Quote:
Originally Posted by yuriandrade
With COVID-19 deaths plus no immigration, the US is set to decline between mid-2020 and mid-2021. By 2030, people born in 1950 (4 million) will start to die en masse (the US life expectancy is 78 y/o) and therefore there will be close to 4 million people dying every year by 2030. Births are decline steadily and will be around 3.5 million (optimisti) or below 3 million (pessimist).
1 million immigrants will be required to keep population stable. Much more to keep it growing.
No, they haven't. It's at 1.69 and falling. And as life expectancy is very low for a developed country, earlier deaths make things more complicated.
I don't understand why should I be worry about the UK or Brazil, nor how this has any implications on the US demographics challenges.
The UK is attracting not fewer immigrants than US, despite being an overcrowded island with 1/5 of the US population. In any case, as the whole world minus Africa and Middle East, is set to decline somewhere between 2020-2050.
Same for Brazil: population is younger than the US, life expectancy growing, but low TFR (1.70, like the US) will make the country to shrink between the late 2030's or early 2040's, few years after the US.
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This assumes there's no pendulum impact whatsoever.
Facially, yes, according to the Census Bureau (
https://www.census.gov/prod/2014pubs/p25-1141.pdf), there were 71,263,000 Baby Boomers in 2020. By 2040, that will shrink to 39,381,000. By 2060, they'll be all but dead with 2,445,000 left.
So yes, there's a demographic cliff of a good 69,000,000 people dying in the next 40 years. So we'd need to
increase immigration by a further 1.7 million, the 40-year average, to smooth out that decline.
But America's immigration conundrum isn't hard to resolve. It's essentially a political decision made by a nativist right-wing base that less migrants, even at the risk of demographic death, is "better" for the long-term "character" (we all know what this means) of the country.
Thankfully, it's that nativist right-wing base that will be disproportionately decimated by the Baby Boomers dying off. In other words, those 69 million deaths will remove the key political obstacle that prevents the U.S. from increasing immigration by 1.7 million.
I don't see a demographic decline at any point in the near term. This has Newton's Third Law of Motion written all over it.