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  #61  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2014, 3:46 PM
big W big W is offline
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Originally Posted by mousquet View Post
I think life in the UK can be rough, and even rougher than in North America. Life expectancy in Glasgow would be of 59, I heard recently. I could hardly believe it. That is rough like some of the poorest areas of Africa. Otherwise, the single figure of GDP per capita is definitely too short to assess the overall quality of life of a given place. Do you seriously think Canada would be so much more comfy than say Italy, especially northern Italy? Honestly, I wouldn't bet on that when North America is known for being a bit too harsh to their poor yet, which doesn't help to make them so enviable.
I cannot say on Italy as I have not spent a great deal of time there. But in Canada vs the US there is a huge difference on social spending. In addition it depends on where in Canada as most such programs are provincial jurisidction in Canada and not Federal. The main being Health Care (all provinces have full publicly administered health care systems), education and social services.

One example would be post secondary tuition rates. For example Quebec has a model of maintaining the lowest university tuition rates in Canada ($2,700 per year).

In Alberta for example where I grew up, university tuition at top universities is $6,000 per year, however any loans over $20,000 are forgiven by the Province. In addtion, depending on the financial situation of students families, the addtional money is forgiven by the Province. So in my brothers case he ended up with $35,000 of student debt by the time he finished his masters degree but only had to pay back $16,000 as anything over $20,000 is automatically forgiven and then he recived an addtional 20% or $4,000 also forgiven due to family situation. In addtion, the loans were intrest free until 1 year after he graduated and started his job with the interest also being a tax write off. So for 6 years of university he ended up paying about $2,500 per year. While someone with rich parents would have to pay the full $35,000.
Manitoba for example has tuition rates for doctors for example are of $20,000 per year but will forgive up to 100% of the student loans if you stay in Manitoba. For each year after you graduate and stay in Manitoba you get 10% forgiven and once you hit 10 years the entire tuition is written off. Each has is focusing on the needs of the local population and tending to the poor in a different way.
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  #62  
Old Posted Sep 23, 2014, 1:44 PM
nito nito is offline
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Following on from my previous post and subsequent responses:

Miu – That was based on The Economist data. Eurostat data shows the UK unemployment rate to still be higher than Germany, and ranked 6th in the EU-28. Analysing the divergent economic trajectories of the UK and French economies, it is highly plausible that France will have an unemployment rate double that of its old adversary by the end of next year.

Mousquet – The UK economy is most certainly more reactive, a legacy of the structural reforms that took place during and after Thatcher’s tenure to produce a more flexible working environment. It can hardly be described as a utopia I should add, but it is interesting to note that even when the UK economy experienced a substantial shock following the financial crisis, unemployment remained below that of France, a statistic which has been the case over the last decade. I think the ultimate problem in France is that it has yet to fully come to terms with globalisation, and the belief that it can take all of the upside (trade, investment, jobs, etc…) but none of its downsides (transparency, ease of doing business, regulatory tape, etc…).

I doubt many French politicians and commentators back at the height of the bailout of RBS, envisioned that the UK economy would be growing at an annual rate of 3.0% and that France would register two consecutive quarters of no growth, struggling with very high levels of unemployment and be fortunate to meek out 0.3% in 2014.
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  #63  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2014, 2:06 PM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is online now
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Originally Posted by nito View Post
Analysing the divergent economic trajectories of the UK and French economies, it is highly plausible that France will have an unemployment rate double that of its old adversary by the end of next year.
What language is that??
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Originally Posted by nito View Post
it is interesting to note that even when the UK economy experienced a substantial shock following the financial crisis, unemployment remained below that of France, a statistic which has been the case over the last decade.
The unemployment rate figure in the UK is artificially brought down by putting lots of unemployed people on incapacity benefits. Once the "incapacitated" people are reintegrated among the unemployed, the unemployment rate of the UK becomes the same as that of France.
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Originally Posted by nito View Post
I doubt many French politicians and commentators back at the height of the bailout of RBS, envisioned that the UK economy would be growing at an annual rate of 3.0% and that France would register two consecutive quarters of no growth
One swallow doesn't make a summer. The French economy has grown more since 2008 than the British economy. The UK still has to catch up with France.
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  #64  
Old Posted Sep 25, 2014, 10:49 AM
nito nito is offline
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Originally Posted by New Brisavoine View Post
What language is that??
Comical English I do believe

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Originally Posted by New Brisavoine View Post
The unemployment rate figure in the UK is artificially brought down by putting lots of unemployed people on incapacity benefits. Once the "incapacitated" people are reintegrated among the unemployed, the unemployment rate of the UK becomes the same as that of France.
Incorrect. The Office for National Statistics (like Eurostat and many other countries and authorities) uses the International Labour Organisation (a UN agency) definition of unemployment.

As per ILO guidelines, people that are studying, suffer a disability/condition, or look after their children/relatives are classified as being economically inactive and are subsequently not included in unemployment figures because they are out of the labour market.

According to Eurostat, not only does France have a higher unemployment rate and lower employment rate compared to the UK, but as per Q1 2014 figures, the ‘active’ population of France stood at 28.31mn, below the 31.29mn figure for the UK despite the smaller total population.

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Originally Posted by New Brisavoine View Post
One swallow doesn't make a summer. The French economy has grown more since 2008 than the British economy. The UK still has to catch up with France.
The UK economy undoubtedly experienced a severe contraction following the financial crisis, but the last three years have been a drastically different story.

