BC Political Discussion - BC Election 2017 May 9th

[WarrenC12]

Mike De Jong doesn't use email:

http://www.cknw.com/2016/03/07/foi-d...snt-use-email/

This is the Minister of Finance that oversees $46B/year in government revenues and spending. In 2016.

The lengths people will go to avoid FOI...

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Absolutely nuthin' to do with "fair". Just political reality. Frankly, the BC NDP is just not electable... unless a major split occurs on the centre-right vote as history has confirmed. Just ain't gonna happen in 2017. Not in the cards...

You underestimate Christy Clarke's Harper Effect. She is not liked. If it looks to the electorate that the NDP can run a credible campaign she could be defeated. Or if the Greens got organized and offered the sensible centre a candidate they could get enthusiastic about.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by whatnext

You underestimate Christy Clarke's Harper Effect. She is not liked. If it looks to the electorate that the NDP can run a credible campaign she could be defeated. Or if the Greens got organized and offered the sensible centre a candidate they could get enthusiastic about.

That Harper effect has been at play since she was elected leader, it didn't work in 2013, it's unlikely to work now.

Likewise, provincial politicians are often less well known than federal politicians. Heck I HATED Harper, but i'm mostly indifferent towards Clark.

[Plafuldog]

Gordon Campbell was equally hated. Always polled well below his party, but won 3 elections, despite the BC rail scandal and a drunk driving conviction, amongst other electoral irritants while facing much for formidable NDP leaders. Until the NDP elects a more Trudeau-esque leader to inspire voters of both the left and center, they can't win an election

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by Plafuldog

Gordon Campbell was equally hated. Always polled well below his party, but won 3 elections, despite the BC rail scandal and a drunk driving conviction, amongst other electoral irritants while facing much for formidable NDP leaders. Until the NDP elects a more Trudeau-esque leader to inspire voters of both the left and center, they can't win an election

Pretty much this.

I know a hell of a lot of people who are progressive but vote bc liberal merely because they can't stand the NDP.

For me, I'll be voting green.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Pretty much this.

I know a hell of a lot of people who are progressive but vote bc liberal merely because they can't stand the NDP.

For me, I'll be voting green.

Time out for a second - since when was the Green Party the moderate side?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Plafuldog

Gordon Campbell was equally hated. Always polled well below his party, but won 3 elections, despite the BC rail scandal and a drunk driving conviction, amongst other electoral irritants while facing much for formidable NDP leaders. Until the NDP elects a more Trudeau-esque leader to inspire voters of both the left and center, they can't win an election

Not in the same manner. People may have disliked Campbell but at least credited him as being intelligent.

[urbancanadian]

Stingray, could you please try to keep from calling certain groups the "granola crowd" and such. If you do that, then the other side will start name calling and then things will go off the rails and we might as well be debating in the YouTube comments section. Thanks!!

[bluefox]

I agree that the Liberals are in a better position heading into next year, and I'd argue that, in fact, it's Christy Clark's election to lose, not the NDP's. Here's why:

• The NDP are still almost $5 million in debt heading into the final year of the current term. Not a good place to be.
• The unions are quiet and the usual money flow from them is a lot smaller than in the past. Again, one year from an election, this isn't a good sign.
• They lost a lot of their backroom to Alberta after the AB NDP won last year and most of them likely will not take a leave just to come back and help. A lot of the people brought in to replace them have not stuck around.
• They keep shooting themselves in the foot just when it appears the Clark government has done yet one more thing to weaken its case for re-election. The latest being selling their HQ to a foreign buyer, which makes them look like hypocrites (though it can be argued they did it to themselves by getting so far into debt).
• They won the two recent by-elections on a shoestring budget (by necessity). On a bigger scale they will not have the means to fight.
• The Green numbers, which, as others have mentioned, are more likely to harm the NDP than the Liberals. The federal election sparring between the federal NDP and the Greens was a prelude to what we'll see provincially in 2017.
• Their key mistake is not shifting closer to the centre to reflect not only the changing demographics in BC but also the void left by Christy Clark shifting rightward to appease the "free enterprise" coalition. Again, as others have already stated, a moderate alternative to the NDP similar to the "orange liberal" prairie NDP governments of the 1990s and 2000s would stand a better chance at this point of defeating Christy Clark.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

I see a rise in green support, but something people forget is how much of the green vote actually comes from the right, in the past 2 by-elections, the greens made gains at the cost of the LINOs, and the NDP but to a lesser extent. If the greens rise to 10% support province wide, not only will they win at least 3 seats, but they will also eat into LINO support, especially in metro Vancouver

Firstly, concerning those 2 by-elections, Vancouver-Mount Pleasant is the BC NDP's safest seat. Period. Only one of 2 that the BC NDP held in the 77-2 debacle back in 2001.

