Calgary Federal Politics

[suburbia]

With a Federal by-election upcoming soon for Calgary Centre, I thought it a good time to start a Calgary Federal Politics thread. Wondering what people think about the possibility of a non-Conservative winning Calgary Centre, given more centrist trends over the last few years? Remember that the Federal Conservatives were more aligned with the Wildrose, as opposed to the provincial Progressive Conservatives.

Anyone have a list of those looking for a nomination within their own parties, as well as any thoughts on the above train of thought?

[artvandelay]

Unless the Tories pick some far-right nutcase, I can't see them losing this riding.

[lubicon]

Saw the new riding boundaries and there are going to be some pretty significant changes to some of them. Looks like I will rid myself of that idiot Rob Anders, depending on which of the new riding's he chooses to run in. I also like the new names for the ridings.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by artvandelay

Unless the Tories pick some far-right nutcase, I can't see them losing this riding.

It is a good point. Even with taking the city for granted and having people like Rob Anders (who contributes perhaps four sentences per year to the parliament in between naps) Federally Calgarians do seem to continue to vote a certain way, likely because they did the same the last time.

Thinking about the municipal and provincial races, I think the only way a non-conservative can have a crack would be if they are younger, engaging and can bring out the energy that we saw with the Nenshi campaign. I think people really do appreciate a politician who, if and when possible, may actually show up at your house for coffee.

One thing is clear, and it was particularly the case in the provincial elections. What the party names mean historically is quite different from what they represent now. Provincial Wildrose is federally reform / conservative. Provincial Progressive conservatives is federally, and it sounds odd but is the truth, Liberal.

[Rusty van Reddick]

Originally Posted by artvandelay

Unless the Tories pick some far-right nutcase, I can't see them losing this riding.

Move is underway to run one opposition candidate. Don't count those chickens just yet. The dissatisfaction with the outrageous, rank criminality and corruption of the CPC (I can't call them "Tories" when they've raped everything the PC party represented) is going to boil over- yes, even here.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by Rusty van Reddick

Move is underway to run one opposition candidate. Don't count those chickens just yet. The dissatisfaction with the outrageous, rank criminality and corruption of the CPC (I can't call them "Tories" when they've raped everything the PC party represented) is going to boil over- yes, even here.

So which party will the one opposition candidate be representing, or is this really preliminary and without any real chance of panning out in this way?

[andasen]

Originally Posted by lubicon

Saw the new riding boundaries and there are going to be some pretty significant changes to some of them. Looks like I will rid myself of that idiot Rob Anders, depending on which of the new riding's he chooses to run in. I also like the new names for the ridings.

Just in case anyone else wanted to see them

Map of Proposed ridings as of July 11/12

Did some looking and pondering over the maps, in general I think they did a decent enough job. Kinda concerned about Calgary Mindapore and Calgary Sheppard given A/ they include actively growing areas B/ they (+ Confederation) are the largest by population ridings according to the commission. Seems to me they should be on the low end of the population scale to accomodate near future growth... thoughts?

[Cage]

Originally Posted by Rusty van Reddick

Move is underway to run one opposition candidate. Don't count those chickens just yet. The dissatisfaction with the outrageous, rank criminality and corruption of the CPC (I can't call them "Tories" when they've raped everything the PC party represented) is going to boil over- yes, even here.

The Conservative Candidate has won with over 55% support. In Richardson days he got closer to 60%. I don't see how combining opposition forces would change the result.

Only way to get a non Conservative into Calgary Centre is to get Nenshi to run for office and be a member of the NDP or Liberals.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by Cage

The Conservative Candidate has won with over 55% support. In Richardson days he got closer to 60%. I don't see how combining opposition forces would change the result.

Only way to get a non Conservative into Calgary Centre is to get Nenshi to run for office and be a member of the NDP or Liberals.

By-elections are different, and this is why:

In a normal election, you are also voting for who will be the PM. Let us say that someone wants Stephen Harper for PM and that person lives in Varsity. They vote for Rob Anders, and in this hypothetical case, don't actually like how Rob has represented them over the last many years (this is just hypothetical) but still vote for him because they like Harper. In a by-election, no one is voting for who they'd like to be PM and thus the above doesn't apply. It is thus quite possible that more people might not vote Conservative as in a regular election, precisely because the leadership of the country is not being voted on. The individual's thought process, therefore, may more be focused on the actual candidates.

Lately, the NDP are being just as ideologically driven as the right wing, so I'm curious what happens in the Liberal nomination race. I'm also curious what provincial MLAs have to say (most likely will keep tight lipped, but we can hope) given that the Federal Conservatives really aligned with the Wildrose Alliance during the provincial race.

