AUSTIN | ABIA Updates

[Austin1971]

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[GoldenBoot]

Correct me if I am wrong; but, based on a conservative 4% annual growth in PAX, won't the 7-gate expansion be obsolete prior to 2024 (Less than seven years after it's completion).

The new 7-gate expansion is being designed to accommodate an additional 4MM PAX to the current ABIA max of 11MM.

*At an annual 4% increase, ABIA will be serving 15.5MM PAX by the end of 2024.
*At an annual 5% increase, ABIA will be serving 15.6MM PAX by the end of 2022.
*At an annual 6% increase, ABIA will be serving 15.1MM PAX by the end of 2020.

Are they aiming too low in this expansion? Yes! As soon as this expansion is complete (or before), ABIA may need to execute further expansion.

Once again, Austin is knowingly setting itself up for playing catch-up on growth...what's new? It does not bode well from an metro-wide economic development standpoint! ABIA will seem to always be "underserved," based upon its true potential.

[austlar1]

Seems to me that most airports with expanding passenger business are never really finished. Just about every major airport I can think of in the US seems always to have some kind of terminal expansion or reconfiguration planned or under construction. I think Austin can add some gates now and wait until a later date to decide on a mid-field terminal or some other configuration that might eventually be able to accommodate a rail connection within the terminal. Bergstrom, even at 10 million passengers, rarely feels especially crowded or congested.

[Jdawgboy]

I think that is one of the cool aspects about ABIA, it doesn't feel cramped and Im sure it has to do with it's design. It is easy to get into the terminal and to your gate. I also think the high spacious ceiling and glass walls help with that perception. It is a great design for a terminal and it has won awards due to that fact.

I do feel that its aiming a bit low on the projection. My thinking is they will have to start the next expansion before 2025.

[the Genral]

I think of the current gate expansion as merely a completion of the original design. I do hope they decide on a seperate terminal when they do expand again. Branching off the current terminal would potentially lead to long walks to the furthest gates which is not the convenience I like about the current layout.

[hereinaustin]

Originally Posted by the Genral

I think of the current gate expansion as merely a completion of the original design. I do hope they decide on a seperate terminal when they do expand again. Branching off the current terminal would potentially lead to long walks to the furthest gates which is not the convenience I like about the current layout.

Whatever course they end up taking for the expansion after this one, I think it should incorporate a rail line into the city and cover both terminals.

[Austin1971]

[q

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by Austin1971

Everything I've heard is that the next phase for expansion will be to build piers off the exisiting terminal. A new midfield terminal is an option but the airport would need a commitment from an airline prior to it being built. Essentially an airline would have to make ABIA a hub for that to occur. Time will tell.

Also the terminal's current configuration was never intended to handle wide-body aircraft. Not only are the gates too closely positioned, the internal roadway system is too small. The new BA flight will introduce cargo containers which the airport was not designed to handle. The Tug tunnel running the length of the terminal is too narrow and will not allow two-way travel while a container is be transported for loading/unloading of luggage. This will be a problem. But like anything else the port will adapt and manage. It's a good thing to have because it means the airport is booming and growing faster than originally planned. If the BA flight is a success it won't be long before other carriers begin to contemplate serving Austin. Korean Air, Japan Airlines and Emirates are 3 that we may someday see serving Austin. The Dreamliner is a game changer and Austin is going to benefit greatly from it.

I love the idea of Korean, Japan and Emirates looking into Austin as possible route expansions. However, I see Korean and Japan far more likely than Emirates. Austin does not have the numbers in oil and gas businesses to sustain that route. And, if I'm not mistaken, I thought I read that Seoul was the 3rd or 4th most popular international destination of passengers originating out of ABIA.

As for expansion, the original plan (when the airport was designed in the mid 90's) was to have two additional concourses protrude out from the current terminal. Since then, I thought that the new master plan for ABIA was to complete the extension of the east concourse of the Jordan terminal (which is in the works). Then, when necessary, construct a completely new South Terminal. After that terminal was extended as far as designed, the next step was to begin construction of up to two midfield terminals/concourses between the two terminals. All would be connected by underground transport ("train") and road network.

