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  #41  
Old Posted Dec 23, 2020, 11:56 PM
mrnyc mrnyc is offline
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Originally Posted by memph View Post
While Canada doesn't have anywhere as warm or sunny as the US Sunbelt, the difference between the colder parts of Canada that are inhabited, and the warmer parts that are inhabited, is comparable.

Average winter temperature (Dec-Feb)

Fort McMurray: -15.3C
Winnipeg: -14.3C
Saskatoon: -12.6C
Edmonton: -8.9C
St. John's: -3.6C
Halifax: -2.8C
Toronto: -2.3C
Kelowna: -2.0C
Vancouver: 4.2C

Buffalo: -2.7C
Chicago: -2.5C
Detroit: -2.3C
Indianapolis: -0.8C
Columbus: 0.0C
Nashville: 4.4C
Charlotte: 5.6C
Raleigh: 6.1C
Greenville: 6.7C
Atlanta: 7.4C

So the difference in the winter temperature between the colder parts of the Great Lakes (Upstate NY, Chicago/Milwaukee) and the warmer parts of the Sunbelt boom towns (ex Atlanta) is about 10C, same as the difference between the milder parts of Eastern Canada (ex Halifax, Toronto) and the colder parts of the Prairies, and that doesn't even take into account coastal BC which is 6-7C warmer still.



^ nah, because atl is not the low end of the south usa, but half of those canadian cities you picked are.
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  #42  
Old Posted Dec 24, 2020, 12:04 AM
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Originally Posted by mrnyc View Post
no. covid aside, deaths are poor lately because the current leading baby boomer generation is dying off. down the line there are more millenials than boomers, so even with zero immigration in the future that eras day in the setting sun will be within a larger population than today.
Baby Boomers are not dying off today. Silents are, and they are a much smaller generation. When they will, the number of yearly deaths will jump from the current 2.9 million to 4 million around 2030-2035.

American women are already having 1.69 children when 2.07 children are necessary to make population stable in the long run. Without (a lot) immigration the US population will decline rather soon than late.


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Originally Posted by mrnyc View Post
as for population, of course when the trump value on immigration is reopened ... next month ... immigration levels could be anything. more than 1 million immigrants typically legally arrive in the usa each year, with china, india, mexico and phillipines in that order having the most lately. the usa has by far the most foreign born and accepts the most immigrants of any nation, there is no reason to think that would not continue as we move forward.
By the late 2030's, deaths might be exceeding births by 1 million. So those 1 million immigrants will be enough to make population stagnant, not to grow.
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  #43  
Old Posted Dec 24, 2020, 12:06 AM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
With COVID-19 deaths plus no immigration, the US is set to decline between mid-2020 and mid-2021. By 2030, people born in 1950 (4 million) will start to die en masse (the US life expectancy is 78 y/o) and therefore there will be close to 4 million people dying every year by 2030. Births are decline steadily and will be around 3.5 million (optimisti) or below 3 million (pessimist).
I am not going to answer all your points because they are irrelevant

I linked demographic information, the USA is one of the few countries that isnt looking at extreme declines over the rest of the century.

I dont care that you dont think so or you find that difficult to understand, its irrelevant the numbers are the numbers.

You think you know more than the people that do this for a living? The rate of US pop growth is not going to be as fast as in the 21st century but it isn't even expected to level off until after 2100

And of course there is a lot of things that can change culturally, economically, geopolitically that could change how things look drastically. However I do think its hilarious that you think 300k dead 70+ year olds as at all impacting long term demographic trends.

You clearly have no idea how big the USA is or how deadly Covid is.

Even with all of the deaths the USA still grew in 2020, you would need to kill literally MILLIONS of people under the age of 40 to greatly impact future births in any significant way.
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  #44  
Old Posted Dec 24, 2020, 12:16 AM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
I won't get into US politics with you as I don't live up there nor am I interested on it as you are. However I have the impression immigration is not a partisan issue anymore and Trump made even its opponents to become hostile or at least neutral to immigration. Few people are left calling for more and more immigrants. I don't see Biden leaving doors wide open. He will probably be very cautious on this respect.