Calgary-Centre, for the above reasons, might be a very interesting race.

[Rusty van Reddick]

Originally Posted by Cage

The Conservative Candidate has won with over 55% support. In Richardson days he got closer to 60%. I don't see how combining opposition forces would change the result.

By getting people to vote. Calgary voters who wouldn't vote Con are cowed into not voting by the hopelessness of doing so. If we can mobilize the vote we can get an MP who doesn't represent a party rife with corruption, corruption that makes what the Grits fell for look like stealing penny candy.

Times are different now because even people who voted Con realize the mistake they've made in supporting Harper.

[Rusty van Reddick]

Originally Posted by suburbia

So which party will the one opposition candidate be representing, or is this really preliminary and without any real chance of panning out in this way?

Unless you live in Centre I'm not having this discussion with you.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by suburbia

By-elections are different, and this is why:
.....
Calgary-Centre, for the above reasons, might be a very interesting race.

Originally Posted by Rusty van Reddick

By getting people to vote.
......
Times are different now because even people who voted Con realize the mistake they've made in supporting Harper.

I could see you guys have a point in an electoral district that might have some swing mentality or was at least a close race at anypoint in the past 20 years. However in order for your plan to work the following must happen:
- Cons lose thousands of voters to apathy,
- The opposition parties get out their vote by 120% for a single candidate.
- Nothing blows up in opposition party faces (like NDP stance on oilsands through Dutch disease).
- Opposition parties field a platform that appeals to Calgary-Centre residents and does not have any major detractions.
- NDP softens its stance on oilsands development.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by Cage

- Nothing blows up in opposition party faces (like NDP stance on oilsands through Dutch disease).
- NDP softens its stance on oilsands development.

Given the recent NDP rhetoric, I don't thing the NDP could do it. Here's to hopin' they realize that and step away!

[ByeByeBaby]

Originally Posted by Cage

I could see you guys have a point in an electoral district that might have some swing mentality or was at least a close race at anypoint in the past 20 years.

Was the 2000 election more than 20 years ago already? Jeez, I must be getting old.

[Bassic Lab]

Originally Posted by Cage

I could see you guys have a point in an electoral district that might have some swing mentality or was at least a close race at anypoint in the past 20 years. However in order for your plan to work the following must happen:
- Cons lose thousands of voters to apathy,
- The opposition parties get out their vote by 120% for a single candidate.
- Nothing blows up in opposition party faces (like NDP stance on oilsands through Dutch disease).
- Opposition parties field a platform that appeals to Calgary-Centre residents and does not have any major detractions.
- NDP softens its stance on oilsands development.

In the days after the merger the Conservative's were convinced that Paul Martin's Liberals would take Joe Clark's Calgary Centre. Of course that didn't happen; between the sponsorship scandal and the division of the riding, so that it lost Liberal friendly polls north of the river, the seat remained safely Conservative. If the Liberal's hadn't collapsed into third party status last year, I would say that it could become something of a toss up again in an election where the they win a landslide, throw the bums out kind of result. Now the chances of that happening are slim to none so I'd guess it will remain a safe Conservative seat, even when they lose the government. The NDP would have to many problems with some of the demographics; Upper Mount Royal, Elbow Park, Roxboro, Britannia, and Belaire are just not fertile ground.

[suburbia]

The concept of putting forth a single non-con is being reported more broadly, however, it looks like the NDP only like the idea if it is their candidate. I think that is a mistake, as it needs to be someone more centrist and aligned with the provincial PCs.

http://www.660news.com/news/local/ar...-centre-riding

http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/07/13/c...algary-centre/

There are also rumors that the Feds are pushing for a more ultra right winger, perhaps even someone like Ezra. He could be expensive though, given his regular payouts resulting from outright slander.

[Dado]

Originally Posted by Rusty van Reddick

Move is underway to run one opposition candidate. Don't count those chickens just yet. The dissatisfaction with the outrageous, rank criminality and corruption of the CPC (I can't call them "Tories" when they've raped everything the PC party represented) is going to boil over- yes, even here.

Oddly enough, the political party the CPC now most resembles in Canada is the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario. There is but one other party in the entire land that does simplistic sound bite campaigning and take-no-prisoners governing like the CPC, and that is the Ontario PCs. All this hoopla about Reform taking over the PCs is bunk: what happened is that Ontario's Big Blue Machine, i.e. the party of Mike Harris, took over the entire lot of them and imposed their campaigning style and governing style on the new party. Neither the old line PCs nor the Reformers were in any position to argue with the successes of the OPC, but it's not a style of governing that either particularly likes. So it actually doesn't surprise me one bit that in the Reform heartland ("yes, even here") displeasure with the CPC style of governing is threatening to boil over.

