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  #61  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2015, 5:34 PM
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Originally Posted by MolsonExport View Post
A one boob bus this time around.
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  #62  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2015, 5:42 PM
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Originally Posted by eternallyme View Post
Have the NDP ever won a federal or provincial seat in Calgary?
Interestingly... kinda?

In the Alberta election of 1921, Alexander Ross (not to be confused with the fur trader) won the first seat in Calgary as an MLA for the Dominion Labor Party (the whole city was a single riding with two seats from 1905-1913 and then again from 1921-1959 with three seats -- it was done under a single transferable vote system). The second seat was won by an independent, and the third seat was won by Fred White. White held his seat from 1921-1934, under the banners of Dominion Labor and then Canadian Labor.

The Dominion Labor Party was later disbanded to make room for/merged into the CCF, which further down the road became the NDP.
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  #63  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2015, 5:54 PM
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Originally Posted by eternallyme View Post
Have the NDP ever won a federal or provincial seat in Calgary?
I think so
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_...CF/NDP_members
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  #64  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2015, 7:24 PM
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The one thing I'm not sure about there is putting all of rural Alberta together. The wildrose support is certainly generally stronger outside the major cities, but it is also more concentrated south of the Battle River - which tends to operate on a slightly different wavelength than the areas north. Not to say the areas to the north couldn't go wildrose this time, but I'd say there are really kind of 4 regions, Edmonton, Calgary, Rural South and Rural North.
Agreed. And the math points to a PC win as long as they dominate Calgary and "Rural North".
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  #65  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2015, 7:27 PM
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Originally Posted by eternallyme View Post
Have the NDP ever won a federal or provincial seat in Calgary?
Fair point. But the centrists there are still going to vote for someone. Who knows? Many may vote Liberal again, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them try something new.
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  #66  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2015, 10:57 PM
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^^^
The NDP in the past have held 2 Calgary seats provincialy. Anecdotally, I know Liberals who will vote NDP, for the 1st time in their lives. So who knows.
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  #67  
Old Posted Apr 11, 2015, 1:37 AM
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While we're on the topic of signs, I took the Greyound from Calgary to my home in Edmonton today, with some stops in Airdrie, Red Deer and Leduc.

In Calgary, I saw a couple Liberal signs downtown, and I remember seeing one NDP sign on someone's lawn in Kensington. Saw quite a few Wildrose signs in Airdrie, and interestingly enough the sign was mostly blue with the green Wildrose logo being rather small at the top. Along the highway there were a handful of Wildrose banners the whole way and a couple PC signs that I noticed. Didn't see anything in Red Deer.

In Leduc I saw a pretty big Wildrose billboard.

Then I didn't see much of anything else until you hit Strathcona. Rachel Notley's signs are EVERYWHERE. Honestly, it seemed as though the majority of lawns visible from Gateway Blvd had Notley signs. Notley signs in apartment windows, Notley signs all over. So they've really come out early (though nobody doubts she'll win her riding...I wouldn't be surprised to see her get 80%).

Home in Edmonton-Centre, I've seen one sign and that was also NDP. Too early in the campaign to really tell who has the edge, but I plan to vote for Blakeman.

I'm kind of old fashioned and think numbers of signs you see around is a pretty good indicator of how things will be. I remember in 2012 when the WRP was polling in majority territory and 308 projected my riding to go WRP in Grande Prairie, but I never bought it. The PCs were way ahead in visibility (and anecdotally talking to people who were freaked out by Wildrose) and I rightly predicted it would stay blue.
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  #68  
Old Posted Apr 12, 2015, 2:40 AM
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New Alberta election poll projects slim Wildrose majority

A new poll projects the Alberta Tories will be challenged by a majority-bound Wildrose Party and surging NDP as PC leader Jim Prentice campaigns with a “truly awful” approval rating chained to his ankle.

A Forum Research automated telephone poll of 1,661 eligible voters resulted in a virtual three-way tie: 30 per cent said they’d vote Wildrose, 28 per cent said they’d support the NDP and 27 per cent said they’d vote Progressive Conservative. Twelve per cent said they would support the Liberals.

With the Wildrose polling first in every region expect Edmonton, Bozinoff said the projections point to a slim majority government for the party, with 44 of 87 Legislature seats.

That would leave 23 for the Tories, 15 for the NDP and five for the Liberals, Forum Research suggests.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/Alber...918/story.html
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  #69  
Old Posted Apr 12, 2015, 2:45 AM
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Woot woot for the Wildrose!

But will many potential WR voters change their mind when the time comes to put their Xes on their ballots? That's the big unknown.
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  #70  
Old Posted Apr 12, 2015, 3:02 AM
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Interesting fact: while it's often thought that the CCF was founded in Regina (i.e. the Regina Manifesto), it was actually founded in Calgary in 1932.
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  #71  
Old Posted Apr 12, 2015, 4:15 AM
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With such weird polling results, I get a feeling this one is going to be made completely unpredictable because of FPTP quirks.
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  #72  
Old Posted Apr 12, 2015, 6:02 AM
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Yeah, those polls are completely useless this election just like they were last election when they said the WR was going to win. Instead the PC's decimated everyone.

