City Murder Rates

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by fern

England and Wales Homicide data year ending March 2017
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...ndingmarch2017



England and Wales population 58,381,000
Homicides 613
Homicide rate per 100,000 0.95

What about the entire UK?

[fern]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

What about the netire UK?

Scotland and N Ireland have there own stats

https://www.gov.scot/publications/ho...9781788512367/

All I could find on N Ireland

https://www.irishnews.com/news/2018/...-2017-1222255/

Scotland population 5,254,800 , Homicides 61
N Ireland population 1,870,800, Homicides 15

So roughly The UK has a population of 66,573,504 and 689 Homicides , so just over 1 per 100,000 (maths not being my strong point)

[fern]

Glasgow has for years had the unenviable reputation as the most violent city in the UK 2016-17 stats show 12 homicides in the city population 621,020

[ilcapo]

Stats for the cities in Sweden are hard to come by. You basically have to follow the media and note every single murder/homicide reported in the media to be able to find out stats (which is not definite in other words).

Currently it seems like this is the numbers (1st on january - 25th december).

Sweden (pop 10 mil)
Total: 111
Rate: 1.1 (Basically the same rate since forever)

Greater Stockholm (pop 2.2 mil):
Total: 29 (Down from approx 45 last year)
Rate: 1.3

Gothenburg (pop 570 000)
13 (up from 11 last year)
rate: 2.2

Malmö (pop 333 000).
13
Rate: 3.9

The stats in itself are not that remarkable (Except perhaps Malmös rate which is one of the highest in Western Europe for several years in a row), but what is remarkable is that the majority of these are shootings. A total of 45 people has been shot to death in Sweden in 2018, which is breaking the former record from last year and one of the highest rates in western europe.

The murder-by-gun rate is 10 times higher for young males in Sweden than Germany for example.


(Deadly Shootings of males between the ages of 15 - 29 years old, per 100.000 pop.)

[Pedestrian]

San Francisco’s homicide count may sink to level not seen in 50 years
Evan Sernoffsky Dec. 24, 2018 Updated: Dec. 24, 2018 7:12 a.m.

Violent crime dropped sharply this year in San Francisco, with killings in 2018 approaching the lowest number in more than 50 years to continue a decade-long trend of declining violence around the region . . . .

As of late Saturday, when a man was shot to death in the Excelsior neighborhood, San Francisco had recorded 44 homicides — a 21 percent dip from the last year, when there were 56 killings. If the number holds through the end of the year, 2018 will see the lowest number of homicides since 1963, according to data provided by the state Department of Justice and reports in The Chronicle’s archive.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/ar...o-13485344.php

[Pedestrian]

Murders in US very concentrated: 54% of US counties in 2014 had zero murders, 2% of counties have 51% of the murders
25 APR , 2017



When you look at individual counties with a high number of murders, you find large areas with few murders. Take Los Angeles County, with 526 murders in 2014, the most of any county in the US. The county has virtually no murders in the northwestern part of the county. There was only one murder each in Beverly Hills, Hawthorne, and Van Nuys. Clearly, different parts of the county face very different risks of murder.



This study shows how murders in the United States are heavily concentrated in very small areas. Few appreciate how much of the US has no murders each year. Murder isn’t a nationwide problem. It’s a problem in a very small set of urban areas, and any solution must reduce those murders.

https://crimeresearch.org/2017/04/nu...s-69-1-murder/

This may explain why most Americans don't really feel at risk or threatened.

[bnk]

"This study shows how murders in the United States are heavily concentrated in very small areas. Few appreciate how much of the US has no murders each year. Murder isn’t a nationwide problem. It’s a problem in a very small set of urban areas, and any solution must reduce those murders."


Yep


And not general metro areas but individual neighborhoods. No way LA county the largest in the nation should claim a high murder rate, likewise Chicago or parts of NYC. It is a very concentrated local thing going on there and any EU traveler or anyone else that has any common sense will never venture into any of these said areas, no reason to unless you want to get mugged.

