Quote:
Originally Posted by Nathan
It's been in the 2-3% range for the last while. If Regina (a little over 230k) grows at 3% for the next 20 years... It will indeed be over 400k. Definitely on the high side of projections, but not as ridiculous as you're making it out to be.
Usually when doing population projections, you use a compound rate rather than a linear amount.
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at 2%, 230k grows to 341k over 20 years
at 3%, 230k grows to 415k over 20 years
These are aggressive growth rates to sustain for 20 years... from 2006-2013, Regina CMA grew by slightly over 2.5% annually (195k to 232.1k).
Safe to say Calgary's been at the high end of Canadian population growth over the past couple of decades & its CMA has grown by about 3.4% annually over from 2006-2013. When we look at a longer timeframe (17years), Calgary has maintained a 3% average annual growth (822k in 1996 to 1.365million in 2013).
A more stable, but growing, city is Ottawa: it's grown at 2.1% from 2006-2013. Over the longer timeframe, Ottawa CMA has maintained 1.55% average annual growth (1.002million in 1996 to 1.305million in 2013).
If Regina CMA maintains growth at a similar rate to Ottawa's longer-term rate (1.55 over 17years), we'd be looking at a 2034 population of 313k.