The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[pierremoncton]

Originally Posted by JHikka

The East-West Corridor, if you're referring to the Trans-Maine Highway Project, has been turfed for nearly four years now.

I know, but it'll come back up. The fixed link took 40 years.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by pierremoncton

I know, but it'll come back up. The fixed link took 40 years.

Right, but there is a difference between connecting an island of what was 120K people at the time to building a highway through a state which is lukewarm to the idea at best. With the Confederation Bridge everyone benefitted, and most wanted it...with the Maine Highway there's no actual guarantee that anyone in Maine benefits, and the sole people who gain from it are Maritimers, Central Canadians, and Irving, amongst other private corporations.

[Taeolas]

Considering it gets bodies from outside the state INTO the state, there is some benefit, simply because you have people from outside your tax base now feeding into it, even if it is just a tank of gas and some snacks. If it's a toll road (which I believe it always was meant to be), most of the road costs would be covered so it would be less/minimal burden in that respect.

It also goes through an economically depressed (if not nearly dead) area of the state; so while you don't need many people to man a gas station and restaurant; there aren't that many people there now who would need those types of jobs.

Anyways, while I'm not as 100% positive the TCMH (TransCanadaMaineHighway) will ever get done; I'm pretty sure it will get done eventually, one way or another. It just needs to get the right backers behind it who can push the project benefits over the NIBYism and pseudo-Environmentalist types who are fighting it.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Considering it gets bodies from outside the state INTO the state, there is some benefit, simply because you have people from outside your tax base now feeding into it, even if it is just a tank of gas and some snacks. If it's a toll road (which I believe it always was meant to be), most of the road costs would be covered so it would be less/minimal burden in that respect.

A lot of Mainers didn't like the idea of tourists and non-Mainers driving through their backyard. That doesn't even mention the trucking industry which would have definitely benefitted and increased from such a link. The designers did everything they could to hide the highway from sight, or protect residential areas from the sound and sight, IIRC.

Originally Posted by Taeolas

It also goes through an economically depressed (if not nearly dead) area of the state; so while you don't need many people to man a gas station and restaurant; there aren't that many people there now who would need those types of jobs.

Indeed. Northern Maine is pretty similar to NB in the economic-sense.

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Anyways, while I'm not as 100% positive the TCMH (TransCanadaMaineHighway) will ever get done; I'm pretty sure it will get done eventually, one way or another. It just needs to get the right backers behind it who can push the project benefits over the NIBYism and pseudo-Environmentalist types who are fighting it.

The Private-led idea was interesting and important. The ideal situation would be to have Quebec, Maine, NB, and a private group to split the costs four ways. I believe the last proposal was purely private, which is fine, but some Mainers saw that as a private highway for private interests, and that it wasn't really for Mainers. It'll take a good PR and Communications effort to convince them of the benefits.

To relate this to stats i'm considering adding in the nearest regions of Quebec and Maine when I do stats for NB, purely for interests' sake.

[mmmatt]

[mmmatt]

A couple notes

- All stats are for Metro Areas (CMA)
- "Employment Average" means the average amount of people employed throughout that year
- "Population" should really say "Population Estimates"
- All data is from CANSIM tables available to public (although sometimes hard to navigate)


A side note about Building Permits...

TOTAL Between 2006 and 2015:

Halifax----- $7,177,056,000
St. John's-- $5,680,368,000
Moncton--- $2,855,753,000
Saint John- $1,913,530,000

[MonctonRad]

Good stuff mmmatt.

[MonctonianSentinel01]

Awesome work mmmatt. I love to see the numbers visually and turned into graphs. Thanks for this!

[mmmatt]

info source: http://www2.gnb.ca/content/dam/gnb/Departments/lg-gl/pdf/Funding-Financement.pdf

[Taeolas]

So a more general Stats/StatsCan question.

Last census, Fredericton just missed out in getting on the path to upgrading from CA to CMA status. So this year's census should get it firmly on that path. But what does that mean?

In particular, for the next 5 years, assuming nothing major happens one way or another, does Freddy just keep being reported as a CA, and then in 2021 it'll be added to the CMA lists (with 2016 stats to show trends?)?

Also, what would CMA status mean for a city? Mainly, from what I gather, CMA status means it gets listed on the big national stats (albeit listed at the bottom, so likely to be chopped anyway). Is it otherwise just an arbitrary notation in the Stats, or can it open doors for businesses and industries to consider the city more?

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

In particular, for the next 5 years, assuming nothing major happens one way or another, does Freddy just keep being reported as a CA, and then in 2021 it'll be added to the CMA lists (with 2016 stats to show trends?)?

It means as of the 2021 Census it will have full CMA status with everything that comes with that for 2021 numbers. I'm not sure if their posted numbers will be regressive for 2016 stats as well.

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Also, what would CMA status mean for a city? Mainly, from what I gather, CMA status means it gets listed on the big national stats (albeit listed at the bottom, so likely to be chopped anyway). Is it otherwise just an arbitrary notation in the Stats, or can it open doors for businesses and industries to consider the city more?

There's no real chopping to be done. All CMAs are listed on StatsCan for their releases, including the smaller ones like Sudbury, Saguenay, Peterborough, and eventually Fredericton. It means they're included on all of their releases from employment numbers to quarterly population growth.

[MonctonianSentinel01]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

So a more general Stats/StatsCan question
Can it open doors for businesses and industries to consider the city more?

Yes, more data is available.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by mmmatt

info source: http://www2.gnb.ca/content/dam/gnb/Departments/lg-gl/pdf/Funding-Financement.pdf

Grand Falls is also above $500M at $528M with a 0.25% increase. Woodstock, at $489M with a 1.61% increase, is just below this cutoff.