Demographics are indeed not set on stone, but we have some hard facts. The US natural growth plunged from 2 million as recent as 2007 to mere 900,000 in 2019, and even without Covid-19 would probably fell to 800,000 or less in 2020. Births are falling, deaths are always rising, and few immigrants get in.

By 2030, with 3.5 million-4 million deaths every year, will be challenging to keep population growing.

In fact, I don't think any country should have this as a target. This ship has sailed. I believe they should focus on changing their economic system far from the ad aeternum growth model and preventing a hard decline which would be harder to manage.

The US should look to Pittsburgh metro area, that has been shrinking for the past 60 years, but made the decline to become much smoother and reinvented themselves economically.
Unlike most countries the USA's boomers had kids, AKA Millennials. Most countries have few Millennials but the USA has as many Millennials as Boomers.

Thats why Europe and Asia are entering rapid declines right now while the USA is still expected to grow well into the future.
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  #45  
Old Posted Dec 24, 2020, 12:19 AM
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Originally Posted by Obadno View Post
I am not going to answer all your points because they are irrelevant

I linked demographic information, the USA is one of the few countries that isnt looking at extreme declines over the rest of the century.

I dont care that you dont think so or you find that difficult to understand, its irrelevant the numbers are the numbers.

You think you know more than the people that do this for a living? The rate of US pop growth is not going to be as fast as in the 21st century but it isn't even expected to level off until after 2100

And of course there is a lot of things that can change culturally, economically, geopolitically that could change how things look drastically. However I do think its hilarious that you think 300k dead 70+ year olds as at all impacting long term demographic trends.

You clearly have no idea how big the USA is or how deadly Covid is.

Even with all of the deaths the USA still grew in 2020, you would need to kill literally MILLIONS of people under the age of 40 to greatly impact future births in any significant way.
I don't understand why you're respoding so angrily about a simple demographic discussion, specially when you seemed so happy about other random countries (UK, Brazil), facing similar demographic challenges.

All those tons of charts I'm familiar with, are always changing as they are not updated 24/7. If you take charts made in 2015 or 2010 they will be telling a different story.

Facts:

--- Births in the US are falling at a quite fast pace. 4.3 million (2007) to 3.7 million (2019) within a mere 12 year-timeframe;

--- Deaths, as it happens everywhere, are always growing as there are always more older people that will eventually die;

--- As conseguence, natural growth (births minus deaths) in the US plunged from 1.9 million 2007 to mere 900 k in 2018, a massive shift in a such small period.

Those things already happened. It's not a projection. It's very clear where things are going, and being conservative/optimistic, the most likely number for births in the US by 2030 will be 3.4 million at most. Deaths, considering some delay and postponing baby boomers deaths, will be around 3.5-3.6 million.

More: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demogr...tics_from_1935
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  #46  
Old Posted Dec 24, 2020, 12:21 AM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
I don't understand why you're respoding so angrily about a simple demographic discussion, specially when you seemed so happy about other random countries (UK, Brazil), facing similar demographic challenges.

All those tons of charts I'm familiar with, are always changing as they are not updated 24/7. If you take charts made in 2015 or 2010 they will be telling a different story.

Facts:

--- Births in the US are falling at a quite fast pace. 4.3 million to 3.7 million within 12 years only.

--- Deaths, as it happens everywhere, are always growing as there are always more older people that will eventually die.

--- As conseguence, natural growth in the US plunged from 1.9 million 2007 to 900 k in 2018, a massive shift for such small time frame.

Those things already happened. It's not a projection. It's very clear where things are going, and being conservative/optimistic, the most likely number for births in the US by 2030 will be 3.4 million at most. Deaths, considering some delay and postponing baby boomers deaths, will be around 3.5-3.6 million.

More: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demogr...tics_from_1935
Lol I am not angry, you are just wrong
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  #47  
Old Posted Dec 24, 2020, 12:26 AM
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Yuri, your premise is wrong because you're using current data to extrapolate outward, which is nonsense. It would be like forecasting German demographic data based on WW2 years.

There has been an almost total freeze of international inmigration, which was unprecedented in modern American history. That freeze is ending, within days.
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  #48  
Old Posted Dec 24, 2020, 12:28 AM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Yuri, your premise is wrong because you're using current data to extrapolate outward, which is nonsense. It would be like forecasting German demographic data based on WW2 years.

