The Brightline Thread

[ardecila]

^ The FEC ends in Jacksonville, how do you suggest they continue further north?

Savannah's a tiny city with less than 400k metro population, doesn't even crack the top 100 cities in the US. Not worth the multi-billion expense of building a rail corridor up I-95, or double-tracking CSX's line. It is a tourist destination but only a fraction of Orlando or Tampa/St Pete.

[Busy Bee]

Creating an east coast high speed corridor from Boston to Miami should have been a national priority years ago.

Boston-Providence-New Haven-NYC-Phila-Baltimore-Washington-Richmond(w/hsr Norfolk link)-Raleigh/Durham(w/hsr Charlotte & Atlanta link)-Charleston-Savannah-Jacksonville-Miami

You can't tell me this wouldn't be a success with 200 mph trains.

[electricron]

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

Creating an east coast high speed corridor from Boston to Miami should have been a national priority years ago.

Boston-Providence-New Haven-NYC-Phila-Baltimore-Washington-Richmond(w/hsr Norfolk link)-Raleigh/Durham(w/hsr Charlotte & Atlanta link)-Charleston-Savannah-Jacksonville-Miami

You can't tell me this wouldn't be a success with 200 mph trains.

I disagree mainly because the distances are too far apart in the south.

The NEC is a HSR corridor, maybe not state of the art anymore but nothing in this world remains state of the art long. My point is that at one time it was - and a governmental agency didn't build it.

Take the distance Boston to Providence (43 miles), Providence to New Haven (113 miles), NYC to New Haven (72 miles) DC to Baltimore (40 miles), Baltimore to Wilmington (69 miles), Wilmington to Philadelphia (25 miles), Philadelphia to NYC (91 miles) then compare that to the distances Jacksonville to Savanah (107 miles), Savanah to Charleston (101 miles) Charleston to Florence (95 miles), Florence to Raleigh (102 miles) Richmond to Raleigh (195 miles) and DC to Richmond (109 miles). Can you you see that the differences are more than twice as far? Which means the density is half as much.

The entire NEC from Boston to DC is 457 miles in length with 26 stations, averaging a station every 17.5 miles. DC to Miami is 1164 miles in length with 46 existing stations (along the route via Charleston and skipping Tampa) averaging a station every 25 miles. Just about every station on the NEC involves a large city, not every one south of DC does, many are at small cities or large towns.

Add the 457 miles of the NEC to the 1184 miles south of DC you'll have 1641 miles. No where in the world do they run HSR trains that far without requiring passengers to transfer trains. CHSR is going to take decades, if not scores, to implement a state of the art HSR train service, can you imagine how much longer it will take to do so over twice as many miles and over 13 different states?

Please don't confuse money thrown at highways with money to be thrown at railways. The Interstate Highway system has a dedicated tax program to fund it, there is no dedicated tax program to fund railways. The Interstate Highway system was built to support the military move supplies from coast to coast as a secondary purpose. Name one army or navy in the world with trains in their inventory? Name one army or navy in the world without trucks? Let that sink in just a little bit! Eisenhower wasn't an artillery, calvary, or infantry field commander, almost his entire military experience was in the supply corps, which moved most of the supplies on the ground in trucks. So of course he wanted modern highways implemented nationally to match what he saw as state of the art in Europe.

Just to put some perspective, using just the US Army alone, and using Wiki as the source of data:
Battle Tanks 5.848 in service, another 3,000 stored
Infantry Fighting Vehicles 6,724
Armored Personnel Carriers 12,709
Armored Combat Support Vehicles 653
Mine Protected Vehicles 25,939
Light Armored Vehicles 260,000
Self Propelled Artillery 2,341
Anti Aircraft 1,024
Trucks 132,500
Plus Light Utility Vehicles, Miscellaneous, and Experemental Vehicles not numbered by Wiki.
Number of trains -0-

[ardecila]

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

Creating an east coast high speed corridor from Boston to Miami should have been a national priority years ago.

Boston-Providence-New Haven-NYC-Phila-Baltimore-Washington-Richmond(w/hsr Norfolk link)-Raleigh/Durham(w/hsr Charlotte & Atlanta link)-Charleston-Savannah-Jacksonville-Miami

You can't tell me this wouldn't be a success with 200 mph trains.

Disagree, Charlotte and Atlanta should be on the mainline rather than on spurs. Charleston and Savannah just aren't worth the expense, they're the cities that should be on spurs if anything. Routing through the Piedmont adds about 150mi to the overall corridor but probably improves ridership by a far greater percentage, adding two major metros with over 8M population combined. The coastal corridor is technically shorter but has challenging geography with lots of wide rivers and wetlands, and a whole lot of nothing between Raleigh and Charleston and again between Savannah and Jacksonville.

