COVID-19.

Overall net international migration in the year to mid-2019 was still the 11th highest year on record, higher than in the post-financial crisis years of mid-2012 and mid-2013, and just 9% off the previous 10-year average before the referendum.
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  #23  
Old Posted May 10, 2020, 9:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
I meant in the long run, comparing 1960-1990 to 1990-2020. You've opened a thread to talk about 2020 and are trapped in a three year trend?

And data I mentioned on my post didn't come from citypopulation, but from UK Census. From citypopulation, I took London urban agglomeration definition. It has this 14.2 million people (2018) on the boundaries presented on the link.
If I had cherry picked the last 12-18 months of data I'd agree completely that one can't draw any conclusions. It's why I looked at demographic data over the last few years. This isn't a blip. Trend lines are important and the trend line in the UK and London is down.

I do agree with you about London's population though. London metropolitan area (14.258 million in 2018) is what I should have used. I went back to have a look and it closely corresponds to Greater Toronto - Hamilton in area. I'm assuming Melbourne annexed an adjacent municipality 2015-2016? The last few years look as follows:


London Metropolitan Area

2015: 13,839,040
2016: 13,998,563 (+1.15% or +159,523)
2017: 14,115,260 (+0.83% or +116,697)
2018: 14,257,962 (+1.01% or +142,702)
2019: 14,372,596 (+0.80% or +114,634)

Area: 8,382 km²


Greater Toronto - Hamilton

2015: 7,191,777
2016: 7,285,937 (+1.31% or +94,160)
2017: 7,395,512 (+1.50% or +109,575)
2018: 7,535,936 (+1.90% or +140,424)
2019: 7,680,502 (+1.92% or +144,566)

Area: 8,244 km²


Greater Melbourne

2015: 4,529,500
2016: 4,725,316 ( +4.32% or +195,816)
2017: 4,843,928 (+2.51% or +118,612)
2018: 4,963,349 (+1.91% or +92,421)
2019: 5,078,193 (+2.31% or +114,844)


Area: 9,992 km²


https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3218.0
http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...naggr3&lang=en
https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/2...rne/population
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Last edited by isaidso; May 11, 2020 at 12:18 AM.
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  #24  
Old Posted May 10, 2020, 9:36 PM
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*treads carefully around the years worth of Ontario/Québec shitfights on here and elsewhere*

.
Ontario and Quebec posters don't really fight over which province is better on here. That's a rare topic for arguments.
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  #25  
Old Posted May 10, 2020, 9:43 PM
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it's fairly safe to say the Toronto/Montréal dynamic is similar to Sydney/Melbourne but Toronto tends to dominate (mostly) the rest of Canada in a way that Sydney doesn't do here and nor will Melbourne should the population grow larger than Sydney like in all the pre-corona ABS forecasts.

London shits on all the other UK cities from a great height (like Paris does to the rest of the smaller cities in metropolitan France). Australia's top tier cities are more akin to Spain: Madrid and Barcelona on relatively the same level, Milan and Rome in Italy - no singularly dominant city (political, cultural, economic spheres).

From my very subjective take on things, it's a bit blurred in Canada and is somewhere half way between where Sydney/Melbourne and London/versus the rest of the UK are at.

The dynamics between New South Wales and Victoria are similar to Ontario and Québec (1st and 2nd largest state/province in each country, therefore the largest concentrations of the entire country's people are in these areas - with national capitals on the boundary or near the boundary of both jurisdictions in CA and AU) and it's not heroic to say that it's very unlikely another region/state will take over the current role that NSW/VIC and ON/QC fulfil.

Ever since Melbourne came along, it and Sydney have always been backwards and forwards - we've never really seen what's happened by Toronto pulling away from Montréal over the past 40-50 years.
.
There are some similarities between Sydney-Melbourne and Toronto-Montreal though one major difference is that Sydney and Melbourne exert influence over the same territory and population whereas Montreal and Toronto each have their own turf that they "rule" over. There is some overlap of course but not even close to what there is between Sydney and Melbourne.