There has been an almost total freeze of international inmigration, which was unprecedented in modern American history. That freeze is ending, within days.
There wasn't even "0" immigration during any of Trumps years in office nor during Corvid just less than usual.

Less of an increase is still an increase
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  #49  
Old Posted Dec 24, 2020, 12:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Obadno View Post
Unlike most countries the USA's boomers had kids, AKA Millennials. Most countries have few Millennials but the USA has as many Millennials as Boomers.

Thats why Europe and Asia are entering rapid declines right now while the USA is still expected to grow well into the future.
Demographically, the US is not that different from Western Europe anymore. If I'm not mistaken, today the UK average age is only 2 years higher than the US.

Anyway, millenials are already born and counted.

The thing is they made the US to reach their all time fertility rate: 1.69 children in 2019 (way below 2.07, the number necessary to make the population stable).

And as the older millenials are leaving the child bearing age, and as they are as numerous as baby boomers as you said so, that's another demographic bomb in the future. Smaller generations on child bearing age responsible to have more and more children to replace their more numerous parents and grandparents.

Gen-Z and the millenials children won't have enough children themselves to offset the baby boomers deaths and the millenials on the second half of the century.
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  #50  
Old Posted Dec 24, 2020, 12:31 AM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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Originally Posted by Obadno View Post
There wasn't even "0" immigration during any of Trumps years in office nor during Corvid just less than usual.

Less of an increase is still an increase
There was an 85% decline, which is a massive decrease. Coupled with outmigration, it's unprecedented in modern U.S. history, and means that real-time net inmigration is essentially zero.

If you have low birthrates + minimal immigration you eventually have population decline. U.S. birthrates are also now lower than many Western European nations, but, again, this is tied to immigration. Germany has basically the same birthrate as the U.S. now, almost entirely due to high(er) birthrates among German immigrants.

But my point is that you can't extrapolate from extraordinary circumstances. Covid + immigration shutdown is an extraordinary circumstance, and both factors are nearing their end.
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  #51  
Old Posted Dec 24, 2020, 12:40 AM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Yuri, your premise is wrong because you're using current data to extrapolate outward, which is nonsense. It would be like forecasting German demographic data based on WW2 years.

There has been an almost total freeze of international inmigration, which was unprecedented in modern American history. That freeze is ending, within days.
My premise would be wrong if I was talking about far future, 2060, 2070.

I'm talking about 2030-2035, which is just round the corner. Demographics are like train moving. If they turn off the engine, they will keep going for a while and you can easily predict where/when it will finally stop. And the opposite is true: if it restart, it will take a while to reach an optimical speed.

Aside my tongue in cheek 2020-2021 comment, I'm only referring to pre-Covid, the 2007-2019 developments. It's a very clear trend of collapsing births, with an always rising deaths. Even Trump's anti-immigration stance won't make much difference here, as fertility rates are dropping like a rock.

It's very well-documented millenials are having very few children in the US and elsewhere (even Europe that enjoyed some TFR recovery is once again falling), further depressing demographics.
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  #52  
Old Posted Dec 24, 2020, 12:44 AM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
There was an 85% decline, which is a massive decrease. Coupled with outmigration, it's unprecedented in modern U.S. history, and means that real-time net inmigration is essentially zero.

If you have low birthrates + minimal immigration you eventually have population decline. U.S. birthrates are also now lower than many Western European nations, but, again, this is tied to immigration. Germany has basically the same birthrate as the U.S. now, almost entirely due to high(er) birthrates among German immigrants.

But my point is that you can't extrapolate from extraordinary circumstances. Covid + immigration shutdown is an extraordinary circumstance, and both factors are nearing their end.
You guys are not considering the delay in which these births are taking place. Germany and US millennials might have the same birthrates but Germany is already starting with very few millennials relative to their older population. See :https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2020/

Germany's population is literally at its peak baring millions of immigrants a year because German Babby Boomers have had low birthrates since the 1980's

Vs American this year https://www.populationpyramid.net/un...-america/2020/
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  #53  
Old Posted Dec 24, 2020, 12:49 AM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
My premise would be wrong
I know you are a very very smart guy but this has already been figured out.

