Winnipeg CMA Population in 5 Years: Predictions

[Biff]

802 sounds good. I hope to see us reach a million in my lifetime.

[Riverman]

Originally Posted by wags_in_the_peg

I personally know 2 families (mid 40's with 2 kids each) moving to BC, 1 going to victoria, other going nanaimo area. similar jobs to here (IT, finance) and house prices are not that far off from what they have here. low $400k. this past winter did them in and this summer mosquitos and general not happy with Peg city. so our immigrant population is growing, but others are leaving.

A buddy just retired from Victoria to Nanaimo, sold his modest house for $700K and bought one for $400K.

It is known locally as "cashing out". He did it twice before - once from from Van to Surrey, then from Surrey to Vic.

[Chadillaccc]

Originally Posted by esquire

There are some huge numbers for several cities, though... they have Calgary at almost 1.4 million and Toronto close to 6 million!

Those numbers are both correct though. Last year, Calgary's CMA was 1 365 000 and Toronto's was 5 959 000. A lot of those numbers do seem out of whack though, specifically KWC and St. Catherines Nigara.

Interesting to see Winnipeg sneeking up on 800 000 so quick though

Originally Posted by blueandgoldguy

Hey Chadillaccc did you notice that Western Canada outpaced Eastern Canada in population growth. I'm not talking about percentage growth either as that's been happening for awhile. In terms of absolute numbers, the west outpaced the east by 40,000 or so (I did quick calculations so my numbers might be a touch off).

We need to let the good folks on the Canada population thread know about this!

haha I did notice that! But it's never a great thing to post such things on the Canada Section, a couple easterners might have a logic error induced aneurysm.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc

Those numbers are both correct though. Last year, Calgary's CMA was 1 365 000 and Toronto's was 5 959 000. A lot of those numbers do seem out of whack though, specifically KWC and St. Catherines Nigara.

Interesting to see Winnipeg sneeking up on 800 000 so quick though

For the longest time it seemed as though population growth in Winnipeg stalled completely... for over 20 years we were in the 600,000 range (with a year or two of decreases) before finally cracking 700,000. Getting from there to 800,000 will have taken roughly half as long.

[Chadillaccc]

800 000 is a great milestone. With that, hopefully it will take half as long again, to reach 900 000. Accelerating returns if you will

[Jammon]

Originally Posted by wags_in_the_peg

I personally know 2 families (mid 40's with 2 kids each) moving to BC, 1 going to victoria, other going nanaimo area. similar jobs to here (IT, finance) and house prices are not that far off from what they have here. low $400k. this past winter did them in and this summer mosquitos and general not happy with Peg city. so our immigrant population is growing, but others are leaving.

It's interesting where "anecdotal" evidence will lead you. I work in nursing and I see the request for transfers come by my desk and by and far the greatest outflux is from BC east (mostly AB). But in general, we have more coming to MB from BC than the other way. Their health care industry is being hacked and so many health care providers are leaving BC.

[Cyro]

Originally Posted by Jammon

It's interesting where "anecdotal" evidence will lead you. I work in nursing and I see the request for transfers come by my desk and by and far the greatest outflux is from BC east (mostly AB). But in general, we have more coming to MB from BC than the other way. Their health care industry is being hacked and so many health care providers are leaving BC.

Very astute observation. I tend to want to here both sides of a discussion or situation before I decide which way I may lean. In my personal circle of acquaintances, anecdotal, in the last 6 months 2 lifers from BC and Alberta have both returned to Winnipeg to pursue other opportunities?

[UPP]

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a47

Here's the most recent stats from Statistics Canada. Manitoba is still losing more people to western provinces than it is gaining back. Your anecdotal evidence is true though, there are still people moving to Manitoba, just not as frequently as those moving out.

[Riverman]

^^^ Link no worky.

[1ajs]

wait we broke 800k pop???
also looks like 71 people answered this poll corectly from 2009... outa 160 interesting...

[scryer]

Originally Posted by 1ajs

wait we broke 800k pop???
also looks like 71 people answered this poll corectly from 2009... outa 160 interesting...

Oh no! I lost!

As someone who sold drugs in both provinces (in the Pharmaceutical industry, thank you very much!) I can definitely say that Manitoba has the better Pharmacare system. So I can understand why healthcare workers are moving out east. For the record, Ontario has the BEST Pharmacare network.

[1ajs]

huh?

[DonaldSmith]

http://www.winnipeg.ca/cao/pdfs/population.pdf

[thebasketballgeek]

why is selkirk not a part of the cma?

[Spocket]

Originally Posted by thebasketballgeek

why is selkirk not a part of the cma?

Because it has nothing to do with proximity. It's about who works where. Basically, if 50%+ of the population of any jurisdiction works in and therefore commutes to some other jurisdiction every day then they're all counted together as part of a CMA. That's why Mississauga isn't part of the Toronto CMA nor is Oshawa despite the fact that they're all part of one contiguous city.

In this case it comes down to the fact that Selkirk isn't a bedroom community but rather has enough industry of its own such that more than half of the workers need not leave to go to Winnipeg every morning for work.

[Authentic_City]

Originally Posted by thebasketballgeek

why is selkirk not a part of the cma?

It doesn't meet the Stats Can criteria:

http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...geo009-eng.cfm


"To be included in the CMA or CA, other adjacent municipalities must have a high degree of integration with the core, as measured by commuting flows derived from previous census place of work data."
...

"Forward commuting flow rule: Given a minimum of 100 commuters, at least 50% of the employed labour force living in the CSD works in the delineation core (see following note), as determined from commuting data based on the place of work question in the previous census."
...

"Reverse commuting flow rule: Given a minimum of 100 commuters, at least 25% of the employed labour force working in the CSD lives in the delineation core as determined from commuting data based on the place of work question in the previous census. "

[vid]

Mississauga is in Toronto's CMA. Oshawa isn't, not because it doesn't apply (it actually does, now) but because once a CMA is created, it can't be downgraded, dissolved, or merged into another CMA.

Selkirk isn't part of Winnipeg's CMA because too many people who live in Selkirk don't work in Winnipeg's CMA.

[thebasketballgeek]

thanks for answer

[Spocket]

Originally Posted by vid

Mississauga is in Toronto's CMA. Oshawa isn't, not because it doesn't apply (it actually does, now) but because once a CMA is created, it can't be downgraded, dissolved, or merged into another CMA.

Selkirk isn't part of Winnipeg's CMA because too many people who live in Selkirk don't work in Winnipeg's CMA.

Yeah, you're right. I got confused with the fact that it's not actually within the Toronto city boundaries. I still remember when it was all separate cities.

[bomberguy]

Originally Posted by bomberguy

1,000,000

I win.

Edit: Can't believe it's been five years. I swear I posted this yesterday.