If these people trying to predict a WR win were willing to bet even money on it I would put $10,000 on the PC's being the ruling party yet again when the dust settles. They will most likely be a strong majority again, Albertan's vote PC as an automatic reflex when it comes time to vote. Most hardly even notice the issues or platforms, they simply go in and auto-pilot their checkmark for the PC candidate.

PC's will dominate, WR will get a fair percentage of the total vote in conservative ridings but they will lose almost all of those ridings to the PC's. NDP will do well in Edmonton and will probably have a chance to become the official opposition. WR will have to fight hard to keep their spot as the OO. Liberals will continue to be irrelevant in Alberta.
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  #73  
Old Posted Apr 12, 2015, 6:50 AM
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So... Kind of a weird question. Does anybody know why Edmonton is left of the rest of the province? I know it's been that way for over 100 years...I've just been wondering. Poll accuracy aside, to have the ndp lead in one city with the wildrose leading everywhere else in the province is a pretty big divide and speaks to something different. I know the bigger university and government is in Edmonton, but is that it? Or is there any other reason Edmonton seems to hang one (or four) step(s) left of its province? I know there's no easy answer, but as somebody who didn't grow up in Edmonton, I'm curious as to if I am missing something.
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  #74  
Old Posted Apr 12, 2015, 7:52 AM
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I can foresee this scenario playing out during the last few days of the AB campaign:

1. WR in lead in polls;

2. PCs in 2nd;

3. NDP in 3rd;

And same poli dynamic coming into play at the very end of the campaign as in 2012 - soft NDP parked votes return to vote PC to stave off potential WR victory as polls indicate to public. Another 2012 re-run.

Completely different election dynamics in Alberta. The fed Harper Cons had MASSIVE vote majorities in virtually all AB ridings in 2011. NDP and even Liberal/AB Party are poli losers provincially with that underlying poli dynamic. At the end of the day. No doubt.

BTW, I would categorize Prentice as more of a "red tory" or "blue liberal" along the lines of Frank McKenna for example. Not a stereotypical social-con, right-wing federal CPC type. In fact, Prentice comes across, to me at least, as someone who is very similar to Peter Lougheed.

And Prentice bringing over WR MLAs was just a poli strategic move - which obviously has not worked out - and perhaps even back-fired - to date.

As for the apparent NDP polling share increase in Alberta - good grief! Alberta oil sands are a "high-cost"/'high break-even point" proposition in today's oil reality/environment. Any upward change to those royalty rates or royalty rate structure (through social-engineering) would further "kill the goose that laid the golden egg" for AB.

Furthermore, an oil refinery has not been constructed in North America since the early 1980's. For good reason. Demand is not there as well as non-existent economics/slim or non-existent margins. Even heavy oil upgraders to synthetic crude are also uneconomic in Alberta these days.

Yet... here today comes along the AB NDP with their loony economic policy:

Quote:
NDP’s Notley Promises Royalty Changes To Boost Oil Refining in Province
http://www.660news.com/2015/04/10/nd...g-in-province/

The AB NDP would obviously further place a knife within AB's current teetering oil sands with their inferred royalty structure increase. How anyone would be able to vote NDP, under that scenario, is beyond me.

Reminds me of the BC NDP during the May, 2013 BC provincial election campaign coming out against the Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning to the coast - it became a "symbol" of the BC NDP coming out against the BC economy as a whole - against natural gas development, mining, LNG, etc. The BC NDP were cast as "Dr. No". No against resource development. Remember... "It's about the economy, stupid".

Even the BC unionized Building Trades were stupefied at the time. Their membership as well as the unionized forestry and mining sectors voted strongly BC Lib in 2013. Suspect same reaction will occur toward AB NDP as we move forward during the AB campaign.

PS. Forgot to mention that the BC NDP "promised" to bring in a "$1 billion+" budget deficit every year, moving forward - Compared to the BC Lib's promise to keep a balanced budget, which promise that they have held. Further ingrained the "tax & spend" stigma that the BC NDP retains. Same old NDP - just different province.

Last edited by Stingray2004; Apr 12, 2015 at 8:15 AM.
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  #75  
Old Posted Apr 12, 2015, 8:26 AM
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There won't be a last second shift from the NDP to the PCs this time around. Alison Redford was a VERY Red Tory running a campaign that was downright Liberal in 2012 (the PCs had the teachers, the unions, behind them and won't this time), and many people feared the Wildrose was a Tea Party style conservative party. The Liberals went from close to 30% in the last election to 10% in 2012. They flocked en masse to the PCs, but that bloc of voters is overwhelmingly dissatisfied with that decision now and will be looking elsewhere.

In 2012 you heard people say "I'll vote PC to keep the Wildrose out".