Just because I have never been to Rio or Paris personally myself I would not venture in the no go zones the dangerous arrondissements or the favelas of Rio or be there for any reason. Hell if the police will not even police an area that is a good sign to not venture into that area. Of course there are no signs saying when you are on the wrong side of the track, rail, but like pornography you know it when you see it.

That's gang on gang murder and as long as it is not happening in the right areas they are verboten for the natural citizens of America and forgotten in the lay media.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

https://crimeresearch.org/2017/04/nu...s-69-1-murder/

This may explain why most Americans don't really feel at risk or threatened.

[Pedestrian]

^^Clearly you aren't looking carefully. Take the Bay Area: The inner counties with the densest populations have lower murder rates than the outer suburban counties.

But the real point here is not that numbers decline with population: It's the feast or famine aspect--how many counties have NO murders (yet they do have SOME people). And the point is made even more clearly when you narrow things down to within cities: There are plenty of neighborhoods with lots of people and low crime rates and other neighborhoods with no more people and very high ones.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

And the point is made even more clearly when you narrow things down to within cities: There are plenty of neighborhoods with lots of people and low crime rates and other neighborhoods with no more people and very high ones.

yep.

many outsiders love to envision the entire city of chicago as some post-apocalyptic hellscape of unrelenting violence where people shoot guns at each other on every street corner every 15 minutes, but chicago is FAR from uniformly violent.

- our neighborhood had one murder this year (par for the course for lincoln square), and with population of ~41,000, that's a rate of 2.4 murders per 100k.

- six miles south of us in garfield park, there have been 45 murders so far this year in a neighborhood of ~38,000 people, that's a rate of 118.4 murders per 100k.


people who don't live in cities like chicago simply don't comprehend/appreciate just how ridiculously concentrated the vast majority of this street violence really is.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

yep.

many outsiders love to envision the entire city of chicago as some post-apocalyptic hellscape of unrelenting violence where people shoot guns at each other on every street corner every 15 minutes, but chicago is FAR from uniformly violent.

- our neighborhood had one murder this year (par for the course for lincoln square), and with population of ~41,000, that's a rate of 2.4 murders per 100k.

- six miles south of us in garfield park, there have been 45 murders so far this year in a neighborhood of ~38,000 people, that's a rate of 118.4 murders per 100k.


people who don't live in cities like chicago simply don't comprehend/appreciate just how ridiculously concentrated the vast majority of this street violence really is.

This is not a slag, but as a non-American when people post about this reality it all seems very alien to me - the idea that my area could be that peaceful and that a 15-minute transit ride away there are communities where violent crime rate may be similar to parts of Brazil, El Salvador, Venezuela or South Africa.

That my kids might venture there by accident (getting off at the wrong transit stop) or that you have a car breakdown there in the middle of the night (à la Bonfire of the Vanities or Adventures in Babysitting )

I mean, I realize that it's not that dramatic - I've travelled in and through cities in the U.S. where there are "bad" areas on numerous occasions.

Still, living there with that duality I do think probably does put you in a different mindset.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Still, living there with that duality I do think probably does put you in a different mindset.

maybe.

i've lived here my entire life, it's all i've ever known.

it doesn't seem unusual or strange at all to me, just really unfortunate.

and it's nothing new, it's been like this in chicago for the past 6 decades with no change in the pattern in sight.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

maybe.

i've lived here my entire life, it's all i've ever known.

it doesn't seem unusual or strange at all to me, just really unfortunate.

and it's nothing new, it's been like this in chicago for the past 6 decades with no change in the pattern in sight.

As I mentioned it wasn't a slag and I am glad you did not take it that way.

Though a turnaround is always possible, as evidenced by what's happened in NYC. And of course, slippage in the wrong direction is also possible, as we see in a few Canadian and European cities at the moment.

