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The 2014 plan was 1.4 Billion. Three times that would be 4.2 Billion. I didn't claim that.
Math!
But the 2014 plan was 1.4 Billion for ~10 miles. Not everything scales linearly, but as a first order approximation, your proposal is at least 50% longer, which brings it up to ~2 Billion.
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The plan was for 1.38 billion. Minus 400 million for roads, minus 175 million for a signature bridge, minus 220 million for a tunnel to go under 6 blocks.
Roughly 600 million for the rail times ~50% + inflation will still be nowhere near 2 billion as you claimed. It should (even at such a large length, which helps bring in a lot more potential voters) be LESS than the bond they floated in 14'.
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That's exactly bass-ackwards. You plan first, figure out where you really need to put the system, then pass the bonds
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We have more than enough data to make the decision that has been there for around 2 decades. We have wasted enough time with studies, this system should have been up and running already. BTW, the city has chosen the firm to do the next corridor study, and what a surprise....it wasn't Project Connect!!! So even if nothing happens this year the G/L alignment will be chosen, we may just have to wait a few more years to get there, which is too bad since it is already probably too late.
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Quit it with this nonsense.
1) The 1 corridor saw a large _increase_ of service with the introduction of the metrorapid.
2) It doesn't pay for the red line. Rather the reverse, the (existence of) the rail subsidizes bus service.
Every year, CapMetro takes in ~$50M for the quarter cent sales tax originally intended for rail service. Spends a fraction of it on the red line, then uses the rest for the bus service in the general budget.
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Everything I can find has ridership DOWN, 3.6% for the overall system during 2014. It has been stagnating for around a decade while spending more all the time.
Here is an old link that mentions that quarter sent they stopped paying years ago. If they are spending the rest on bus service (some was supposed to go to a future LR line also, where is that money?) then why is the service dipping in ridership?? Maybe, just maybe now that they improved frequencies a few months ago they will get it back up. If it is true that the old #1's numbers have actually increased I can't find anything to back that up but if so then that is yet another indicator that is the best alignment for rail.
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Which is a big problem with your proposal. If the buses are almost full at Kramer and Lamar, then people are boarding even further north. Presumably a lot at the Tech Ridge Park and Ride.
So you're proposing people drive the park and ride, park, wait for a bus, ride it 4 miles to Lamar and Rundberg, get off, wait for the train, board, and then ride it to their final destination?
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First of all that is a presumption, many people get on right off of Lamar. But even in your scenario (which would be some people), yes, that sounds a lot better than being stuck in traffic on a bus the whole way.
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Sure, rail. A small "demonstration" system. Not a multi-billion $ system (unfortunately).
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He has said both that and the need for a comprehensive system. One thing we know for sure about our mayor after a year is that he has not been an effective communicator. Either way it shows he is hearing the the message that rail is needed.
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1) But the question is so open-ended, the definition of "rail" is completely subjective. For some people, that may mean they support a commuter rail (only). For some, that may mean they support an urban light rail (only). For some, it may mean just a downtown streetcar.
2) Again, as the proposal moves from the abstract to the concrete, the route gets nailed down. It can't and won't serve everyone, so _some_ support will inevitably drop as people discover they're not in the first few stages of service, or will never receive service.
3) And as it becomes nailed down, the price increases. People may support cheap rail in the abstract, and drop support for a system in the $Billions.
If you try and offer more of 1) to more people, or more of 2), then the price drastically increases, and you lose support via 3). It's going to be a tough balancing act.
And then, with that latest poll, it was corrected for Austin's demographics as a whole. Not the demographics of the expected voters.
Support drops a bit for those >35 years old, and pretty significantly for those who have been in Austin the longest. And the turnout for a bond election will tend to have over-representation from those groups.
A lot of voter education is necessary, and you need to convince people that they're better off with a rail system, even one that doesn't serve them directly.
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None of this shows that it can't be done. We have a clear vision of what not to do from Project Connect.
Look at your own freaking map.
http://centralaustincdc.org/transpor...light_rail.htm
The dark purple cluster is East of guadalupe.
West of Guadalupe it's a light purple. And presumably many/most of those jobs are commercial/restaurant jobs filled by local students.
and no, it's not 178k jobs in the northern portion. It's 171k jobs for the _entire_ route.
As you have stated, it is not about having one dense cluster, it is about connecting the dense clusters of work/population. The G/L alignment does that better than anywhere else in the city. Just because one part of the density is east of the line (yet still walkable) means nothing. With the 2014 plan it would have hit that cluster but it didn't connect them to the right places. OR THEIR PROJECTIONS WOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH HIGHER, LIKE THOSE WE WILL SEE FOR A G/L ALIGNMENT. The 178,000 are along the northern section of their plan.
http://centralaustincdc.org/images/A...nt_Centers.jpg
Again, no other part of the city can do this.