A more analogous example to Toronto-Montreal would be Zurich-Geneva, where Zurich is much larger (twice?) but Geneva is still the uncontested big city for its part of the country. I watch the francophone Swiss national news on occasion and you almost never hear about Zurich. The only Swiss German city that gets frequent mentions is Bern and that's because it is the federal capital.
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  #26  
Old Posted May 10, 2020, 9:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
Ontario and Quebec posters don't really fight over which province is better on here. That's a rare topic for arguments.
Not since the days of habfanman or gabroni or whatever his names were.
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  #27  
Old Posted May 10, 2020, 11:22 PM
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I would think that Canada, Australia, and the UK will all diverge culturally and socially in 100 years. They'll still have that commonwealth history and heritage of course, but that will get further and further in the past.

Canada is going to always be close to the USA, nobody is going to manipulate a lightly populated nation that speaks the same language and shares the same culture as a land-border neighbor of a by then 400-million strong nuclear armed world power that will still be swinging its dick around. Australia is highly vulnerable to Chinese geopolitical influence and will probably become very Asian in a demographic sense, maybe even drifting towards being like a big Singapore with white people sometime in the distant future. The UK will always its own proud self of course, and maybe drift closer to the US as well after Brexit.
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  #28  
Old Posted May 10, 2020, 11:45 PM
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Originally Posted by suburbanite View Post
Not since the days of habfanman or gabroni or whatever his names were.
We do sometimes do get Montreal vs Toronto, but that is slightly different in terms of angles than Quebec vs Ontario.
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  #29  
Old Posted May 11, 2020, 12:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
Ontario and Quebec posters don't really fight over which province is better on here. That's a rare topic for arguments.
Agree. Provincial rivalries that may have existed in the past have largely evaporated. I suspect it's partly due to Ontario being significantly larger today and partly due to insecurities giving way to confidence over the last 1-2 generations (in both provinces).
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  #30  
Old Posted May 11, 2020, 12:33 AM
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Originally Posted by nito View Post
Making projections over the next 80 years based on short-term data seems a bit foolhardy considering the potential changes that AI, automation, climate change and a whole host of unquantified variables or unrealised events will have over the coming decades.
Like was stated in Post #1 this was not a forecast of prediction but a theoretical exercise due to the time period being considered.
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  #31  
Old Posted May 11, 2020, 12:34 AM
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Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
Agree. Provincial rivalries that may have existed in the past have largely evaporated. I suspect it's partly due to Ontario being significantly larger today and partly due to insecurities giving way to confidence over the last 1-2 generations (in both provinces).
It's not a love affair and there seems to be very little desire on the part of one to emulate the other, but more often than not each province has the other's "back". You also often see this even on a micro level with SSP posters.
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  #32  
Old Posted May 11, 2020, 1:56 AM
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Equalization/pipelines/French language laws can still bring out the Alberta vs. Quebec crowds.

On the original topic. One big consideration is that Canada is probably one of the larger inadvertent beneficiaries of global warming, while Australia will be one of the hardest hit. Seeing what recent summers have looked like down under, this years wildfires would have been one of the biggest news events of 2020 if the world hadn't fallen apart immediately after. Canada will likely continue to gain arable/livable land while Australia may lose it.
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  #33  
Old Posted May 11, 2020, 3:02 PM
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Does Canada's support for political parties split along Anglophone vs Francophone lines? I read something a couple years ago about how political affiliations in Canada are not as strongly tied to demographics and geography as they are in the U.S., and that may be keeping the politics more moderate there than what we've seen recently in the U.S. and U.K.
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  #34  
Old Posted May 11, 2020, 3:21 PM
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Does Canada's support for political parties split along Anglophone vs Francophone lines? I read something a couple years ago about how political affiliations in Canada are not as strongly tied to demographics and geography as they are in the U.S., and that may be keeping the politics more moderate there than what we've seen recently in the U.S. and U.K.
Demographics and geography do play a role in Canadian political affiliations but a big difference I find is that the affiliations are far less entrenchment. There is much more voting mobility among a much larger share of the population.

Perhaps it's due to having more than two main parties, and while you don't have that many people going from the NDP to the Conservatives, moving is possible between Liberal and Conservative in either direction, Liberal and NDP, Green and NDP, or even Bloc Québécois and NDP, Bloc Québécois and Conservative, etc.
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  #35  
Old Posted May 11, 2020, 3:55 PM
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That said, here are some of the general political fault lines in Canada:

- The federal Conservatives dominate on the Canadian Prairies.

- Immigrants and the children and grandchildren of immigrants are predominanly Liberal.

- Rural people in farming-dominant areas generally vote Conservative from Ontario going westwards.