The present narrative is of two completely divergent economies and unless there is a yet-to-materialise seismic economic shift the UK will conceivably overtake the French economy before the end of the decade:
- the UK has been experiencing multiple quarters of strong growth, massive reductions in unemployment and exceptionally strong confidence levels amongst consumers and businesses, etc…
- the French economy has flat lined for the last two quarters, growth has been lacking, PMI data is atrocious, investment is down, unemployment is still far too high, etc…
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  #65  
Old Posted Sep 25, 2014, 5:10 PM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is online now
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Originally Posted by nito View Post
Incorrect. The Office for National Statistics (like Eurostat and many other countries and authorities) uses the International Labour Organisation (a UN agency) definition of unemployment.

As per ILO guidelines, people that are studying, suffer a disability/condition, or look after their children/relatives are classified as being economically inactive and are subsequently not included in unemployment figures because they are out of the labour market.
Do you realize the loop in your reasoning?

If people are artificially declared as incapacitated, obviously they will not appear in the unemployment figures, and that will respect the ILO definition of unemployment.

What's specific about the UK is the Conservative and Labour administrations have put MANY (between 1 and 2 million) people in the incapacitated category. Those same people in Germany or France would NOT be considered incapacitated.
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Originally Posted by nito View Post
According to Eurostat, not only does France have a higher unemployment rate and lower employment rate compared to the UK, but as per Q1 2014 figures, the ‘active’ population of France stood at 28.31mn, below the 31.29mn figure for the UK despite the smaller total population.
France has a higher employment rate than the UK in the 25-54 age bracket. More young people in France pursue higher education than in the UK, so the employment rate of the under 25 is meaningless. And people in France retire early, with lots of people going on pre-retirement after 54, so again not comparable to the UK. It's the 25-54 age bracket that matters.

As for the total active population, what's surprising? The UK has a very lax immigration policy, with a net migration of +200,000 every year, when France has strict immigration policies and a net migration of only +50,000 per year. It's thus not surprising that the UK has more active people (France has more toddlers and children than the UK, whereas the UK has more people from 25 to 50 than France, due to high net migration). What's surprising is that with a larger active population, the UK doesn't manage to have a larger economy than France.
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Originally Posted by nito View Post
The present narrative is of two completely divergent economies and unless there is a yet-to-materialise seismic economic shift the UK will conceivably overtake the French economy before the end of the decade:
- the UK has been experiencing multiple quarters of strong growth, massive reductions in unemployment and exceptionally strong confidence levels amongst consumers and businesses, etc…
Yeah, yeah. I heard that in 2007 already. We know what happened next.
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  #66  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2014, 11:27 AM
nito nito is offline
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Originally Posted by New Brisavoine View Post
Do you realize the loop in your reasoning?

If people are artificially declared as incapacitated, obviously they will not appear in the unemployment figures, and that will respect the ILO definition of unemployment.

What's specific about the UK is the Conservative and Labour administrations have put MANY (between 1 and 2 million) people in the incapacitated category. Those same people in Germany or France would NOT be considered incapacitated.
You are going to have to clarify with a detailed breakdown who these 1-2mn people are, the conditions they suffer from and whether people suffering identical conditions are classified as unemployed in France and Germany before I can comment further. I would find it a bit harsh that the French state would force people into unemployment if they are suffering from a disability or other condition.

Quote:
Originally Posted by New Brisavoine View Post
France has a higher employment rate than the UK in the 25-54 age bracket. More young people in France pursue higher education than in the UK, so the employment rate of the under 25 is meaningless. And people in France retire early, with lots of people going on pre-retirement after 54, so again not comparable to the UK. It's the 25-54 age bracket that matters.
You can’t use the argument that consecutive British parliaments’ have pushed people into incapacity to lower unemployment levels, and then narrow the age brackets because the French state encourages more people to end up in higher education or forces people to retire earlier.

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Originally Posted by New Brisavoine View Post
As for the total active population, what's surprising? The UK has a very lax immigration policy, with a net migration of +200,000 every year, when France has strict immigration policies and a net migration of only +50,000 per year. It's thus not surprising that the UK has more active people (France has more toddlers and children than the UK, whereas the UK has more people from 25 to 50 than France, due to high net migration). What's surprising is that with a larger active population, the UK doesn't manage to have a larger economy than France.
The UK doesn’t have a lax immigration policy; the difference is the allure of EU migrants and the opportunities the country offers.

And as stated in my previous posts, the UK economy is still recovering, but based on recent data, and previously mentioned points, the higher active population is one factor as to why the UK economy is booming and why it will surpass the economy of France.

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Originally Posted by New Brisavoine View Post
Yeah, yeah. I heard that in 2007 already. We know what happened next.
I don’t get what you mean but this; that somehow the UK is going to re-enter into a financial crisis, and/or that somehow there is no possibility for the UK economy surpassing that of France? Where is the evidence?

The reality is that the UK economy has been growing strongly now for a realisable period of time now and is likely to continue doing so into 2015 and beyond due to the prevailing conditions and confidence. Not only that but subsequent revisions recently unveiled showed that the UK economy experienced a far softer recession (6.0% compared to 7.2%) than was previously thought, and that the UK economy surpassed its financial crisis peak last year (three quarters earlier than previously assumed).

The French economy simply doesn’t have such a rosy economic outlook, what with the economy flat-lining, a stumbling deficit reduction strategy, and the poor sector indicators & confidence levels

Contrast the latest revised quarterly economic growth for the UK (0.9%) with the potential 1.0% annual growth for the French economy in all of 2015. It’s worlds apart, and if anything the convergence point is drawing nearer.
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