July 1, 2020 Population Estimates - United States of America

[isaidso]

Yes with Baby Boomers starting to die off in increasing number, natural increase (birth - deaths) will fall to zero in most developed countries. Some countries are already seeing a natural decrease as deaths surpass births. The only way to prevent the overall population from declining over the next few decades is to increase immigration numbers because, realistically, our birth rate isn't going back up to replacement levels.

The number of immigrants we take in will have to gradually increase every year because the natural decrease will likely get bigger each year.

[scruffytraveller]

What an interesting discussion.

[bossabreezes]

If we look for immigration as the only way to supplement population, theoretically, at some point Americans will be the minority in America and immigrants will be the majority.

Obviously this is not something anyone should aim for, and grass roots pro-birth campaigns need to be made in each country. Financial incentives and other ways to promote growth from within are essential, because each wave of immigrants will assimilate and eventually have just as few children as the natives and the problem will not be solved.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by bossabreezes

If we look for immigration as the only way to supplement population, theoretically, at some point Americans will be the minority in America and immigrants will be the majority.

Obviously this is not something anyone should aim for, and grass roots pro-birth campaigns need to be made in each country. Financial incentives and other ways to promote growth from within are essential, because each wave of immigrants will assimilate and eventually have just as few children as the natives and the problem will not be solved.

The U.S. has almost always relied on immigration for growth.

[bossabreezes]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

The U.S. has almost always relied on immigration for growth.

So this is the only option? Just because something has always been a certain way is not a valid argument, as we've seen with thousands of other issues.

I'm not anti-immigration, but I also think there are other ways to grow. Plus, native Americans are not happy with their quality of life as a whole and the government should treat their own before others who have no real right to this help.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by bossabreezes

So this is the only option? Just because something has always been a certain way is not a valid argument, as we've seen with thousands of other issues.

This is the culture of the country. You said we should not aim for this but it's the way the country was built.

[bossabreezes]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

This is the culture of the country. You said we should not aim for this but it's the way the country was built.

No, I said the US shouldn't aim for more immigrants than natives. Many countries are built on immigrants but no immigrant based developed country at this point has more immigrants than natives. There is nothing wrong with immigration, I am noting that by importing everything we need (in this case, immigrants), it will not solve the shrinking population problem at its root.

[MolsonExport]

Native Americans have been in the minority since the early 1700s.
"grass roots pro-birth campaigns" don't work. sounds like "hopes and prayers"

[bossabreezes]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Native Americans have been in the minority since the early 1700s.

I said the below:

''Many countries are built on immigrants but no immigrant based developed country at this point has more immigrants than natives.''

So while you are correct, it's not a valid argument.

And yes, grass roots birth programs do work. Look at Hasidic Jews, Mormons, ect.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by bossabreezes

I am noting that by importing everything we need (in this case, immigrants), it will not solve the shrinking population problem at its root.

It actually will solve it because the reason the population is shrinking is that nobody is coming here right now.

[dc_denizen]

the US should encourage more births via higher minimum wage, maternity and paternity leave, and other socialistic policies.

I would like to see these restrictions apply only to large publicly traded service industry corporations. If you are making billions in EBITDA, you can afford these benefits. mom and pops should be exempt.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by bossabreezes

I said the below:

''Many countries are built on immigrants but no immigrant based developed country at this point has more immigrants than natives.''

So while you are correct, it's not a valid argument.

And yes, grass roots birth programs do work. Look at Hasidic Jews, Mormons, ect.

grass roots religion? Be fruitful and multiply.

[bossabreezes]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

It actually will solve it because the reason the population is shrinking is that nobody is coming here right now.

You said that the US has always been a nation of immigrants (true) and that it will solve the problem is we let more immigrants in. How is this the case if we're already in a predicament of population bottle necking, since we've always been built solely on immigration? Not adding up. And a few years of lowered immigration rates are not the reason this is happening, its because of low birth rates.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by Manitopiaaa

Everyone's treating the death of 69 million Baby Boomers as a demographic catastrophe. I think it'll be the best thing to happen to this country from a national security perspective. We won't be held politically hostage by a people wanting a 95% White America of 150 million people and shrinking.

Agreed. The sooner they're gone the sooner we can plan the future we want. They play an outsized role in our politics and refuse to step aside in most respects of public and even private life.

[bossabreezes]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

Agreed. The sooner they're gone the sooner we can plan the future we want. They play an outsized role in our politics and refuse to step aside in most respects of public and even private life.

This thought process right here shows the weird place we've gotten to as a society.

You don't think like me? Can't wait for you to be dead. All 70 million of you.

Tolerance at it's finest.

I don't agree with all Baby Boomer politics but I also don't take my viewpoints to weird extremes like this.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by bossabreezes

If we look for immigration as the only way to supplement population, theoretically, at some point Americans will be the minority in America and immigrants will be the majority.

Obviously this is not something anyone should aim for, and grass roots pro-birth campaigns need to be made in each country. Financial incentives and other ways to promote growth from within are essential, because each wave of immigrants will assimilate and eventually have just as few children as the natives and the problem will not be solved.

The United States will need to run an 1 million migration surplus to stop the population from falling. That's not a very big number for a 330 million people country. Given only 13% of the population was born outside the country, immigrants will never replace "natives", whites or whatever the group one fears to be outnumbered.

I agree immigration won't be the ultimate answer as emigration countries will eventually shrink as well, but it buys enough time for a society to adapt into this very new shrinking logic. It's not only demographic, but even our economic system might change.

With the pandemics, the US life expectancy fell to 77 y/o (2003 levels), immigration plunged to zero and deaths might be surpassing births as we speak. The US, with its always growing logic, is getting into uncharted territory.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

Agreed. The sooner they're gone the sooner we can plan the future we want. They play an outsized role in our politics and refuse to step aside in most respects of public and even private life.

Society is always changing. Baby Boomers will die, but they will be replaced by Generation X, "the new old people" and they might be perceived as conservative/regressive by a 2030's-2040's standard.

As the US TFR is reaching its all time low, elderly will be more and more numerous and will have an always increasing political power.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by bossabreezes

I said the below:

''Many countries are built on immigrants but no immigrant based developed country at this point has more immigrants than natives.''

Technically the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain all have (way) more immigrants than natives. Singapore once did too.

Anyways, immigrants are a net-plus for society. In pretty much every way.

[bossabreezes]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Technically the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain all have (way) more immigrants than natives. Singapore once did too.

Anyways, immigrants are a net-plus for society. In pretty much every way.

Sure, but these are not legacy immigrant based countries. Singapore is a city-state that never really had a dominant group or culture even if it was a cross-roads and has seen various groups over the centuries.

Also, Qatar and the UAE are not a good model to follow, considering most of their immigrant populations are quite literally slaves or indentured servants.

As mentioned before, I'm not anti immigration lol. But I am against blindly thinking it solves all problems and doesn't create any. I think it's important to challenge the status-quo.
I am an immigrant, btw.

[dc_denizen]

why are natalist policies more controversial among liberals than pro-immigration ones?