Have noticed several threads derailed with BC politics. So why not post it all here?! Have been thinking about opening up a BC poli thread lately in any event.
To preface, I have been a poli junkie (some may say nerd
) since Grade 7. Have followed every provincial election (across Canada), CA fed election - even German (federal as well as state), UK, etc. elections. Am addicted to this stuff.
Individual ridings and their demographics as well as historical voting trends thereto, polling (different methodologies) ... you name it.
In that vein, ~10 days prior to the 2013 BC election, I confidently called same (if not here... elsewhere) based upon some high-quality info in the public domain - which was not reported in the MSM. If anyone wants to call me out on same - would gladly provide that info time-line.
Now looking forward to the next election...
Firstly, for a period of 20+ years, very expensive/accurate CATI pollster Mustel provided "free" quarterly polling info. Mustel's accuracy is akin to the federal CATI firm Nanos. And Nanos has always been "bang-on" with their results. Again in the 2015 fed general. Unfortunately, Mustel has not been in the BC field since prior to the BC 2013 BC general - obviously due to the expense. One reason most were "fooled" by the cheap opt-in online panel polls during the 2013 BC general.
Mustel not only provided the horserace numbers but also "Top of the Mind" issues (all unprompted). And those "Top of Mind" issues have always been... the economy, jobs, taxation, fiscal management... then followed by health care, etc.
So let's look at the incumbent BC gov't on that score:
1. 4 years of balanced budgets (actually surpluses) - only one in CA and all other provinces are struggling in that regard;
2. Only province in Canada with a triple-A credit rating (Moodys, S & P, Fitch, and DBRS);
3. Forecast to have the highest growth rate in CA over the next few years (only province with a growth rate in excess of 3%);
4. Highest employment growth rate in CA over past 12 months;
5. Outta 5 different demographic segments, BC has either the 2nd or 3rd lowest overall taxation level provincially in CA (and yes that includes MSP premiums, etc.); As well as lowest corporate tax rate;
The foregoing is definitely a tough nut to crack for any opposition political party seeking to form gov't. Seriously.
Now to political safe seats... have been doing this analysis for a couple of decades - demographics, population growth, historical voting trends, etc. In that vein, the BC Boundaries Commission has completed another redistribution of seats... and the transposed results from 2013 don't change any outcomes thereto.
But the BCBC has added another 2 seats for the next election - one in Richmond and one in southern Surrey (basically my neck of the woods) due to population growth - both can be considered "safe" BC Liberal seats heading into 2017.
Now looking at "safe" seats heading into 2017 and having reviewed all (with transposed results) I confidently come to this conclusion:
1. BC Liberal - 42;
2. BC NDP - 20; (basically the West Kootenay, northern Surrey, New Westminster, southern Burnaby (Edmonds), East Van (and West End), as well as a chunk of Van Isle ridings)
3. BC Green - 1;
4. Ind. - 1;
And when I infer "safe" seats - I mean those with considerable winning margins in 2013 and historically prior as well as demographics. The rest of the 23 remaining ridings are either "leaning" or "swing".
With 87 seats in the new 2017 legislature, the BC Libs seem to have the more "efficient" vote and are basically on the cusp of a majority from the starting gate.
Now let's look at the BC NDP - their leader, an old fella, John Horgan has had numerous "bozo eruptions" as reported by various MSM over the past. Ya know the type, under pressure... says outrageous things... face goes beet red... and then later apologizes for same. If that happens during the 2017 leadership debate... then the guy is done like dinner.
And BC NDP finances are in a shambles... late last year the BC NDP had to sell their decades long HQ on Kingsway in Burnaby in order to help pay-off their 2013 campaign debt. And apparently they still are in debt.
In fact, several private sector BC Building Trades unions have refused to donate to the BC NDP as a result of 3 BC NDP MLAs recently signing onto the "Lelu Declaration". Frankly, I have no idea how the BC NDP will be able to raise $10 million or so within the next 12+ months to mount a credible campaign in 2017.
And then the BC NDP has internal divisions that are politically unfathomable ... hard-core enviros v. resource development types (metallurgical coal mining, base metal mining, BC Hydro's Site C dam, LNG, natural gas fracking, etc. etc.). Both within the party as well as the BC NDP caucus. Frankly, the BC NDP does not know what it stands for any more.
Now let's turn to the BC Greens... received 8% popular vote share in 2013 with the invisible and lacklustre Jane Sterk. Under Andrew Weaver's leadership, they receive considerable MSM coverage - esp. on VI. Weaver is actually quite likable, affable, folksy, and intelligent. I personally like the guy and would have voted for him in his Oak Bay-Gordon Head riding in 2013. Not for the Green Party per se... but for Andrew Weaver himself.
Suspect that Weaver will make a major break-through during the 2017 leadership debate. As a matter of fact, the BC NDP leader has already publicly stated that the BC Greens will "mow their lawn" in 2017. IOW, take popular vote share from the BC NDP.
Bottom line? I will confidently climb out on a limb right now and predict that the BC NDP will have its lowest popular vote share since 1969 (aside from the 2001 debacle). And in terms of seats in 2017... give or take a few:
BC Libs - 60;
BC NDP - 20;
BC Greens - 6;
Ind. - 1;
I suspect that this is gonna be a fun thread... so let 'er rip.
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