Norfolk vs. Richmond is probably a toss up, Norfolk has a little bit more metro population but poses engineering challenges and doesn't have a large historic walkable core.

That being said, even with 220mph trains and extensive new construction, the average speed will still be closer to 120mph in a best case scenario, so you'd still have a 15 hour trip Boston to Miami, or a 12 hour trip going DC to Miami. I think we're better off focusing on regional HSR connections than trying to build cross-country main lines, even on the East Coast there's still a lot of lightly populated areas.

[NikolasM]

That would be another mainline. NYC to New Orleans. Atlanta and Charlotte would be on that one.

https://www.google.com/maps/@37.1561...ovwve7Bw?hl=en

[Busy Bee]

^Correct. Some trains from the north would head to Charlotte and Atlanta, others down the coast to Savannah, Jacksonville and Miami. Not difficult to imagine.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by ardecila

Disagree, Charlotte and Atlanta should be on the mainline rather than on spurs. Charleston and Savannah just aren't worth the expense, they're the cities that should be on spurs if anything. Routing through the Piedmont adds about 150mi to the overall corridor but probably improves ridership by a far greater percentage, adding two major metros with over 8M population combined. The coastal corridor is technically shorter but has challenging geography with lots of wide rivers and wetlands, and a whole lot of nothing between Raleigh and Charleston and again between Savannah and Jacksonville.

Norfolk vs. Richmond is probably a toss up, Norfolk has a little bit more metro population but poses engineering challenges and doesn't have a large historic walkable core.

That being said, even with 220mph trains and extensive new construction, the average speed will still be closer to 120mph in a best case scenario, so you'd still have a 15 hour trip Boston to Miami, or a 12 hour trip going DC to Miami. I think we're better off focusing on regional HSR connections than trying to build cross-country main lines, even on the East Coast there's still a lot of lightly populated areas.

Very much a side note but Norfolk vs Richmond's urban core is pretty dead-on even. I'll give Richmond a slight edge, but not enough to note.

[electricron]

Interesting information from a Wiki article..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail
"According to Peter Jorritsma, the rail market share s, as compared to planes, can be computed approximately as a function of the travelling time in minutes t by the formula
s={1 \over 0.031\times 1.016^{t}+1}
According to this formula, a journey time of three hours yields 65% market share. However, market shares are also influenced by ticket prices.
In another study conducted about Japan's High-speed rail service, they found a "4-hour wall" in High-speed rail's market share, which if the high speed rail journey time exceeded 4 hours, then people would likely choose planes over high-speed rail. For instance, from Tokyo to Osaka where high-speed rail take 2h22m, high-speed rail have 85% market share whereas planes have 15%. From Tokyo to Hiroshima which high-speed rail take 3h44m, high-speed rail have 67% market share whereas planes have 33%. The situation is the reverse on the Tokyo to Fukuoka route where high-speed rail takes 4h47m and rail only has 10% market share and planes 90%."

The "4 hour wall" shouldn't be ignored. There's no way HSR train running over 4 hours will come close to breaking even. An east coast over 1,000 mile long HSR line will never ever be less than 4 hours. Additionally, a 4 hour train in one direction should allow the same driver and crew man the return trip of 4 hours. There's a reason why Amtrak frequently switches train crews in New York City for its' NEC trains.

[Busy Bee]

I think everyone is greatly underestimating the potential for leisure travelers here. A true high speed railway following the I-95 corridor could carry a huge number of daytrippers, weekenders and vacationers from points north that would otherwise not make the trip at all if the choices are driving or dealing with flying. If people could get from Washington to the SC lowcountry or Savannah beaches in about 2 hours for a weekend, that would be a huge economic impact.

[electricron]

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

I think everyone is greatly underestimating the potential for leisure travelers here. A true high speed railway following the I-95 corridor could carry a huge number of daytrippers, weekenders and vacationers from points north that would otherwise not make the trip at all if the choices are driving or dealing with flying. If people could get from Washington to the SC lowcountry or Savannah beaches in about 2 hours for a weekend, that would be a huge economic impact.

Washington DC to Savanah is 604 rail miles, to travel that distance in 2 hours the train would have to average 302 mph. Being slightly more realistic, to travel that distance in 4 hours, that magical "wall" Japan has discovered where people actually ride trains in huge numbers, the train would have to average 151 mph. Acela on the NEC can't even average those speeds.

