Let's do 17 between Nipigon and SSM first, to show our determination in getting this done!
Nah, I'm just kidding.
I have a lot of political assumptions built into this, so I will go along that line of thinking.
Let's say that we start in the middle of year 2022 and that the government actually cares about 17.
Case I: PC majority
(1) 417 will progress towards Deep River because one can technically still make a case with AADT up to that point (7400 at Deep River). From there to Renfrew - Nipissing Boundary (2900), it really depends on Yakabuski's sway.
(2) If Nipissing stays blue, North Bay Route 6 will be built in conjunction with the freeway from North Bay to Renfrew - Nipissing Boundary. If the riding goes red instead, only the latter will get built.
(3) If Kenora - Rainy stays blue, 17 will be twinned to Kenora. Otherwise, nothing will be done.
(4) Thunder Bay - Nipigon Corridor will keep seeing actions until every bit of it is twinned (yes, even with a Liberal safe seat).
(5) Yakabuski may use his sway to bridge the gap between Renfrew - Nipissing Boundary and Deep River, finally bringing 417 to NEO. Yay, we already did it for Toronto - North Bay, and now we will have done it for Ottawa - North Bay too.
(6) PC won't do stuff for NDP safe seats, as is evidenced by the sudden cancellation of Hamilton LRT.
Case II: Liberal majority
(1) Thunder Bay - Nipigon Corridor will see actions (including Thunder Bay Expressway in the city proper).
(2) If Thunder Bay - Atikokan returns red, there may be action even between Port Arthur and Shabaqua Corners via Kakabeka Falls. Otherwise, nothing happens.
(3) If Sudbury goes red, we may finally see SW and SE Bypasses twinned and Denlou Bypass built. If it goes orange, it stays as is.
(4) If North Bay goes red, Route 6 will be done. Otherwise, there's nothing.
(5) 17 between Sudbury and Markstay will be twinned.
(6) If SSM goes red, there's a very slim chance that 17 will be twinned from Sudbury to there. It's very slim, though.
(7) Liberals don't care about NDP safe seats north of North Bay.
Case III: Liberal minority with NDP holding balance of power (or the other way around)
This one is the easiest.
(1) Highway 17 from Denlou to Markstay will be done first.
(2) If North Bay goes red, Route 6 will be done. Otherwise, there's nothing.
(3) The entire 176 km of Shabaqua Corners - Nipigon Corridor (via Kakabeka Falls and Port Arthur) will see action.
(4) Highway 11 may actually be twinned from North Bay toward Temiskaming Shores.
(5) If Kenora - Rainy River returns orange, Highway 17 will be twinned towards Kenora. Otherwise, nothing will be done.
(6) Highway 417 will be snarled at Arnprior for the next while...
I'm not at all confident in my projection, by the way.
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