Jones' articles are typically pretty pessimistic so i'll save myself the breath, for the most part.
The article fails to mention NB's increasing immigrant cohort or the way that in-migration has been matching out-migration over the past few quarters (according to StatCan's estimates numbers). Instead we get a bleak picture about births/deaths only....he's not wrong about the trending but there's a lack of information on the other hand, too.
Nowhere does it mention that the population has been increasing despite these out-migration numbers, which would sort of defeat the general tone of the article on the whole.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MonctonRad
The problem in the northern part of the province is compounded by in-province migration to Moncton and Fredericton. While these cities are growing, the population in the north is collapsing.
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Whenever people talk about a general demographic apocalypse they're mostly seeing NB numbers skewed by Northern NB. I cannot stress enough how much the population in Northern NB is going to decline in the next 20 years. Southern NB (Fredericton/SJ/Moncton & environs) will be mostly unaffected and will likely continue to grow, but areas like Campbellton, Bathurst, Edmundston aren't looking too hot, let alone all of the rural areas surrounding them which will empty out in due time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MonctonRad
In one northern district referred to on the radio broadcast of this article, the population of grade one students is precisely half what the population of grade 12 students is. This is how quickly the collapse is occurring.
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This is almost assuredly Campbellton-Dalhousie, isn't it?
Here's a comparative total enrolment for NB's seven school districts:
2006/2011/2016 enrolment figures:
ENG East 16,287 -> 15,538 -> 15,624
ENG North 10,179 -> 8,569 -> 7,428
ENG South 27,274 -> 24,903 -> 22,969
ENG West 25,920 -> 24,114 -> 22,901
FR Northeast 12,826 -> 10,651 -> 9,520
FR Northwest 6,576 -> 5,678 -> 5,335
FR South 12,951 -> 13,126 -> 14,065
Median Age of NB's CAs/CMAs:
Bathurst: 51.1
Campbellton: 50.4
Edmundston: 50.4
Miramichi 48.3
Saint John: 43.8
Moncton: 42.1
Fredericton: 40.9
Median Age for Census Subdivisions, 2006 -> 2011 -> 2016
Restigouche, 44.7 -> 48.7 -> 51.7
Madawaska, 43.9 -> 47.3 -> 50.1
Gloucester, 44.2 -> 47.9 -> 51.1
Suburban areas and the urban centres in the south have moved from ~40 to ~44 in this same time frame.