And that's the shorter distance of DC to Savanah, not NYC to Orlando nor the even longer Boston to Miami.

I repeat, that 4 hour "wall" is real!

The problem with relying upon leisure travelers to make a HSR train profitable, or even close to being profitable, is that leisure travelers don't travel on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays in huge numbers. They travel on Fridays, Saturdays, Sundays, and Mondays.

[lrt's friend]

You get ridership on a long HSR route from paired major cities all along the route. If two or more major cities are within the 4 hour wall, that is where the bulk of the ridership will come from. So a 1000 route will succeed if there are pairs of cities all along the route that meet that 4 hour criteria.

[electricron]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

You get ridership on a long HSR route from paired major cities all along the route. If two or more major cities are within the 4 hour wall, that is where the bulk of the ridership will come from. So a 1000 route will succeed if there are pairs of cities all along the route that meet that 4 hour criteria.

Very, very true! All that's left is some major populations in those paired cities.
Looking at CSA statistics:
Boston 8,099,575
New York City 23,689,255
Philadelphia - Camden 6,096,120
Baltimore - DC 9,764,315
Richmond 1,263,617
Raleigh- Durham 2,037,430
Charleston 744,526
Savannah 544,092
Jacksonville 1,631,488
Orlando 3,129,308
Miami 6,723,472

There's a huge gap in city pairs population required to support a HSR line between DC and Orlando - and I believe including Orlando might be a mistake. Never-the-less, HSR trains will only be worthwhile if they are nearly full. I do not see DC to Orlando city pairs supporting HSR trains every hour much less every half hour like Acela on the NEC. It's 899 rail miles between DC and Orlando, a train averaging 125 mph will require more than 7 hours to travel - remember that 4 hour "wall" discovered in Japan - where many more passengers will chose to ride a train.....

It's not like there aren't cities along the way, or that the cities that do exist are twice as far apart as they are on the NEC, it's that these cities south of DC and north of Florida are too small for frequent train services HSR requires.

[Rational Plan3]

Originally Posted by electricron

Very, very true! All that's left is some major populations in those paired cities.
Looking at CSA statistics:
Boston 8,099,575
New York City 23,689,255
Philadelphia - Camden 6,096,120
Baltimore - DC 9,764,315
Richmond 1,263,617
Raleigh- Durham 2,037,430
Charleston 744,526
Savannah 544,092
Jacksonville 1,631,488
Orlando 3,129,308
Miami 6,723,472

There's a huge gap in city pairs population required to support a HSR line between DC and Orlando - and I believe including Orlando might be a mistake. Never-the-less, HSR trains will only be worthwhile if they are nearly full. I do not see DC to Orlando city pairs supporting HSR trains every hour much less every half hour like Acela on the NEC. It's 899 rail miles between DC and Orlando, a train averaging 125 mph will require more than 7 hours to travel - remember that 4 hour "wall" discovered in Japan - where many more passengers will chose to ride a train.....

It's not like there aren't cities along the way, or that the cities that do exist are twice as far apart as they are on the NEC, it's that these cities south of DC and north of Florida are too small for frequent train services HSR requires.

I suspect you could stretch a line from DC to Raleigh Durham, but no further.

What matters in the SE is what city pairs to Atlanta could be supported.

[electricron]

Originally Posted by Rational Plan3

I suspect you could stretch a line from DC to Raleigh Durham, but no further.

What matters in the SE is what city pairs to Atlanta could be supported.

Atlanta to Charolette is brought up frequently here, here’s how they stack up population (CSA) wise.
Atlanta 6,162,195
Charolette 2,632,249
It’s 258 rail miles between them, a HSR train averaging 125 mph will take around two hours. How many trains Charolette could support today would be my major difficulty, would it be enough trains to make a dedicated HSR line worthwhile? Could North and South Carolinia statehouses join Georgia to subsidize this HSR line?

[ardecila]

Originally Posted by electricron

Atlanta to Charolette is brought up frequently here, here’s how they stack up population (CSA) wise.
Atlanta 6,162,195
Charolette 2,632,249
It’s 258 rail miles between them, a HSR train averaging 125 mph will take around two hours. How many trains Charolette could support today would be my major difficulty, would it be enough trains to make a dedicated HSR line worthwhile? Could North and South Carolinia statehouses join Georgia to subsidize this HSR line?

It might be difficult politically if someone tried it today but you can bet leaders in Southern states are looking closely at All Aboard Florida and Texas Central, which would be a private-sector way to accomplish high-speed (or at least medium-speed) rail service without saddling taxpayers.