- Rural areas that are more natural resource oriented or wild are more likely to vote Liberal or NDP. In many cases they have substantial indigenous populations, and they also lean Liberal and NDP, and rarely Conservative.

- Inner cities tend to be Liberal or NDP. Mostly Liberal though. Inner ring suburbs of cities tend to be Liberal or NDP too. Outer suburbs often flip between Liberals and Conservatives, in Ontario and the West anyway.

- French Canadians historically were very Liberal though this has changed in Quebec (where most of them live) over the past three decades and the Liberals have never been able to reclaim the hold they had on Québécois francophones. As a result Liberal support in Quebec is top-heavy with support from the province's anglo and other minority populations. The Liberals now struggle in Quebec to not be perceived as primarily "the party of minorities" as you can't go anywhere here without at least a decent chunk of francophone voters. Québécois francophones have mostly sided with the Bloc Québécois or the NDP since the 1990s, with a bit of love for the Liberals. They have never really been much into the Conservatives, with only a few exceptional blips either geographic (a few places around Quebec City mostly) or historical (the latter half of the 1980s under Brian Mulroney).
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  #36  
Old Posted May 11, 2020, 3:57 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
Does Canada's support for political parties split along Anglophone vs Francophone lines?
Definitely not. If that were the case, just by sheer numbers, Anglophone interests would win out Federally every time, and Quebec would have much more of a reason to separate. English Canadians would also put up little resistance to Quebec separating.

To add to some of the reasons Acajack listed, it's also worth noting that the Liberal party that has formed the Federal government for about 2/3 of Canada's post war history is quite an ideological chameleon that shifts its principles every decade or so, and counts among its set of dependable voters a strange assortment of groups that cut across language, cultural, geographic and class/income lines. These include: suburban immigrants, Anglophones in Quebec, Francophones outside of Quebec, what in the US you would call "coastal urban elites" and - very strangely - old money.
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  #37  
Old Posted May 11, 2020, 4:45 PM
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What does it matter? Everyone reading this thread will be dead.
Speak for yourself!

(truthfully, I don't think I'm likely to see my 120s............)

But my niece reads this..........she's still in HS.

She's only have to make it to 95............that seems entirely reasonable.
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  #38  
Old Posted May 11, 2020, 5:10 PM
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With the proper caveats that we can't yet properly assess the impact of Covid; that the precise impacts of climate change are yet known and will depend on how that issue is managed and mitigated, and that 80 years is plenty of time a for host of unknown unkowns....

My best guess.

Canada will maintain 1% population growth per year, on average, as far as the eye can see.

That's growth of about 104% over 80 years

That would give Canada in/around 77, 500, 000 in population in 2100

I find it unlikely the UK will grow to that point; if only because I would be surprised if we didn't see Irish reunification which will subtract 1.8 Million from their total.

Australia seems very open to growth as well; but I'm less clear on the impacts of climate change there.

For Canada there will be many challenges that may ensue, but its seems likely to generate a net increase in farmable land/growing season, and is unlikely to make any areas uninhabitable to desertification or heat.

Toronto is projected as a region to hit around 13M by 2046 according to provincial projections.

https://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/economy...ns/table4.html

GTA, plus Hamilton, Niagara, Simcoe (Barrie), Guelph and K-W. or roughly the commutershed.

If you assumed growth slowed to 1% from 2046 onwards you would end up with 22,000,00 people give or take.

Not sure I believe it will ever get that high, nor do I wish it too, but that's just a straight-line extrapolation.
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  #39  
Old Posted May 11, 2020, 6:13 PM
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Comparing apples to oranges here
Australia population density Per square km is 3.3 and Canada is 4
England is 432
Not sure our little islands need many more people
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  #40  
Old Posted May 11, 2020, 6:21 PM
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Comparing apples to oranges here
Australia population density Per square km is 3.3 and Canada is 4
England is 432
Not sure our little islands need many more people
I don't disagree.

Its not a competitive thing either from my perspective. I'd be entirely content to see the world's human population decline a bit (via low birth rates) and reduce our footprint a bit, everywhere.

Though, really, I do have to say, that's not an apples to apples comparison. A large chunk of Australia is dessert.

While a large chunk of Canada is its far north of tundra/artic and boreal peat swamp.

You really want to compare the usable space.

That said, the U.K. would still be a lot more dense than either Canada or Australia in that comparison.
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