The Titan Arum Blooms: Alberta Election on May 5th

[Spliff]

Originally Posted by Doug

The more interesting numbers would be what percentage of income is sourced from government either through transfers or employment. The stats you presented don't answer that.

I'm originally from Edmonton BTW and did three degrees at U of A.

I think the PCs need to be turfed, and if the NDP formed the government then lets see how they do. The current PCs are not conservative, and haven't been for a long time. They have been spending tax money like drunken sailers, and are a corrupt and unethical organization. Prentice's poaching of the Wild Rose leadership was just another arrogant move by a political party that has been in power too long.

BTW, does being from Edmonton and graduating from the U of A supposed to mean something to this conversation? I don't get it.

[big W]

Just thought I would indicate the latest indications from threehundredeight.com seat projections from the ridings level. I looked at the Edmonton and Calgary areas and for the rest of Alberta I segregated out Lethbridge as it is different.

Calgary Region has 28 seats. 11 WR, 11 PC, 3 NDP, 3 LP
Edmonton Region has 28 seats. 16 NDP, 11 PC 1 LP
Lethbridge - 2 Seats both NDP (I assume this is due to a heavy amount of students.
Rest of Alberta - 29 Seats. 24 WR, 2 NDP and 3 PC.

For Rural Alberta, pretty much all Wild Rose. With the NDP getting a seat in Red Deer and one in Wetaskiwin which is just outside the Edmonton area. The PC get a Grande Prairie seat, one in Peace River and West Yellowhead (Jasper/Hinton/Edson). It should be noted that 3 PC seats are really 3 way races along with the Red Deer WR seat.

[lio45]

So the current predictions are still a Wildrose minority govt? Interesting!

[Xelebes]

Originally Posted by big W

Just thought I would indicate the latest indications from threehundredeight.com seat projections from the ridings level. I looked at the Edmonton and Calgary areas and for the rest of Alberta I segregated out Lethbridge as it is different.

Calgary Region has 28 seats. 11 WR, 11 PC, 3 NDP, 3 LP
Edmonton Region has 28 seats. 16 NDP, 11 PC 1 LP
Lethbridge - 2 Seats both NDP (I assume this is due to a heavy amount of students.
Rest of Alberta - 29 Seats. 24 WR, 2 NDP and 3 PC.

For Rural Alberta, pretty much all Wild Rose. With the NDP getting a seat in Red Deer and one in Wetaskiwin which is just outside the Edmonton area. The PC get a Grande Prairie seat, one in Peace River and West Yellowhead (Jasper/Hinton/Edson). It should be noted that 3 PC seats are really 3 way races along with the Red Deer WR seat.

34-35-38 WR
22-25-26 PC
23-27 NDP
4 LP

Hm

[kwoldtimer]

So the NDP achieves a considerable gain, perhaps even Official Opposition status, as the conservative vote splits between Wildrose and the Conservatives. Could make for some weird dynamics if the Conservatives become the Official Opposition to Wildrose.

[MalcolmTucker]

Please, don't take the aggregation of bad polls as even somewhat predictive.

[Xelebes]

Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker

Please, don't take the aggregation of bad polls as even somewhat predictive.

Oh we know that. You keep saying that though as if we don't know that.

[MalcolmTucker]

People outside the province might not know we have went from bad in 2012 to atrocious today.

[Migs]

Alberta desperately needs a Brad Wall type leader IMO.

[Xelebes]

Originally Posted by Migs

Alberta desperately needs a Brad Wall type leader IMO.

That is supposed to be Prentice.

[Loco101]

Prentice was born where I live, Timmins, ON.

I really question the polls in Alberta. Many of them are don't seem to be done properly and may be underestimating the status quo PC vote yet again. But I don't doubt the rise in NDP support to the extend that the party will gain a number of seats.

[Xelebes]

Rutherford - Ontario
Sifton - Ontario (Canada West)
Stewart - Ontario
Greenfield - England
Brownlee - Ontario
Reid - Scotland
Aberhart - Ontario
Manning - Saskatchewan
Strom - Alberta (first premier to be born in Alberta)
Lougheed - Alberta
Getty - Quebec
Klein - Alberta
Stelmach - Alberta (first premier to be born north of the Battle River)
Redford - British Columbia
Prentice - Ontario

[BretttheRiderFan]

Living in Edmonton I can tell you the NDP surge here is very real at the moment. I'm also somewhat surprised at the resilience in the number of Liberal Party lawn signs I've seen in different parts of the city. I wouldn't be surprised if they played spoiler in some places and helped return Tory MLAs.

[BretttheRiderFan]

Despite not being born here, Rutherford definitely had a good legacy for Edmonton, and a not-so-good one for Calgary.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by BretttheRiderFan

Living in Edmonton I can tell you the NDP surge here is very real at the moment. I'm also somewhat surprised at the resilience in the number of Liberal Party lawn signs I've seen in different parts of the city. I wouldn't be surprised if they played spoiler in some places and helped return Tory MLAs.

308 now has the NDP virtually sweeping Edmonton, and Wildrose virtually sweeping rural Alberta, which seems reasonable at this time. The PC's are then reduced to 10 seats, mostly in Calgary.

[esquire]

^ I have to admit I haven't been following the Alberta election that closely, but what has happened that caused the NDP to soar in the polls? For as long as I can remember they and the Liberals have basically formed rump oppositions with a few seats each but all of a sudden now they're charging hard with a potential to form government... that's unexpected to say the least.

Also, what kind of government would Wildrose be capable of forming if elected? Given that so much of their bench strength either defected or withdrew from politics, I'd imagine they have a pretty motley crew of candidates.

[eternallyme]

If the NDP surge in Edmonton translates federally, it could potentially give them 6 or 7 seats plus the one they have now would be super-safe.

[Antigonish]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

If the NDP surge in Edmonton translates federally, it could potentially give them 6 or 7 seats plus the one they have now would be super-safe.

The hype is real. Not an NDP backer either but I'll toss them the vote both federally and provincially this year.

That said, the problem with NDP governments in the past is they never accually expect to win these elections and when they do they get embarrassed by the opposition (usually PCs). Turmoil happens, they then spend more than they have and get voted out for another 20 years. Let's hope Notley is as good as she seems!

[lubicon]

Originally Posted by esquire

^ I have to admit I haven't been following the Alberta election that closely, but what has happened that caused the NDP to soar in the polls? For as long as I can remember they and the Liberals have basically formed rump oppositions with a few seats each but all of a sudden now they're charging hard with a potential to form government... that's unexpected to say the least.

.

Honestly I don't think the surge in NDP and Wildrose support has much to do with these two parties but rather voter displeasure with the PC's. People just seem so dis-satisfied with them that they seem willing to vote for almost anyone else regardless of policy (if they have even bothered to look into each party's policies at all).

you can put me in this camp to some extent. I am certainly not thrilled with the PC's, especially in regards to the budget and a couple of Bill's that have been passed over the past few years but the alternatives are not appealing either. Right now there doesn't seem to by anyone out there who captures my thoughts and views for moving this province forward.

[kwoldtimer]

How different from an Alberta PC government would a Wildrose minority government actually be? What would one expect to see from a Wildrose majority government?