[ardecila]

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

^Correct. Some trains from the north would head to Charlotte and Atlanta, others down the coast to Savannah, Jacksonville and Miami. Not difficult to imagine.

I don't think the coastal corridor has enough population. If you're spending billions to build a true 220mph mainline through the South east of the Appalachians, it should go through the biggest cities (i.e. Atlanta and Charlotte). You've also got Athens, Greensboro and Spartanburg along the way which have major industries or universities.

The Crescent Corridor to New Orleans should not be built out at 220mph. What a waste that would be. The cities along the route are not major business or tourism destinations, with the exception of New Orleans... but even then I'm not sure if the demand is there, building a new 220mph mainline into that city would cost multiple billions on its own. It would be better to just double-track the existing freight corridors and do 150mph service as Illinois is installing on the Chi-StL corridor right now. That would only be a few billion per corridor which is reasonable enough to sell as a national network. With a proper PTC installation those upgraded lines could use lightweight DMU trains for better performance.

[electricron]

Originally Posted by ardecila

I don't think the coastal corridor has enough population. If you're spending billions to build a true 220mph mainline through the South east of the Appalachians, it should go through the biggest cities (i.e. Atlanta and Charlotte). You've also got Athens, Greensboro and Spartanburg along the way which have major industries or universities.

The Crescent Corridor to New Orleans should not be built out at 220mph. What a waste that would be. The cities along the route are not major business or tourism destinations, with the exception of New Orleans... but even then I'm not sure if the demand is there, building a new 220mph mainline into that city would cost multiple billions on its own. It would be better to just double-track the existing freight corridors and do 150mph service as Illinois is installing on the Chi-StL corridor right now. That would only be a few billion per corridor which is reasonable enough to sell as a national network. With a proper PTC installation those upgraded lines could use lightweight DMU trains for better performance.

The Chicago to St.Louis corridor wasn't upgrade to 150 mph, it's being upgraded to 110 mph. So far, few trains have reached those speeds after more than a decade of on and off construction by the UPRR. Maybe in another decade Illini will be able to ride trains for most of that distance at 110 mph, and maybe not. It sure is taking way too much time to implement higher speed trains service.

[ardecila]

Originally Posted by electricron

The Chicago to St.Louis corridor wasn't upgrade to 150 mph, it's being upgraded to 110 mph. So far, few trains have reached those speeds after more than a decade of on and off construction by the UPRR. Maybe in another decade Illini will be able to ride trains for most of that distance at 110 mph, and maybe not. It sure is taking way too much time to implement higher speed trains service.

The track and structure improvements funded by Obama's HSIPR are substantially complete, and all station renovation or replacements are finished as well. The line is physically capable of 110mph speeds with new track, roadbed and structures, plus fencing and crossing gates along virtually the entire length. Work is ongoing to grade-separate and consolidate two train lines through downtown Springfield, but that's a separate project. Long term plans include a full double track, as well as new routings through Chicagoland and St Louis Metro East, but those also are separate projects with no funding.

Increased speeds are just waiting on testing of the PTC system. The deadline for that keeps slipping. Apparently tracking the location and speed of a few trains is harder than sending a man to the moon or putting a powerful computer in every pocket.

But somehow AAF completed their PTC system while following all FRA regulations, so it's not impossible. How hard can it be, you're literally just comparing GPS locations to a model stringline chart and then issuing directions to the train's control system to speed up or slow down. In theory it doesn't even need any physical infrastructure like trackside signals.

[eleven=11]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tampa_Union_Station
this is location of tampa brightline station near/next to new 800 million Rays stadium

[bobdreamz]

By TNM Staff on July 12, 2018

Demand for Brightline tickets has been growing since service started, and the company is responding with a big increase in service.

In early August, the number of roundtrip trains from Miami to West Palm Beach will increase nearly 50 percent. There are currently 11 daily roundtrips, which will increase to 16.

A spokesperson told the SFBJ that demand has been “phenomenal.”

With the increase, there will be a train leaving in each direction nearly every hour, from early morning to late night. The first train departs West Palm Beach at 5:30am, and the last train leaves Miami at 11:10pm.

Prices have already increased, and a roundtrip between Miami and West Palm Beach in first class can now cost as much as $70. A one way ticket from Miami to West Palm Beach in the premium Select class ranges from $30 to $35 depending on the time. A basic one-way ticket in Smart class starts at $20 on weekdays.

Tickets for the new August timings are already on sale.

https://www.thenextmiami.com/to-meet...t-more-trains/