Quote:
Originally Posted by Octavian
Denver Post editorial:
"Preliminary findings put costs of a bus rapid-transit system at up to $300 million to serve up to 27,000 people daily by 2035.
Meanwhile, just extending the Northwest Rail Line from its current, funded destination of Westminster 11 miles to Broomfield would cost as much as $681 million, according to the study. But that extension would only serve some 3,400 more people."
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Sometimes, people miss the forest looking at specific trees.
Take that projected 27,000 ridership for rapid bus. Splt that number in half to 13,500 to estimate those using the bus in the mornings, and then the same in the afternoon. Since a 40-foot coach is the common type bus used in larger system, and usually holds about 42 ambulatory passengers when two wheelchair tiedowns are provided. Some math:
13,500 passengers / 42 passengers/bus = 321.4 buses.
Then let's assume rush hour lasts 3 hours, from 6 am to 9 am, or 4 pm to 7 pm, that's 180 minutes per rush hour. some more math:
321.4 buses / 180 minutes = 1.78 buses per minute, or a bus every 33.7 seconds on US 36.
Can any bus stop, unload, and load new passengers at a bus stop within 34 seconds?
At some point, running buses isn't feasible.
Another point I wish to point out is that usually trains attract more passengers than buses. The only way buses could attract more riders is with increased frequencies. A bus every 34 seconds is very frequent, but it needs to be that frequent to carry all those passengers. How frequent would a train have to run to carry the same number of passengers (assuming it does attract the same amount)? That of course depends upon the length of the train, and the capacity of each rail car. Assuming using high floor cars to match the high level platforms, here's a list of a few commuter configured rail cars available:
Nippon Sharyo's Highliner = 150 , Bombardier's Multilevel = 127 , Nippon Sharyo's single level = 110
Let's assume a Highliner was chosen. Some math:
13,500 passengers / 150 passengers/car = 90 cars.
Therefore, with a ten cars per train we'll need just 9 trains over 180 minutes, or a train every 20 minutes.
If we dropped that to five cars per train we'll need 18 trains over 180 minutes, or a train every 10 minutes.
Are you getting the point I'm trying to make?
Being realistic, I assumed 100% full buses and railcars, which will not happen in real life. You're going to need more buses and railcars because some will arrive in Denver just 75% full. I also suggest that few passengers forced to stand on a bus repeatedly for such a long trip between Boulder and Denver will be loyal and true, they will stop riding. I also realize not everyone rides public transit between 6 and 9 am, and 4 to 7 pm, and that they all will be traveling in the same direction, never-the-less you're going to need far more buses than railcars to handle the projected demand, maybe too much.....