I'll have to find the "recommended" plan...describing the aforementioned (Concept A-07A).

At total buildout, ABIA could have as many as 120-150 gates (based on the "recommended" plan with expansions to the South Terminal and the two midfield concourses).

EDIT: Refer to Concept A-07A...In this concept, notice the two dotted midfield terminals which could be constructed at a some point in the future.

[electricron]

Originally Posted by GoldenBoot

I'll have to find the "recommended" plan...describing the aforementioned (Concept A-07A).

At total buildout, ABIA could have as many as 120-150 gates (based on the "recommended" plan with expansions to the South Terminal and the two midfield concourses).

In this concept, notice the two dotted midfield terminals which could be constructed at a some point in the future.

The link showed Concept A-06A not A-07A and was missing two midfield concourses. Am I missing it?

Will ABIA ever need more than two terminals?

[electricron]

Originally Posted by hereinaustin

Whatever course they end up taking for the expansion after this one, I think it should incorporate a rail line into the city and cover both terminals.

Why? Both Dallas and Houston choked on tunneling under airport runways and taxiways. The Feds would NOT allow DART to tunnel under Love Field and still participate at 50% funding for its Green Line. Who are you going to find to fund expensive train tunnels under airports?
Be happy the trains even gets close to one of the terminals, and make sure the terminals are within walking distance of each other by tunnel and moving sidewalks is what I recommend. That's what you can afford and will find airliners willing to support financially.

[Austin1971]

[q

[Jdawgboy]

Another point to make is similar to the Asian (especially Korean) population that is growing rapidly, hence why a direct flight to Seoul is the next logical international route (large Samsung Presence another),....The middle Eastern population in Austin has really taken off. Just in the past two years alone we have seen a rapid increase in growth which is why it wouldn't be far fetched to see an international route with Emirates.

Austin's population demographics are really diversifying with a truly international spectrum. We have always had a bit of that with UT, but things have changed in the fact that more people are moving here from other countries that's not due to the University and many more people who did come here to go to UT are staying rather than leaving when they graduate.

We are still in the early stages and the International diversity is still a small percentage of the overall population but it will continue to grow and it's going to grow rapidly.

[NYC2ATX]

Originally Posted by Jdawgboy

Another point to make is similar to the Asian (especially Korean) population that is growing rapidly, hence why a direct flight to Seoul is the next logical international route (large Samsung Presence another),....The middle Eastern population in Austin has really taken off. Just in the past two years alone we have seen a rapid increase in growth which is why it wouldn't be far fetched to see an international route with Emirates.

Austin's population demographics are really diversifying with a truly international spectrum. We have always had a bit of that with UT, but things have changed in the fact that more people are moving here from other countries that's not due to the University and many more people who did come here to go to UT are staying rather than leaving when they graduate.

We are still in the early stages and the International diversity is still a small percentage of the overall population but it will continue to grow and it's going to grow rapidly.

I love that. IMO every world-class American city earns such a title in part from being a place of great diversity and thereby opportunity to experience many different cultures in one place. For Austin to develop that would really increase its international street-cred.

Also, I'd be the first one in line if a new fusion cuisine marrying Texas BBQ with Korean BBQ became popular. Unless this already exists, in which case someone needs to tell me where

[Jdawgboy]

Originally Posted by electricron

Will ABIA ever need more than two terminals?

It doesn't matter whether ABIA will ever need more than two terminals, only time and demand will answer that. The point is Austin was lucky to obtain the old air base to build a new airport and there is plenty of room to grow to possibly have that many gates if needed. The airport is not landlocked like many other airports, there's already plenty of space on the airport for expansion. The full build out master plan is just an overall blueprint for the airport's growth, it doesn't necessarily mean a full build out will for sure happen.

ABIA may not end up with 120 to 150 gates but the fact that we can build up to that amount makes it a favorable airport for a future hub. Jet Blue has a sort of mini hub at ABIA. It's not out of the realm of possibility that they could build off of that to create a central hub. ABIA would make a logical location for a hub in Texas outside of Houston and Dallas because of the available space to do so quickly.

I myself like the fact that Austin is primarily a destination airport because it shows the strength in our market as well as a desirable travel destination. Rather than just passing through people come to stay whether it be for business or pleasure.