[dc_denizen]

Originally Posted by Acajack

This is not a slag, but as a non-American when people post about this reality it all seems very alien to me - the idea that my area could be that peaceful and that a 15-minute transit ride away there are communities where violent crime rate may be similar to parts of Brazil, El Salvador, Venezuela or South Africa.

That my kids might venture there by accident (getting off at the wrong transit stop) or that you have a car breakdown there in the middle of the night (à la Bonfire of the Vanities or Adventures in Babysitting )

I mean, I realize that it's not that dramatic - I've travelled in and through cities in the U.S. where there are "bad" areas on numerous occasions.

Still, living there with that duality I do think probably does put you in a different mindset.

Didn't toronto have around 100 murders this year? And weren't most of the murders concentrated in certain neighborhoods/among certain ethnic groups?

according to a recent study, african-canadians are 20x (!!!) more likely to be killed by police than any other group.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...mission-report

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

Didn't toronto have around 100 murders this year? And weren't most of the murders concentrated in certain neighborhoods/among certain ethnic groups?

according to a recent study, african-canadians are 20x (!!!) more likely to be killed by police than any other group.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...mission-report

Yeah, that's why I said there was "slippage" occurring in certain Canadian and European cities.

[Crawford]

Population is only concentrated in only a few tiny geographies, so, yeah, obviously murders are only concentrated in a few tiny geographies. That doesn't mean, however, that most of America has few murders, it means most of America has few people.

In short, maps are a silly way of looking at murders. It isn't land, it's people.

[softee]

Toronto's 95 homicides so far this year are pretty evenly distributed across the entire city.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Population is only concentrated in only a few tiny geographies, so, yeah, obviously murders are only concentrated in a few tiny geographies. That doesn't mean, however, that most of America has few murders, it means most of America has few people.

In short, maps are a silly way of looking at murders. It isn't land, it's people.

In other words, in order to get an accurate picture you'd have to overlay the murders by county map with a population density map.

It might not correlate perfectly but it would be pretty darn close.

[softee]

Toronto is at 96 now.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by Acajack

This is not a slag, but as a non-American when people post about this reality it all seems very alien to me - the idea that my area could be that peaceful and that a 15-minute transit ride away there are communities where violent crime rate may be similar to parts of Brazil, El Salvador, Venezuela or South Africa.

That my kids might venture there by accident (getting off at the wrong transit stop) or that you have a car breakdown there in the middle of the night (à la Bonfire of the Vanities or Adventures in Babysitting )

I mean, I realize that it's not that dramatic - I've travelled in and through cities in the U.S. where there are "bad" areas on numerous occasions.

Still, living there with that duality I do think probably does put you in a different mindset.

Let's be honest. These "bad areas" are what we used to call "ghettos": neighborhoods of very poor, mostly minority people fighting among themselves over the crumbs of society.

We have been trying for generations to find ways to deal with generational poverty and the crime it breeds . . . with little success except by incarcerating large percentages of the populations of these neighborhoods (which we have done).

But there is almost no chance someone not forced by their socio-economic reality to live in these areas would have to go there or, if they are smart, would go there. Your kids would only venture there if they are in the market for drugs. I suppose they might wish to ride a bus line that transits one of these zones but that's why God gave us Uber: You don't need to subject yourself to the "blinders on" mentality of a city transit bureaucrat pretending it's safe to send the rest of the public into the war zone.

Why doesn't Canada have this issue? Well Canada didn't have slavery for a start (and the legacy of that is responsible for a lot of what is still going on). And Canada has the US as a buffer between it and the poverty, crime and violence of Latin America. Finally, one might blame US gun policy but I am confident these neighborhoods would be as dangerous for outsiders even if there weren't guns. Most of the shootings are of neighborhood rivals and are not mass events like the more famous school incidents. Once the weapon of choice may have been the switch blade knife, and it could be again, but the neighborhoods were still dangerous.