Question: How long does it take to make a 25 year old?

I understand that US birthrates are quite low right now, lowest they've been but you are not considering that USA birthrates are low for the first time right now, meaning the issues with Millennials not having enough kids does not result in a compounding issue until 20-30 years from now (and that assumes Gen Z also does not have kids)

In most of Europe birthrates collapsed 40+ years ago, Meaning Boomers didn't have kids, Xr's didnt have kids and millennials didnt have kids, they are now in terminal decline that CANNOT be correct outside of a mass of increased births now for results in 20-30 years.

Seriously this website is very informative please take a look and stop assuming things with you're giant smartboy brain.

https://www.populationpyramid.net/un...-america/2020/
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  #54  
Old Posted Dec 24, 2020, 2:24 AM
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What a fascinating site--not only does it allow population pyramid comparisons between nations, it also allows comparisons between the present population pyramid and those of prior years going back to 1950.
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  #55  
Old Posted Dec 24, 2020, 4:01 AM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
With COVID-19 deaths plus no immigration, the US is set to decline between mid-2020 and mid-2021. By 2030, people born in 1950 (4 million) will start to die en masse (the US life expectancy is 78 y/o) and therefore there will be close to 4 million people dying every year by 2030. Births are decline steadily and will be around 3.5 million (optimisti) or below 3 million (pessimist).

1 million immigrants will be required to keep population stable. Much more to keep it growing.



No, they haven't. It's at 1.69 and falling. And as life expectancy is very low for a developed country, earlier deaths make things more complicated.



I don't understand why should I be worry about the UK or Brazil, nor how this has any implications on the US demographics challenges.

The UK is attracting not fewer immigrants than US, despite being an overcrowded island with 1/5 of the US population. In any case, as the whole world minus Africa and Middle East, is set to decline somewhere between 2020-2050.

Same for Brazil: population is younger than the US, life expectancy growing, but low TFR (1.70, like the US) will make the country to shrink between the late 2030's or early 2040's, few years after the US.
I agree with this. Nothing wrong with having less people.
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  #56  
Old Posted Dec 24, 2020, 4:53 AM
memph memph is offline
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^ nah, because atl is not the low end of the south usa, but half of those canadian cities you picked are.
Well, retirees are moving more to Florida and Arizona yeah (although also the Carolinas and... Delaware?), but as for where college educated Millennials are moving, that's more varied. Chicago, Minneapolis, Portland, Seattle, Denver, Bay Area, DC, Nashville, Atlanta, NC, FL, TX, Phoenix all seem to be big draws. I think that variety shows that climate isn't the main factor for that cohort. And I think having college educated Millennials moving to your city is more valuable than retiring baby boomers (especially with the questionable future of pension plans).
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  #57  
Old Posted Dec 24, 2020, 5:05 AM
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What a fascinating site--not only does it allow population pyramid comparisons between nations, it also allows comparisons between the present population pyramid and those of prior years going back to 1950.
Seems like it's plotting the UN "medium" projections, whatever those are. The methodology is available but I haven't read it.
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  #58  
Old Posted Dec 24, 2020, 6:11 AM
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I feel like they've adjusted GA's population upwards every single estimate. Can't wait until the official census numbers are out.
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  #59  
Old Posted Dec 24, 2020, 9:38 AM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
I won't get into US politics with you as I don't live up there nor am I interested on it as you are. However I have the impression immigration is not a partisan issue anymore and Trump made even its opponents to become hostile or at least neutral to immigration. Few people are left calling for more and more immigrants. I don't see Biden leaving doors wide open. He will probably be very cautious on this respect.
Interestingly, this appears to be the opposite of the case.
Americans Want More, Not Less, Immigration for First Time: https://news.gallup.com/poll/313106/...irst-time.aspx
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  #60  
Old Posted Dec 24, 2020, 3:58 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Interestingly, this appears to be the opposite of the case.
Americans Want More, Not Less, Immigration for First Time: https://news.gallup.com/poll/313106/...irst-time.aspx
Yes this is likely going to happen but not for the reasons most people would assume

It’s more structural, the desire is for skilled immigrants. Not refugees and low skilled laborers
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