BTW, incumbent govt's are notorious for losing by-elections in BC. To wit, the only seats that incumbent gov'ts have won in BC are... Cariboo (Socred - 1966), Kamloops (Socred - 1981) and Christy Clark's 2 by-election wins in 2011 and 2013 respectively. That's 4/34 by-elections since November, 1966.

The other by-election... Coquitlam-Burke Mountain saw a record low turnout - no one can go back far enough to confirm when only a 20% voter-turnout occurred. Even then the BC NDP only won by 653 votes. More importantly, ~13,000 voters (that actually voted in 2013) stayed home as the by-election received sparse media attention.

And I have included C-BM as a safe Liberal seat in 2017. Why? It includes the higher income demographic of Westwood Plateau, which comprises a major chunk of the riding. And then Burke Mountain, which has been booming with new SFDs and townhomes over the past few years (expected to have ~40,000 in new population down the road). And the new condo towers in the brownfield areas situate near the Evergreen line in the town centre.

As a matter of fact, all of those polling stations voted heavily Liberal during the 2013 general election and ya can expect the same in 2017.

Now to the Greens - and where their vote came from in 2013. After the election and I did an analysis of all ridings and 4 ridings stuck out as follows (with change in popular vote share from 2009):

1. Oak Bay-Gordon Head: (former marginal Liberal seat)

BC Green: 40.4% (+31.5%)
BC Liberal: 29.3% (-17.4%)
BC NDP: 28.4% (-16%)

Obviously the BC Greens took about the same proportion of votes from both of the other parties.

2. Saanich North and the Islands: (former marginal Liberal seat)

BC NDP: 33.3% (-10.9%)
BC Liberal: 32.8% (-11.9%)
BC Green: 32.1% (+20.8%)

Closest three way race in 2013 and the Greens almost won their 2nd seat here. What's more interesting is that the BC Libs won most of the polling stations on the mainland Saanich peninsula while the Greens won basically the rest (NDP won 3). OTOH, the NDP won most of the polling stations on the Gulf Islands with the Greens winning the rest (Libs mostly in 3rd place here). And the Gulf Islands vote overwhelmingly for their fed Green MP - Liz May where one would think the hard-core enviro or "green" vote is situate in the riding.

So in the 2 foregoing seats, the BC Greens took roughly equally from both the BC Libs and BC NDP.

3. Cowichan Valley: (long-time NDP stronghold on other side of Malahat Pass)

BC NDP: 40.1% (-8.4%)
BC Liberal: 34.9% (-0.8%)
BC Green: 19.2% (+7.4%)
BC Con: 4.6% (+1%)

Most of the obvious movement here was former 2009 BC NDP voters ------> BC Green.

4. West Vancouver- Sea to Sky:

BC Liberal: 52.3% (-2.6%)
BC NDP: 32.5% (+9.6%)
BC Green: 11% (-11.2%)
BC Con: 3% (+3%)

Again.... most of the movement here was between the BC NDP and BC Greens from 2009... but in the reverse direction.

Back in 2013... the BC Greens were led by Jane Sterk... never in the media outside the election and came across as a boring, wet-noodle.

OTOH, with Andrew Weaver as leader, the BC Greens have received continuous media attention - esp. both print and TV on southern Van Isle. More importantly, Weaver comes across as intelligent, likable, down-to-earth, with some charisma thrown in. And he is expanding the BC Green narrative above and beyond the "enviro" label.

Have said it once and will say it again, I suspect that Weaver will "win" the 2017 leadership debate... with considerable media focus... and will see the BC Greens expand their popular vote share from 2013. And alot will be a "pox on both their houses" [Libs/NDP] vote. How much the BC Greens will rise in 2017 is still in question.

