US city populations - which happens first?

[skyscraperpage17]

Originally Posted by ThePhun1

Yawn, I'm African-American. So much for me being bigoted toward Detroit, Oakland and their social issues.

I'm black and from Detroit. Unless Amazon HQ2 happens, there's no chance in hell of me moving back to Michigan in general.

[mthd]

this could happen much faster, or much slower, but 15 years is a reasonable estimate. if you took the growth rate of just the last 10 years (faster than "typical," i'd say) it would only take 11.5 years.

[mhays]

I'd be surprised. SF's growth has included development of all-new waterfront districts that will fill up at some point. It's also an extremely high level (anecdotally) of roommates based on a supercharged tech economy. With substantial upzoning it would have better odds. And of course a tech bust would get in the way.

Seattle has a similar situation in theory, but a comparatively light version of it...we upzone more readily, and we have a lot more excess space that's already upzoned. We also don't have referenda on projects. But even so, land prices for developable sites have already entered the stratosphere in their pricing.

[initiald]

Extrapolating trends, Charlotte won't hit 1.2 million for around 19 years. The city limits aren't all that big and more growth is happening in the county, just outside the city limits in many cases. The county is already over 1 million, as is Wake county (Raleigh's county). So if it were to pull a Jacksonville and merge city and county (it's been discussed a few times but always tabled) it'd hit that number in just a handful years.

[north 42]

Originally Posted by ThePhun1

Yawn, I'm African-American. So much for me being bigoted toward Detroit, Oakland and their social issues.

Lol Detroit may have some major problems, but it’s not all ghetto,and I think you would really be impressed if you ever come here!

[mthd]

Originally Posted by mhays

I'd be surprised. SF's growth has included development of all-new waterfront districts that will fill up at some point. It's also an extremely high level (anecdotally) of roommates based on a supercharged tech economy. With substantial upzoning it would have better odds. And of course a tech bust would get in the way.

Seattle has a similar situation in theory, but a comparatively light version of it...we upzone more readily, and we have a lot more excess space that's already upzoned. We also don't have referenda on projects. But even so, land prices for developable sites have already entered the stratosphere in their pricing.

actually, virtually none of those tens of thousands of units have been built yet. nothing at treasure island, nothing at parkmerced, nothing at india basin, nothing at mission rock, and just a few at candlestick. the pipeline has more entitled but not yet built units that at any point in modern times...

[JManc]

SF at a million? Anyone watch San Andreas? That place is not long for this world.

[Easy]

Originally Posted by ThePhun1

It could. I perceive Detroit as ghetto, impoverished and run down but maybe it's not that bad given that I've never been there. But it is a major reason I'd never consider moving there unless it was for work or school.

So outside perception does matter, fair or not.

I get what you’re saying. Oakland was in decline for years. Like many Bay Area cities it’s been undergoing a renaissance because the Bay Area economy is so strong. It’s not a complicated concept.

[COtoOC]

Originally Posted by BG918

Denver was estimated at ~682,000 in 2015. There is a good amount of densification happening but I don’t think the current zoning will allow a major increase for awhile. Denver’s population has already shown signs of a plateau as the greenfield area of the city in Stapleton and Green Valley Ranch nears total build out in the next 5 years. Unless there is a major zoning change I don’t see 900k happening for a long time.

I've read that Denver is adding around 15K per year, which would mean 900K in about 14 years, at current growth levels.

Stapleton is getting close to build out, but the infill projects keep on going up. Apartment building is slowing, but condos may be taking off. Time will tell.

[toddguy]

It will be Washington (barring any annexations/etc.)

The city was at 601,000 in 2010 and is estimated at 693,000 for 2017. If that keeps up it will be at 800,000 by 2025 or 2026-only seven or eight years.

I don't see any of the other cities hitting their goals sooner than seven or eight years.