Planning for shrinking cities

[foolworm]

Originally Posted by someone123

Many dire predictions have the same flaw: take the current trend and project it forward without considering the consequences and human adaptation. That's what a bunch of early covid models were. So I think that both the likelihood of shrinking populations and the impact of that scenario are smaller than what the doom and gloomers say.

I'm actually of the opinion that projections of shrinking cities are a self-fulfilling argument used to justify austerity measures and hack'n'slash public spending. This is a favourite argument of small government fiscal hawks, particularly of the US variety.

Originally Posted by CityTech

For whatever reason, Toronto's growth is also a lot stronger northward and westward than eastward. York and Peel have way more people than Durham, for example.

That's because the greenbelt is much tighter eastward. Besides all the secondary population centres and infrastructure are south and west of Toronto, as is the major US border crossing.

[Proof Sheet]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Any updates on the status of the world-famous Honeydale Mall in Etobicocacola?

https://www.reddit.com/r/deadmalls/c...ronto_ontario/

This is another mall from hell.

http://www2.bridlewoodmall.com/ apparently they have been delighting shoppers since 1975

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

I think you’re forgetting Stratford’s proximity to both London and K-W. Not much longer a drive than you’d have getting to Toronto’s downtown amenities from parts of the city.

He's also forgetting that I'm suggesting this under a scenario where Stratford gets better rail service. If Toronto is a little over an hour away while KWC and London are 15 mins away, Stratford would look very appealing.

The sales pitch of urbanites not liking small towns is bunk. Anybody predisposed to leaving Toronto for a lifestyle change (not economic consideration) probably wants a smaller town. Not an overgrown suburb, which is what the cities of KWC and London are becoming.

[MolsonExport]

Stratford will become an overgrown suburb like KW and London if the Toronto folk start moving there en mass. Guaranteed. Big Box Barf and miltonization (cookie cutter snout-houses) do not respect borders. They crop up like the fucking dandelions every spring on my lawn. London (and I reckon some of the constituent towns/cities of the KWC three-headed monster) once looked more like Stratford. London has very appealing areas dominated by century homes and gentrified villages like Wortley village, but unfortunately the new areas are completely big box barf and miltonization.

[Doady]

Kitchener-Waterloo and London are self-contained urban areas with their own idenities and cultures and downtowns that residents can live in close proximity to and in close proximity to the countryside at the same time. It is nothing like Brampton and Mississauga that are just a small, insignificant piece of a much larger puzzle and where everything is far away, too far away for walking and cycling and transit. I don't care how many big box Kitchener-Waterloo and London build, living in those places will be nothing like living in suburbs of Toronto.

[whatnext]

The move away from big overpriced cities like NY was already underway, the pandemic will just accelerate the trend. From CNN today:

Coronavirus is making some people rethink where they want to live
By Catherine E. Shoichet and Athena Jones, CNN
Updated 1:00 PM ET, Sat May 2, 2020

...Lifelong New Yorker Chloé Jo Davis never imagined leaving her beloved city -- until now.

Davis and her husband were already used to working from home, but weeks spent cramped inside their rented two-bedroom apartment on Manhattan's Upper East Side -- homeschooling their three young sons and caring for four rescue pets -- have changed her calculation.

"I feel like I've been through a monsoon every day," she says.
"If here we are in New York City, and the reasons we're here, the reasons we're willing to sacrifice all the basic sort of life benefits that a lot of people have...is for the art, the culture, the diversity, the neighborhood camaraderie," she says. "And now, without that, what do we have? We're stacked in boxes.".

Davis says her family is now looking to leave the density of New York City for the space of the suburbs. Already, she says, prices for rentals outside the city are soaring as demand grows. But she knows they are lucky to have the means to even consider such a move....

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/02/us/ci...rus/index.html

[rousseau]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

He's also forgetting that I'm suggesting this under a scenario where Stratford gets better rail service. If Toronto is a little over an hour away while KWC and London are 15 mins away, Stratford would look very appealing.