BTW, BC NDP leader Horgan has previously stated to Vaughn Palmer of the Van Sun that the BC Greens will "mow their [green] lawn" in 2017. IOW, conceding that the BC Greens will take former 2013 BC NDP voters from them.

But to again answer your supposition... contrarily I expect the BC Greens to take 3 former BC NDP votes for every 2 former BC Lib votes in 2017 in terms of the overall BC popular vote share.

[Stingray2004]

The following has def gotta be a first in BC politics.

For decades, the BC Building Trades unions have been closely aligned with and publicly supported the BC NDP up to and including the 2013 BC election. Well... today the Building Trades unions held their annual convention in Victoria and BC Lib cabinet minister Shirley Bond was a guest speaker thereto. Unheard of.

Bond received a standing ovation and was warmly thanked by the executive director and invited to speak at the national convention in May. Completely unheard of. The guest speaker following Bond, Carole James of the BC NDP, received a public rebuke on the podium.

The foregoing was completely inconceivable until recently.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...ticle29603376/

[Hourglass]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

The following has def gotta be a first in BC politics.

For decades, the BC Building Trades unions have been closely aligned with and publicly supported the BC NDP up to and including the 2013 BC election. Well... today the Building Trades unions held their annual convention in Victoria and BC Lib cabinet minister Shirley Bond was a guest speaker thereto. Unheard of.

Bond received a standing ovation and was warmly thanked by the executive director and invited to speak at the national convention in May. Completely unheard of. The guest speaker following Bond, Carole James of the BC NDP, received a public rebuke on the podium.

The foregoing was completely inconceivable until recently.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...ticle29603376/

Thought I saw a flying pig go by just now

Opposing the Pacific Northwest LNG project ($11.4 billion) and Site C ($7.4 billion) isn't exactly endearing the NDP to the building trades unions.

[Metro-One]

I guess the NDP really want the Liberals to win?

Did they not learn that the only reason they lost the last election was because at the last moment they came out against the Kinder Morgan Pipeline expansion (when prior they were on the fence), making them look as if they were against all industrial projects in BC, turning large numbers of the working class against them?

Essentially in order to steal a few votes from the Greens they will be giving away many more to the Liberals.

I have no problem with demanding strict environmental reviews and policies and not giving every industrial project a rubber stamp of approval, but the NDP have gone too far to the left fringe and have become against industry in general.

Not going to work.

BC is a resource rich province and part of the world economy, extraction should continue to be a valued part of our economy (although we should also focus on building more value added facilities / industries around those resources).

I knew they were going to turn against LNG, I just knew it. We were with them when they were against the northern gateway pipeline because the environmental risks were just too high to justify the economic gains, but LNG is a very different situation and now things are just getting silly. This is why my family, a once NDP strong family, now mostly votes Liberal (or not at all) because the NDP are no longer about the working man, they are about the Gulf Island / Vancouver environmental fringe.

[BCPhil]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

I guess the NDP really want the Liberals to win?

Did they not learn that the only reason they lost the last election was because at the last moment they came out against the Kinder Morgan Pipeline expansion (when prior they were on the fence), making them look as if they were against all industrial projects in BC, turning large numbers of the working class against them?

Essentially in order to steal a few votes from the Greens they will be giving away many more to the Liberals.

I have no problem with demanding strict environmental reviews and policies and not giving every industrial project a rubber stamp of approval, but the NDP have gone too far to the left fringe and have become against industry in general.

Not going to work.

BC is a resource rich province and part of the world economy, extraction should continue to be a valued part of our economy (although we should also focus on building more value added facilities / industries around those resources).

I knew they were going to turn against LNG, I just knew it. We were with them when they were against the northern gateway pipeline because the environmental risks were just too high to justify the economic gains, but LNG is a very different situation and now things are just getting silly. This is why my family, a once NDP strong family, now mostly votes Liberal (or not at all) because the NDP are no longer about the working man, they are about the Gulf Island / Vancouver environmental fringe.

