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  #221  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2016, 4:37 PM
Novacek Novacek is offline
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From the map in that story, I'm really surprised by the numbers for the Domain census tract. It shows growth, but only 400 people over 5 years. It makes me question their process.

Same thing with downtown losing population.
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  #222  
Old Posted Dec 11, 2016, 3:17 AM
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According to the dataset here, Travis county's 2015 projected population is 1,176,558.

According to the article it's 1,121,645.

I dunno what dataset they're using.
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  #223  
Old Posted Dec 11, 2016, 5:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Novacek View Post
The latest ACS numbers are out.

ABJ has a story, but they seem to be miscalculating something. There's no way Charlotte grew 38% (the other Census population estimates have them at 9%).

http://www.bizjournals.com/austin/ne...th-in-the.html


I think they must not be accounting for additional counties added to the metro.
That data is flawed because Charlotte had had five counties added (and one dropped) from the MSA in 2013. Counting that 465K population addition to the MSA as growth makes the article BS.

Link: http://plancharlotte.org/story/bound...tro-population
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  #224  
Old Posted Dec 11, 2016, 8:37 AM
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Plus 2015 metro census data has been out since March... not like its new info. We're only months away from the 2016 release and bizjournals is still reporting the 2015 numbers like its new info.

FYI it hasnt been new info since March.
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  #225  
Old Posted Dec 11, 2016, 8:58 AM
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Here's the real list of the fastest growing large cities (1,000,000+ MSA population) between 2010 and 2015 that I put together last March after the census release. The percentage increase between #1 Austin and #2 Raleigh is greater than that of #2 Raleigh and #10 Phoenix. Charlotte is #9.

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  #226  
Old Posted Dec 11, 2016, 7:00 PM
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Lightbulb

Quote:
Originally Posted by The ATX View Post
Here's the real list of the fastest growing large cities (1,000,000+ MSA population) between 2010 and 2015 that I put together last March after the census release. The percentage increase between #1 Austin and #2 Raleigh is greater than that of #2 Raleigh and #10 Phoenix. Charlotte is #9.

Yes, a much large increase percentage wise. But not by number.
Here's the real difference on the list you posted.
1) Austin 284,571
2) Raleigh 143,078
3) Houston 736,531
4) Orlando 252,727
5) San Antonio 241,567
6) Denver 270,848
7) Dallas 676,582
8) Nashville 159,455
9) Charlotte 209,351
10) Phoenix 381,644
Note: Cities 3, 7, & 10 actually saw higher increases.
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  #227  
Old Posted Dec 12, 2016, 3:04 PM
Novacek Novacek is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by N90 View Post
Plus 2015 metro census data has been out since March... not like its new info. We're only months away from the 2016 release and bizjournals is still reporting the 2015 numbers like its new info.

FYI it hasnt been new info since March.
This is new data. It's the release of the ACS.

It's just that BJ is using it the wrong way, the way the census explicitly warns against.

"Although the American Community Survey (ACS) produces population, demographic and housing unit estimates, it is the Census Bureau's Population Estimates Program that produces and disseminates the official estimates of the population for the nation, states, counties, cities and towns and estimates of housing units for states and counties."


This new data will be useful for other purposes. It will be interesting to see the commuting flow numbers.
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  #228  
Old Posted Dec 12, 2016, 6:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Novacek View Post
This is new data. It's the release of the ACS.

It's just that BJ is using it the wrong way, the way the census explicitly warns against.

"Although the American Community Survey (ACS) produces population, demographic and housing unit estimates, it is the Census Bureau's Population Estimates Program that produces and disseminates the official estimates of the population for the nation, states, counties, cities and towns and estimates of housing units for states and counties."


This new data will be useful for other purposes. It will be interesting to see the commuting flow numbers.
Yeah, the ACS is good at finding out what the internal distribution of characteristics is within the sum of total persons, but NOT at what the total sum of persons in the absolute sense.
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  #229  
Old Posted Jan 13, 2017, 6:45 PM
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Another population milestone looms for Austin, other big U.S. cities in '17

G. Scott Thomas and Will Anderson
Austin Business Journal


Austin is expected to hit another major population milestone in a matter of months.

The number of people living in the metro area will cross 2.1 million on March 20, according to estimates by Buffalo Business First, an affiliated publication of Austin Business Journal.

http://www.bizjournals.com/austin/ne...or-austin.html
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  #230  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2017, 2:22 PM
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The next set of census estimates is coming out this Thursday (the 23rd).