If Sussex and Sussex Corner amalgamated their total would be $513,040,500.

Largest Gains:
Pointe-Verte 12.53% ($42,086,850)
St-Hilaire 11.54% ($25,990,800)
Lac-Baker 10.98% ($53,344,050)
Bas-Caraquet 8.90% ($64,787,300)
Alma 8.30% ($27,837,582)
Tracadie 8.30% ($970,753,050)

Largest Losses:
Minto -1.86% ($103,815,408)
Saint-Leolin -1.88% ($18,942,350)
St. Steophen -2.59% ($340,335,300)
Dorchester -2.60% ($49,761,050)
Sussex Corner -2.62% ($99,353,300)
Saint-Andre -5.37% ($184,857,750)

[ErickMontreal]

Originally Posted by JHikka

It means as of the 2021 Census it will have full CMA status with everything that comes with that for 2021 numbers. I'm not sure if their posted numbers will be regressive for 2016 stats as well.


There's no real chopping to be done. All CMAs are listed on StatsCan for their releases, including the smaller ones like Sudbury, Saguenay, Peterborough, and eventually Fredericton. It means they're included on all of their releases from employment numbers to quarterly population growth.

As Fredericton is already outgrowing Saint John, by 2021, we can all assume that Fredericton will be the second largest CMA in NB...

[Franco401]

Originally Posted by ErickMontreal

As Fredericton is already outgrowing Saint John, by 2021, we can all assume that Fredericton will be the second largest CMA in NB...

No way. That's the long term trend, but there's a 30 000 person difference to overcome and SJ is on the rebound, even if the last couple years set it back.

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by JHikka

There's no real chopping to be done. All CMAs are listed on StatsCan for their releases, including the smaller ones like Sudbury, Saguenay, Peterborough, and eventually Fredericton. It means they're included on all of their releases from employment numbers to quarterly population growth.

Good to hear all in all. (But I agree, we won't be caught up to SJ by 2021. Not without yoinking in Oromocto, Lincoln, Hanwell, and the rest of the Freddy Burbs. )

When I said about chopping, I meant more along the lines of media reports and lists. StatsCan will have everything, but I'm sure that news will tend to limit to the Top X or whatnot unless they do a provincial breakdown. Doesn't matter in the big scheme of course, just for publicity mainly.

[MonctonRad]

What really matters is that a lot more statistics are kept for CMAs than for CAs and this information is readily available for businesses looking to set up shop in a community.

By default, a lot of businesses only compare CMAs to CMAs, with CAs being second class citizens.

Once Freddy joins the club in 2021, they'll be playing with the "big boys", but a lot of the stats kept by Statistics Canada look at changes in a community over time, therefore the real change in your status will be in 2026, when you have 2021 stats to compare with. Then you'll be able to look at your growth rate compared to other CMAs etc.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by ErickMontreal

As Fredericton is already outgrowing Saint John, by 2021, we can all assume that Fredericton will be the second largest CMA in NB...

Unlikely. Saint John's CMA includes all of its suburbs. Unless StatsCan consider Oromocto as a part of Freddy's CMA it'll be a few decades before Fredericton can reasonably pass SJ.

Originally Posted by Taeolas

When I said about chopping, I meant more along the lines of media reports and lists. StatsCan will have everything, but I'm sure that news will tend to limit to the Top X or whatnot unless they do a provincial breakdown. Doesn't matter in the big scheme of course, just for publicity mainly.

Media reports are often different and vary greatly depending on location, quality, etc. If you follow a good news source they should be giving you a good, well-rounded view of Canadian CMAs when the reports are released.

[mmmatt]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Grand Falls is also above $500M at $528M with a 0.25% increase. Woodstock, at $489M with a 1.61% increase, is just below this cutoff.

If Sussex and Sussex Corner amalgamated their total would be $513,040,500.

Largest Gains:
Pointe-Verte 12.53% ($42,086,850)
St-Hilaire 11.54% ($25,990,800)
Lac-Baker 10.98% ($53,344,050)
Bas-Caraquet 8.90% ($64,787,300)
Alma 8.30% ($27,837,582)
Tracadie 8.30% ($970,753,050)

Largest Losses:
Minto -1.86% ($103,815,408)
Saint-Leolin -1.88% ($18,942,350)
St. Steophen -2.59% ($340,335,300)
Dorchester -2.60% ($49,761,050)
Sussex Corner -2.62% ($99,353,300)
Saint-Andre -5.37% ($184,857,750)

Thanks for the follow up JHikka...sorry I missed Grand Falls...that's the problem with manually trans-coding from a PDF, human error becomes a factor

[mmmatt]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Unlikely. Saint John's CMA includes all of its suburbs. Unless StatsCan consider Oromocto as a part of Freddy's CMA it'll be a few decades before Fredericton can reasonably pass SJ.

Here is some data to think about it:

NB CMA/CA 2011 BREAKDOWN


As we can see Fredericton is a ways off currently.

If we extrapolate the 2011 growth rates out it would take until 2046 for Freddy CMA to surpass SJ CMA at which point: (YQM - 265,000) (YFC - 175,000) (YSJ - 172,000)

Thats taking a lot for granted of course as growth rates swing quite a bit over time and borders could change as well.

Another angle:

FREDERICTON CA BREAKDOWN


Fredericton CA does not currently contain Oromocto, that may change in the future which would add 8,932 folks as of 2011 with a growth rate of 6.3%. If we extrapolate that data out again we would find that expanded Freddy CMA would surpass SJ in 2036.

That being said given the current military employment in Oromocto its not likely it will be lumped into Freddy CMA as a certain percentage of folks must work in the main center for it to be included. This is why Shediac is not included under Moncton CMA as an example even though they are very much linked up economically.