Quote:
Originally Posted by Obadno
I am not going to answer all your points because they are irrelevant
I linked demographic information, the USA is one of the few countries that isnt looking at extreme declines over the rest of the century.
I dont care that you dont think so or you find that difficult to understand, its irrelevant the numbers are the numbers.
You think you know more than the people that do this for a living? The rate of US pop growth is not going to be as fast as in the 21st century but it isn't even expected to level off until after 2100
And of course there is a lot of things that can change culturally, economically, geopolitically that could change how things look drastically. However I do think its hilarious that you think 300k dead 70+ year olds as at all impacting long term demographic trends.
You clearly have no idea how big the USA is or how deadly Covid is.
Even with all of the deaths the USA still grew in 2020, you would need to kill literally MILLIONS of people under the age of 40 to greatly impact future births in any significant way.
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I don't understand why you're respoding so angrily about a simple demographic discussion, specially when you seemed so happy about other random countries (UK, Brazil), facing similar demographic challenges.
All those tons of charts I'm familiar with, are always changing as they are not updated 24/7. If you take charts made in 2015 or 2010 they will be telling a different story.
Facts:
--- Births in the US are falling at a quite fast pace. 4.3 million (2007) to 3.7 million (2019) within a mere 12 year-timeframe;
--- Deaths, as it happens everywhere, are always growing as there are always more older people that will eventually die;
--- As conseguence, natural growth (births minus deaths) in the US plunged from 1.9 million 2007 to mere 900 k in 2018, a massive shift in a such small period.
Those things already happened. It's not a projection. It's very clear where things are going, and being conservative/optimistic, the most likely number for births in the US by 2030 will be 3.4 million at most. Deaths, considering some delay and postponing baby boomers deaths, will be around 3.5-3.6 million.
More:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demogr...tics_from_1935