Ironically, while this BBM takeover actually worked for the CPC - they finally won Ontario and got a majority, didn't they? - the poor old OPCs have since languished, first under Red Tory Ernie Eves (why have him when you can get the real thing with Dalton, who is also nicer?), then under Reform-minded leader John Tory (can't have an ideologically consistent pol in Ontario) and finally under CPCesque Mike Harris wannabe Tim Hudak (we already have Harper and the old Mike Harris gang in Ottawa).

Really, the PC and Reform wings of the CPC need to stop getting angry at each other and direct their anger at the BBM types who are actually running the show.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by Dado

All this hoopla about Reform taking over the PCs is bunk

Really? The actual evidence suggests otherwise.

The Harper-Wildrose alliance: The elephant in Alberta's conservative room

Just some of the names associated with this Harper-Wildrose alliance range from Tom Flanagan, once the PM's right-hand ideological advisor and now the Wildrose Party's campaign chairman, to a whole raft a smaller fry, among them, in no particular order:
- Vitor Marciano, former federal party chair and Wildrose executive director, now Wildrose candidate in Alberta's so-called Senate election and apparently something like the Wildrose campaign's chief cook and bottle washer.
- Ryan Hastman, federal Conservative candidate in the Edmonton-Strathcona riding last year and now Wildrose candidate coach -- an appropriate position for the only Alberta Conservative candidate to be beaten by a New Democrat in 2011.
- Andrew Constantinidis, former riding president for Rob Anders, the sleepy Calgary West MP and Harper loyalist, now nominated as the Wildrose candidate in the provincial Calgary West riding.
- Tim Dyck, another member of Anders's constituency brain trust, now the Wildrose candidate in Calgary Bow.
- Danny Hozak, once the federal Tory constituency association president for the Vegreville-Lloydminster riding, now the Wildrose candidate for Vermilion-Lloydminster.
- William McBeath, former operations director for Tory minister Diane Finley in Ottawa, now Wildrose communications director.
- Candice Malcolm, once executive assistant to Smith, later communications aide to Immigration Minister Jason Kenney, and now back as some kind of Wildrose operative.
- James Johnson, former Alberta regional organizer for the Harper Conservatives, now chief researcher for the Wildrose Legislative caucus.
- Hamish Marshall, a former pollster for the federal Conservatives who is now Chief Research Officer of Abingdon Research, creator of a controversial Wildrose push poll.

Most Alberta Tory MPs are leaning to Wildrose: Rob Anders

A majority of Alberta’s 28 federal MPs are quietly “leaning” in the direction of the Wildrose party, which is seeking next week to end the Progressive Conservative dynasty in the province, says Calgary MP Rob Anders.
“I think I can safely say that the majority of members of Parliament inside the Alberta caucus, that I’m aware of, are leaning Wildrose,” said the MP for Calgary West, according to Monday’s edition of the Hill Times, an Ottawa-based weekly political and public policy newspaper.
“There are still a few stragglers who are supporting the Progressive Conservatives, but they’re more reluctant to make a public admission of that because they see the numbers and where things are heading.”

Jason Kenney lobs email A-bomb at Alberta Deputy Premier Thomas Lukaszuk.

“Honourable Thomas Lukaszuk, deputy premier of Alberta will be in Ottawa on Thursday, June 21st, 2012 and is requesting a lunch or dinner with caucus,” says the email written by Calkins’ legislative assistant at 4:57 p.m. “Mr. Calkins will not be able to host this event as he has prior commitments, but would like to see if there is any caucus member who would be willing to host this event for the deputy premier.”

Kenney shot back a response just five minutes later[]: “I say a definite ‘no’ to Lukaszyk. I don’t think it makes sense to create a precedent to do a special caucus meeting for every visiting minister from the provincial government. Plus he is a complete and utter asshole.”

And let's not forget that the cons are trying to recruit the most fundamentalist element of the Reform party to take the charge in Calgary-Centre. Ezra Levant.

[andasen]

Originally Posted by suburbia

And let's not forget that the cons are trying to recruit the most fundamentalist element of the Reform party to take the charge in Calgary-Centre. Ezra Levant.

If this is true I would honestly question the sanity of the Conservative Party's strategy team. Calgary Centre is the closest thing to a swing riding in Fortress Calgary and choosing someone as ideological as Ezra would be a dangerous gamble to make. I'm not certain if any of the other parties would be able to capitalize on this but an independent centrist would be quite palatable to this riding if my perception is correct.

[Doug]

Calgary would cease being Calgary if it ever elected an NDP representative.