Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[lirette]

I'm genuinely curious, if they get rid of the tax and life is essentially just as expensive but these people protesting at are no longer getting the checks every 3 months what are they going to say? I haven't seen anyone present the math that the carbon tax is costing most people more, I've only personally seen rhetoric and the rhetoric is winning the battle.

Economist Trevor Tombe presented the biggest deep dive on the data that I've seen and everything does in fact show that the carbon tax has a positive economic affect on most individuals and the ones where it is negative or roughly even is far less.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Back to the federal level.......This Ipsos poll projection seems like it must be an aberration but I suppose the Liberals have been down that far before.

I'm surprised to see that much NDP strength with Singh as leader. Although, I suppose he could be benefitting from an "at least he's not Trudeau" thought process.

https://twitter.com/NickKouvalis/sta...75193698013596

I'm still half wondering if JT won't pull a Mulroney, find himself a Kim Campbell, and slip away.....leaving them for the slaughter.

He seems to think, and I tend to agree, that is the less responsible thing to do. Go down swinging and he probably thinks he car recover. Being in Halifax for Easter from Ontario I'm shocked how many retired Atlantic Canadians still think Trudeau can come back. Nobody says that in Toronto and Ottawa where I usually frequent.

[lirette]

Re: forced treatment policy

Some numbers released today indicate there is a wait-list of 200 people for voluntary treatment with wait times of anywhere between 3 & 8 months.

[drewber]

Originally Posted by lirette

Re: forced treatment policy

Some numbers released today indicate there is a wait-list of 200 people for voluntary treatment with wait times of anywhere between 3 & 8 months.

My roommate went on the rehab list for alcoholism may 2023 and finally got in Jan 2024.mind you this was in Campbellton as it would of been longer for Saint John. She is female and there are fewer beds for women as well

[adamuptownsj]

Antigonish and county merger canceled, per All NS.

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

Just saw a tweet from Jacques Poitras that Bruce Fitch who is the second longest serving MLA has annouced he will retire. Another PC incumbent retires. Brings the number up to 11 PC winners from 2020 not running again

[sailor734]

Poitras' CBC story here...https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...s-nb-1.7164752

Once the PC's start nominating replacements it will be interesting to see if a lot of them are far right Faytine types.

[adamuptownsj]

New Brunswick city councils are far too large and unwieldy. Paying them a trivial salary ensures we get grifters. Should we keep the councils large and make them fully volunteer, or should we shrink them and pay enough of a full time wage to attract mid-career professionals?

[lirette]

MLA Gary Crossman is resigning from cabinet and as an MLA effectively immediately, citing looking after his health and his political and personal beliefs not aligning with the party.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by lirette

MLA Gary Crossman is resigning from cabinet and as an MLA effectively immediately, citing looking after his health and his political and personal beliefs not aligning with the party.

Interesting. I wonder why he chose now when he didn't resign over the Faytine thing last fall or during the whole Policy 713 hoopla?

[adamuptownsj]

PCs nominate the mayor of New Maryland, Judy Wilson-Shee, for Hanwell-New Maryland. Open seat made of portions of Dominic Cardy and Jeff Carr's old seats.

[sailor734]

As most will know Dr John Dornan was nominated as the Liberal candidate in Portland Simonds last week.

Former PC MP John Herron to be nominated as a Liberal candidate in Hampton-Fundy-St Martins tonight

https://twitter.com/poitrasCBC/statu...09834437709984

[adamuptownsj]

Looking at nominations...

• PCs have 24 candidates selected and 5 conventions scheduled this month. Glen Savoie and AAM are the last two incumbents who have neither been renominated nor confirmed their retirement.
• Liberals have 34 candidates selected and 1 convention scheduled this month. All incumbents have been renominated (albeit Holt is not running up north, but in Fredericton).
• Greens have 28 candidates selected (25 listed on Wikipedia) and do not provide a calendar of upcoming nominations. All 3 incumbents renominated.
• Alliance has only two nominees and does not provide upcoming nominations, either. Interestingly, party leader DeSaulniers has not been nominated yet. A quick look at their website shows a pivot to the left. Odd cycle to do that in, with two more viable options on the ballot.
• The NDP also have two nominees and no public calendar. Their leader White is running against Higgs, for some reason. Their website has not been updated since March 2022, demanding stronger mask mandates.

I know the election is ~5 months out but the PA and NDP seem totally moribund. I doubt they come close to fielding full slates. Maybe the NDP benefits from a dead cat bounce and beats its 2022 numbers, but the PA is guaranteed to slide back from 9% (deceptively low number, since they didn't run in any French seats last time). Trying to picture the median PA voter with Higgs absorbing their caucus and shifting right, and it's kind of hard. The PA was basically a Kris Austin vehicle and without him I don't think they stay around long.

I've found it a little weird how the federal NDP have been content to let their provincial branch in NB melt away into nothing, when their NS branch got 21% and 6 seats in an acceptable 2021 performance. Did the Greens just eat their lunch with progressive voters and partisans that extensively?

Obviously none of the three leading parties have these chronic issues, but they each have problems. Greens seem stuck at three MLAs and Coon is getting long in the tooth. They haven't made their desired North Shore and rural Anglo inroads (I'm extremely sceptical they could achieve the latter). Liberals have to claw their way from 3rd and sometimes even 4th place in urban Anglo ridings to overcome their horrible vote distribution. PCs functionally don't exist anywhere French except for relict populations in Madawaska, so they need to basically run the table in swingy-ish urban Anglo ridings to keep power.

[adamuptownsj]

Bruce Fitch considering a CPC federal candidacy, per the TJ. Not sure where he'd run since Rob Moore almost certainly isn't retiring. Moncton-Dieppe is most likely, but it would be a tough lift for a Higgs minister and carpetbagging to Fredericton-Oromocto was ruled out. I can't imagine he'd run against any CPC incumbents or try Saint John-Kennebecasis. I presume he's not foolish enough to try for Beausejour.

On that subject, very little noise from CPC or Libs about Saint John-Kennebecasis candidates.

[MonctonRad]

Fitch is popular, and, would be the toughest challenger that Pettipas-Taylor has ever had.

Moncton-Dieppe can be a swing riding given the proper circumstances. Trudeau is so unpopular right now that the riding could be up for grabs.

[Clamdigger]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Fitch is popular, and, would be the toughest challenger that Pettipas-Taylor has ever had.

Moncton-Dieppe can be a swing riding given the proper circumstances. Trudeau is so unpopular right now that the riding could be up for grabs.

I would not rule out Daniel Allain running for the Conservatives federally in Moncton-Dieppe. He has been very active of late on social media, and has been attending numerous events around the area.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by Clamdigger

I would not rule out Daniel Allain running for the Conservatives federally in Moncton-Dieppe. He has been very active of late on social media, and has been attending numerous events around the area.

I agree that's certainly a possibility. Although, I wonder if he also isn't thinking about being the next provincial PC leader. We've had a fair string of one term premiers so three years or so in opposition as the new leader if Higgs goes down and who knows.....

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I agree that's certainly a possibility. Although, I wonder if he also isn't thinking about being the next provincial PC leader. We've had a fair string of one term premiers so three years or so in opposition as the new leader if Higgs goes down and who knows.....

I think Allain has his eye on the Premiership.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I think Allain has his eye on the Premiership.

Higgs may well go sooner rather than later even if he ends up with a minority or a hung legislature. Last 338Canada prediction in March was PC 24 Lib 22 Green 3.