The sales pitch of urbanites not liking small towns is bunk. Anybody predisposed to leaving Toronto for a lifestyle change (not economic consideration) probably wants a smaller town. Not an overgrown suburb, which is what the cities of KWC and London are becoming.

This is true. There is a definite contingent of Torontoites cashing out their homes and buying places in Stratford. I know of several on my street alone. A couple doors down from me someone bought an old place for $350,000 and spent the same again fixing it up (previous owner had lived there since 1953!).

Then again, I've also met people who moved from the GTA to K-W who said that they liked how small and neighbourly the city was.

[rousseau]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Was the Agincourt mall an Aging Court of a mall?

Might have been an ordeal to go there, anyway.

"Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more, Or close the wall up with our English dead!"


Anybody see how clever I am with this reference?

[rousseau]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

I think you’re forgetting Stratford’s proximity to both London and K-W. Not much longer a drive than you’d have getting to Toronto’s downtown amenities from parts of the city.

Though the GTA suburbs have more dining and other options than any other city in Canada, so your average Scarberian wouldn't be going downtown very much anyway.

My wife and I regularly go to K-W for Chinese and other East Asian food because it's a pleasant country drive without much traffic.

https://www.google.ca/maps/@43.42073...7i13312!8i6656

Still takes a half hour, though. With the there-and-back, the eating and the other potential stops you normally need about a three-hour block of time for it. Having the ability to do that greatly depends upon your current lot in life.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Stratford will become an overgrown suburb like KW and London if the Toronto folk start moving there en mass. Guaranteed. Big Box Barf and miltonization (cookie cutter snout-houses) do not respect borders. They crop up like the fucking dandelions every spring on my lawn. London (and I reckon some of the constituent towns/cities of the KWC three-headed monster) once looked more like Stratford. London has very appealing areas dominated by century homes and gentrified villages like Wortley village, but unfortunately the new areas are completely big box barf and miltonization.

That's very true but London is not unique in that regard but rather the norm. Vancouver is awash with endless low density sprawl and big barf all over the place.

As for Stratford, it is within commuting distance of London & KWC but considering those 2 cities are the fastest growing cities in the country, the spill over from those cities isn't happening. Stratford, despite being a lovely city, is still growing slower than both the provincial and national rates.

Again I think it's because those Torontonians fleeing are still hardcore urbanites and Stratford simply doesn't offer the urban amenities that it's big neighbours do.

[Truenorth00]

I think urbanism means different things to different people. And that certainly plays out in where people move and how they live.

For example, I value walkability and decent transit. There's a few small towns, I would happily take up in for that walkable aspect. I suspect that urbanists like me would have no issues in Stratford or Paris.

Our small cities like London, KWC and Hamilton on the other hand are quickly having their charm and quality of life crushed by suburbanization as they refuse to put up growth plans focused on intensification. It legitimately sucks to see them squander potential like that. But one gets the sense that they think they can only attract ex-urban Torontonians by offering giant homes for less. So their growth is increasingly coming from sprawl. I suspect that is not much different in the rest of Canada either.

[wave46]

Originally Posted by rousseau

Though the GTA suburbs have more dining and other options than any other city in Canada, so your average Scarberian wouldn't be going downtown very much anyway.

There's more than a little truth to this. I knew of people from Markham and Mississauga who went to Toronto at about the same rate I did (~1-2 times per year) despite my location hundreds of kilometres further away.

[wave46]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Again I think it's because those Torontonians fleeing are still hardcore urbanites and Stratford simply doesn't offer the urban amenities that it's big neighbours do.

I'm mostly wondering what urban amenities somewhere like London & KWC offers someone who has been living in Toronto is used to. Or why Stratford would be so bad in comparison to London and KWC.

They're nice cities, but hardly a hardcore ubranite's dream.