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pres...7/cb17-35.html
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  #231  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2017, 12:58 AM
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Nice, thanks Novacek.
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  #232  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2017, 3:05 AM
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The embargoed census results are released 10:00 AM Tuesday morning. That means some of the results could leak online late that morning or afternoon. Although any leaks won't be on major news sites due to the potential wrath of the Census Bureau.
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  #233  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2017, 5:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Austin1971 View Post
G. Scott Thomas and Will Anderson
Austin Business Journal


Austin is expected to hit another major population milestone in a matter of months.

The number of people living in the metro area will cross 2.1 million on March 20, according to estimates by Buffalo Business First, an affiliated publication of Austin Business Journal.

http://www.bizjournals.com/austin/ne...or-austin.html

My system predicted that the Austin Metro passed that milestone (2.1 million) on Thursday, December 15, 2016. Austin's metro should have ~2.12 - 2.13 million by July 1, 2017.

NOTE: Estimates being released by the Census Bureau will be based on an federal population estimate as of July 1, 2016.
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AUSTIN (City): 974,447 +1.30% - '20-'22 | AUSTIN MSA (5 counties): 2,421,115 +6.03% - '20-'22
SAN ANTONIO (City): 1,472,909 +2.69% - '20-'22 | SAN ANTONIO MSA (8 counties): 2,655,342 +3.80% - '20-'22
AUS-SAT REGION (MSAs/13 counties): 5,076,457 +4.85% - '20-'22 | *SRC: US Census*
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  #234  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2017, 2:34 AM
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Austin's Wikipedia page has been updated with the 2016 Metro population: 2,064,149. I suspect that is the correct Census estimate that will be publicly released shortly. That would probably move Austin ahead of Columbus and Cleveland and real close to Kansas City.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austin,_Texas
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  #235  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2017, 3:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The ATX View Post
Austin's Wikipedia page has been updated with the 2016 Metro population: 2,064,149. I suspect that is the correct Census estimate that will be publicly released shortly. That would probably move Austin ahead of Columbus and Cleveland and real close to Kansas City.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austin,_Texas
Using the population estimates from here, that would be a larger numerical gain (+63,289) than any year over year increase since 2010 (our largest being from 2013 to 2014, at +59,026).

It's also a higher rate of growth +3.16% than any previous year (the next highest also being 2013 to 2014 at 3.13%).

However, given the size of the residuals in the .csv from the link to which I linked above in each year's numerical growth, we can use these to gauge how uncertain their estimates are, this suggests that the growth isn't statistically distinguishable growth from any of the previous few years (even if the particular reported mean estimate is slightly larger).
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  #236  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2017, 4:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The ATX View Post
Austin's Wikipedia page has been updated with the 2016 Metro population: 2,064,149. I suspect that is the correct Census estimate that will be publicly released shortly. That would probably move Austin ahead of Columbus and Cleveland and real close to Kansas City.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austin,_Texas
It would be nice to jump a couple Ohio cities.
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  #237  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2017, 4:14 AM
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Hays Co. was the third fastest growing county in the country last year. That's an impressive growth rate considering that it's much larger than the other counties in the top 10.


http://www.deseretnews.com/article/8...nty-in-US.html
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  #238  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2017, 4:24 AM
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Metro population can be found through this link. Austin's is lower than the Wiki number. But it did manage to pass Columbus and Cleveland.

http://www.bizjournals.com/buffalo/n...opulation.html
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  #239  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2017, 4:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The ATX View Post
Hays Co. was the third fastest growing county in the country last year. That's an impressive growth rate considering that it's much larger than the other counties in the top 10.


http://www.deseretnews.com/article/8...nty-in-US.html
Not only are 3 of the top 6 in Texas, they are all right next to each other between Austin and San Antonio.
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  #240  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2017, 5:05 AM
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If the raw per week totals hold steady for a couple years, there would be a little shakeup on the list of MSA around us.

2016
28. Cincinnati 2,165,139
29. Las Vegas 2,155,664
30. Kansas City 2,104,509
31. Austin 2,056,405
32. Cleveland 2,055,612

2018
28. Las Vegas 2,220,872
29. Cincinnati 2,181,259
30. Austin 2,164,877
31. Kansas City 2,134,877
32. Columbus 2,086,032
33. Cleveland 2,048,748


If it held steady till 2020, Austin would jump Cincy into 29th place and only be ~12,700 behind Las Vegas.
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