[ATXboom]

Originally Posted by StatenIslander237

Also, I'd be the first one in line if a new fusion cuisine marrying Texas BBQ with Korean BBQ became popular. Unless this already exists, in which case someone needs to tell me where

It exists with Chilantro. It's more Korean Mexican fusion but sources tx BBQ meats as base.

[Plaid Shirts]

I think it's near impossible for Austin to get Emirates. I can think of many cities before Austin that would get Emirates before them....Miami, Detroit, Chicago, Atlanta, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Charlotte, Minneapolis, Orlando, and Newark all come to mind.

As for Korean Air, I don't see them ever adding Austin.

I think one airline to watch would be Condor. I can see them eventually adding non-stop service to Frankfurt.

As far as ABIA becoming a hub, I can see JetBlue or Virgin America making ABIA a hub.

[ATXboom]

Actually Korean air would be the first addition beyond the London flight. Both are based on the employment base here (biz travel). Samsung has their north
American hq here. And u can search for
Point to point travel between cities. Outside Canada and Mexico
Uk is 1 and Korea 2. (really Asia in general with all
Of the supply side tech partners of austin based cOmpanies located there.)

In short, demand says Asia, Korea specifically is next if/when it happens. Theyve also ordered 787s which would enable them to service Austin.

What were you basing your assumptions of no Korean service on?

[JGFrisco]

Originally Posted by Plaid Shirts

I think it's near impossible for Austin to get Emirates. I can think of many cities before Austin that would get Emirates before them....Miami, Detroit, Chicago, Atlanta, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Charlotte, Minneapolis, Orlando, and Newark all come to mind.

As for Korean Air, I don't see them ever adding Austin.

I think one airline to watch would be Condor. I can see them eventually adding non-stop service to Frankfurt.

As far as ABIA becoming a hub, I can see JetBlue or Virgin America making ABIA a hub.

There is very little likelihood of Austin becoming a hub city, for numerous reasons.

1) The biggest is that there are two mega hubs very close by, at DFW and IAH.

2) Southwest already has two semi-hubs at Love Field (which will be open to the entire country, no Wright Amendment, in October), and at Hobby.

3) The Austin metro area develops only a medium level of passengers, and not a ton of tourists.

Hubs work on connecting traffic, and anyone connecting through this area would go AA or UA through DFW or Houston. A smaller airline can't remotely compete with those megahubs.

Smaller hubs are actually dying. From Memphis to St. Louis to Pittsburgh to Cleveland, they are closing up shop.

[ILUVSAT]

Originally Posted by electricron

The link showed Concept A-06A not A-07A and was missing two midfield concourses. Am I missing it?

Will ABIA ever need more than two terminals?

There are 17 pages in that section of the Master Plan. Concept A-07A is on page 5-29.

Market demand will always dictate if additional gate are necessary. In 35, 45, 55+ years...yes, maybe the market will dictate two terminals with two midfield concourses at ABIA.

[Plaid Shirts]

Originally Posted by ATXboom

Actually Korean air would be the first addition beyond the London flight. Both are based on the employment base here (biz travel). Samsung has their north
American hq here. And u can search for
Point to point travel between cities. Outside Canada and Mexico
Uk is 1 and Korea 2. (really Asia in general with all
Of the supply side tech partners of austin based cOmpanies located there.)

In short, demand says Asia, Korea specifically is next if/when it happens. Theyve also ordered 787s which would enable them to service Austin.

What were you basing your assumptions of no Korean service on?

When was the last time you recently saw at least two major trans-oceanic international airlines serving a mid sized U.S. city in the lower 48? I can't think of any. Korean Air isn't an airline that goes after cities such as Austin, Portland, Salt Lake City, etc. Korean Air serves cities like Seattle, Atlanta, Los Angeles, Dallas, Houston, etc.

Having Korean Air serve Austin is similar to having Korean Air serve Oakland. You already have Korean Air flying to San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Las Vegas... all within an hour flight or a 30 minute drive from Oakland. As I already stated Korean Air already serves DFW and IAH. I wouldn't count on Asiana serving Austin as well.