I'd wager that someone cashing out of their detached house in North York is more the target audience for London/KWC.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by wave46

There's more than a little truth to this. I knew of people from Markham and Mississauga who went to Toronto at about the same rate I did (~1-2 times per year) despite my location hundreds of kilometres further away.

Some of the best ethnic food you can have in Toronto is in the suburbs. Increasingly, DT Toronto is filled with more upscale restaurants or if it's ethnic fare it's usually more expensive and often less authentic. Mostly because that's these communities have moved to the burbs and restaurants left in the core are now left catering to yuppies and hispters.

Heck, this is now so known that food writers point this out on columns and TV shows.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by wave46

I'm mostly wondering what urban amenities somewhere like London & KWC offers someone who has been living in Toronto is used to. Or why Stratford would be so bad in comparison to London and KWC.

They're nice cities, but hardly a hardcore ubranite's dream.

I'd wager that someone cashing out of their detached house in North York is more the target audience for London/KWC.

Bang on. I think the millennial couple selling their waterfront condo is more likely to move to Stratford than London, while the Boomer couple downsizing from their suburban Willodale bungalow is likely to move to a suburban home in London.

[swimmer_spe]

We are entering an era of working from home. For that, all you need is a good internet connection. Those $200k condos in the GTA will soon become empty as people move to smaller cities and towns and spend the same money on nice single family homes. There was the push to move to the cities, but that likely is a dead idea now. It will take some time to see it, but, I'll bet that the condo market will see a drop in starts.

[MolsonExport]

nah, because these smaller cities are quite boring, and most people don't want boring. Covid will not last forever.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

We are entering an era of working from home. For that, all you need is a good internet connection. Those $200k condos in the GTA will soon become empty as people move to smaller cities and towns and spend the same money on nice single family homes. There was the push to move to the cities, but that likely is a dead idea now. It will take some time to see it, but, I'll bet that the condo market will see a drop in starts.

Some real fantasy thinking.....

1) Condos cost way more than $200k in the GTA.

2) There's very few WFH policies that say you can live anywhere. Most will have some attendance commitment after Covid.

3) Plenty of options in suburban Toronto or the extended commuter range of Toronto. Like London or Barrie or even Bowmanville.

4) Most people value their community networks more than land. You won't find people moving to North Bay for an acre lot anytime soon.

People have been predicting the demise of Toronto since Confederation. It's hilarious to see that every generation there's a lot who hasn't learned and repeats those predictions.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

nah, because these smaller cities are quite boring, and most people don't want boring. Covid will not last forever.

The thing is small towns can actually be charming. And they can have good options. But that is not the case in most of Canada. Most of our small towns are sprawl on steroids. Same generic architecture and unwalkable neighbourhoods as any suburban subdivision. Same chain stores. Same chain restaurants (only with less ethnic food options). What exactly is appalling about that?

If our small towns had real vision, they'd be building wonderful walkable neighborhoods. They'd have farm-to-table restaurants and microbreweries and town squares. Instead, you get an acre lot, hang out at Tim's, drive everywhere in your pickup, shop at Walmart and dine at Kelsey's or Swiss Chalet. And you get to be obese for that lifestyle!

[KnoxfordGuy]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The thing is small towns can actually be charming. And they can have good options. But that is not the case in most of Canada. Most of our small towns are sprawl on steroids. Same generic architecture and unwalkable neighbourhoods as any suburban subdivision. Same chain stores. Same chain restaurants (only with less ethnic food options). What exactly is appalling about that?

If our small towns had real vision, they'd be building wonderful walkable neighborhoods. They'd have farm-to-table restaurants and microbreweries and town squares. Instead, you get an acre lot, hang out at Tim's, drive everywhere in your pickup, shop at Walmart and dine at Kelsey's or Swiss Chalet. And you get to be obese for that lifestyle!

you've never been to a small town in Atlantic Canada then have you?