They did that pivot to the left (environmentally) and the only gain they got out of it was David Eby winning his seat.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

We were with them when they were against the northern gateway pipeline because the environmental risks were just too high to justify the economic gains

Not to put the NDP down, but the Liberals (and practically everybody in BC) were against Northern Gateway too. Common sense really - Alberta was expecting the province to shoulder half the risk and none of the profit.

[WarrenC12]

The Federal NDP has also shown they would rather stick to their hardcore socialist roots than have a chance at government.

Only a major scandal will force a change of government now, or potentially a change of leadership if that scandal leads right to Clark.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

The Federal NDP has also shown they would rather stick to their hardcore socialist roots than have a chance at government.

Only a major scandal will force a change of government now, or potentially a change of leadership if that scandal leads right to Clark.

Don't be so sure. The support for Bernie Sanders amongst educated, white young people shows there is an anger building that is waiting to be harnessed. In BC the issue to be exploited is affordability. If those voters think hardcore socialism is a way to achieve it, they might take a chance. If the federal election taught anything, it's that the old Thatcherite bogeymen like deficits have lost their scare. Voters were quite willing to go for deficit spending. They'd seen governments bail out big business in the Great Recession, so why not want some help for themselves? Parties with messaging stuck in 1986 will find themselves behind the curve.

[ClaytonA]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

I guess the NDP really want the Liberals to win?

Did they not learn that the only reason they lost the last election was because at the last moment they came out against the Kinder Morgan Pipeline expansion (when prior they were on the fence), making them look as if they were against all industrial projects in BC, turning large numbers of the working class against them?

Essentially in order to steal a few votes from the Greens they will be giving away many more to the Liberals.

I have no problem with demanding strict environmental reviews and policies and not giving every industrial project a rubber stamp of approval, but the NDP have gone too far to the left fringe and have become against industry in general.

Not going to work.

BC is a resource rich province and part of the world economy, extraction should continue to be a valued part of our economy (although we should also focus on building more value added facilities / industries around those resources).

I knew they were going to turn against LNG, I just knew it. We were with them when they were against the northern gateway pipeline because the environmental risks were just too high to justify the economic gains, but LNG is a very different situation and now things are just getting silly. This is why my family, a once NDP strong family, now mostly votes Liberal (or not at all) because the NDP are no longer about the working man, they are about the Gulf Island / Vancouver environmental fringe.

^ this exactly. Liberals sure aren't perfect, but those 1990's NDP scars... There's a middle ground as sometimes the Liberals seem to trust big business too much (e.g. Polley Mine appears to be a regulatory failure). You should be able to be for the environment and industry; what's a winner of a race to the bottom? How could one trust the NDP when they were on the fence re Kinder Morgan? I was glad their position was made clear. Similarly I thought the Liberal GVRD transportation referendum/plebiscite was absolute B.S., but at least you knew where you stood (longer commutes). Political parties that don't stand for something during elections won't stand up for anything when governing.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Don't be so sure. The support for Bernie Sanders amongst educated, white young people shows there is an anger building that is waiting to be harnessed. In BC the issue to be exploited is affordability. If those voters think hardcore socialism is a way to achieve it, they might take a chance. If the federal election taught anything, it's that the old Thatcherite bogeymen like deficits have lost their scare. Voters were quite willing to go for deficit spending. They'd seen governments bail out big business in the Great Recession, so why not want some help for themselves? Parties with messaging stuck in 1986 will find themselves behind the curve.

Bernie (and Trump) are big draws because they are anti-establishment. The BC NDP is not in that realm.

[ClaytonA]

Originally Posted by whatnext

... anger building that is waiting to be harnessed. ... the old Thatcherite bogeymen like deficits have lost their scare. Voters were quite willing to go for deficit spending. They'd seen governments bail out big business in the Great Recession, ...

I'm not sure that it's anger, so much as a lack of trust. Societally there seems to be a change in what we consider right and wrong, good and bad behaviour. There's different rules for different groups. Look at the Panama Papers with people evading taxes. Look at the homeless camp near the courthouse in a public park in Victoria.

If we cannot trust each other, then well forget the rest of you guys, I have to look after my family first. If you don't have the resources or responsibility (ability to respond), then what do you do? Maybe it's voting anti-establishment because you don't trust any of them?