Now you're hearing those same people say "I'd rather the Wildrose than the darn PCs".

Last edited by BretttheRiderFan; Apr 12, 2015 at 8:38 AM.
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  #76  
Old Posted Apr 12, 2015, 8:28 AM
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Originally Posted by Yegger View Post
So... Kind of a weird question. Does anybody know why Edmonton is left of the rest of the province? I know it's been that way for over 100 years...I've just been wondering. Poll accuracy aside, to have the ndp lead in one city with the wildrose leading everywhere else in the province is a pretty big divide and speaks to something different. I know the bigger university and government is in Edmonton, but is that it? Or is there any other reason Edmonton seems to hang one (or four) step(s) left of its province? I know there's no easy answer, but as somebody who didn't grow up in Edmonton, I'm curious as to if I am missing something.
It is true, Edmonton is left of Calgary and the rest of the province.

You will also find that northern Alberta as a whole is less conservative than southern Alberta (if you look at a 2012 election map you can see it very clearly, with the north going PC and the south Wildrose. Northern rural areas were historically more receptive to Liberals and New Democrats as well).

This is an article I find really interesting and quite a good history behind it. It's definitely a distinction that remains lost on most from outside the province.

http://reviewcanada.ca/magazine/2014...-two-albertas/

Last edited by BretttheRiderFan; Apr 12, 2015 at 9:02 AM.
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  #77  
Old Posted Apr 12, 2015, 1:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Tropics View Post
Yeah, those polls are completely useless this election just like they were last election when they said the WR was going to win. Instead the PC's decimated everyone.

If these people trying to predict a WR win were willing to bet even money on it I would put $10,000 on the PC's being the ruling party yet again when the dust settles. They will most likely be a strong majority again, Albertan's vote PC as an automatic reflex when it comes time to vote.
I think you are right Polling has become hugely suspect in the last several provincial elections and can't be counted on to be a reliable indicator of voter intentions. The pollsters have a much harder time getting statistically valid samples today than say 20 years ago when most people had land lines without call display and were listed in a phone book. Now something like 90% of the people the pollsters try to contact won't answer the call or won't participate, and they end up polling the more aggrieved or partisan voters who will answer the survey skewing the results. We are back to the days when the only poll that counts is the one on Election Day.
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  #78  
Old Posted Apr 12, 2015, 2:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Yegger View Post
So... Kind of a weird question. Does anybody know why Edmonton is left of the rest of the province? I know it's been that way for over 100 years...I've just been wondering. Poll accuracy aside, to have the ndp lead in one city with the wildrose leading everywhere else in the province is a pretty big divide and speaks to something different. I know the bigger university and government is in Edmonton, but is that it? Or is there any other reason Edmonton seems to hang one (or four) step(s) left of its province? I know there's no easy answer, but as somebody who didn't grow up in Edmonton, I'm curious as to if I am missing something.
Edmonton is the capital, home to the largest university and the largest hospitals. Therefore its has abundant public sector workers who care less about tax rates, deficits and attracting business to the province because provincial spending inordinately benefits them.
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  #79  
Old Posted Apr 12, 2015, 3:29 PM
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Edmonton is the capital, home to the largest university and the largest hospitals. Therefore its has abundant public sector workers who care less about tax rates, deficits and attracting business to the province because provincial spending inordinately benefits them.
This is a gross oversimplification. It's easy for Calgarians to blame it on the self-interest of lazy government workers, but there really aren't all that many more in Edmonton than there are in Calgary.


http://www.calgaryeconomicdevelopmen...abourForce.pdf
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  #80  
Old Posted Apr 12, 2015, 3:41 PM
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Originally Posted by BretttheRiderFan View Post
It is true, Edmonton is left of Calgary and the rest of the province.

You will also find that northern Alberta as a whole is less conservative than southern Alberta (if you look at a 2012 election map you can see it very clearly, with the north going PC and the south Wildrose. Northern rural areas were historically more receptive to Liberals and New Democrats as well).

This is an article I find really interesting and quite a good history behind it. It's definitely a distinction that remains lost on most from outside the province.

http://reviewcanada.ca/magazine/2014...-two-albertas/
Oh yeah, I do remember reading that a while back, thanks!


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Originally Posted by Doug View Post
Edmonton is the capital, home to the largest university and the largest hospitals. Therefore its has abundant public sector workers who care less about tax rates, deficits and attracting business to the province because provincial spending inordinately benefits them.
This sounds like my reform era parents in Calgary. I was specifically asking because that is what I heard all the time growing up and I don't buy it. I agree the university and public sector play a role, but using that overall seems like long hanging fruit, often steeped in some rhetoric trying to make Edmonton seem like communists.

It is true that I tend to be centre-left thinking and I ended up moving north. Maybe it's just a difference that reinforces itself through self-selection over time. It's just interesting that two similarly sized cities in the same jurisdiction have such different political cultures.
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