The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[JHikka]

Thank you for the population growth, immigrants.

[KnoxfordGuy]

So New Brunswicks population from the estimates for the 3rd quarter are 770,633. These numbers come from the adjustments made for the 2016 census. We are up some 22,000 people from the census. We we very undercounted it would seem lol. Seems we are growing...for now lol

[Taeolas]

Nice that Stats Can basically found a small city we apparently missed.

230,000 away from the Million mark. If we keep inching higher, many of us might actually see NB1million in our lifetimes (without requiring cryogenics).

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

So New Brunswicks population from the estimates for the 3rd quarter are 770,633. These numbers come from the adjustments made for the 2016 census. We are up some 22,000 people from the census. We we very undercounted it would seem lol. Seems we are growing...for now lol

How does this compare to NS & PEI?

[Franco401]

NB has been growing for the past several years, the census takes a sample of 5 whole years meaning it included a couple bad years at the start.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Nove Scotia is up 36,000 from the census. I'd says that an undercount of some 30,000 people.

[Taeolas]

Considering NS has the higher starting population, that (gut feel not crunching numbers) feels like we're both growing at about the same rate.

Also for NB, an increase of 22,000 over 3 years will (using stupid number crunching) will put us at the Million mark in 30 years or so. If we get a government willing to encourage growth by almost any means, we could probably hit Million by 2040ish fairly easily. Of course we're still an older population so more realistically we'd be lucky to hit a million by 2060 even.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

How does this compare to NS & PEI?

NB gains roughly 7K compared to the previous quarter under the previous model. PEI gained 100 and NS nearly 2K., NL continues decline.

Old model:
Q2 2017
NL 525,983
PEI 153,116
NS 958,400
NB 761,214

New model
Q3 2018
NL 525,355
PEI 153,244
NS 959,942
NB 770,633

Maritime population old model/new model:
Q2 2017: 1,872,730
Q3 2018: 1,883,849

We'll have to see where the extra 8K or so is located in NB once the CMA and subdivision numbers are released.

NB's net migration is essentially at zero as well, and was actually +434 for 2016-2017 (meaning more people moved to NB than moved away).

Here's an interesting number:

Estimate of interprovincial migrants by province or territory of origin and destination, annual
Province of Origin Ontario, Province of Destination New Brunswick (July 1st, for previous year):
2014: 2,799
2015: 2,734
2016: 2,718
2017: 3,094
2018: 3,527

The number of people moving from BC to NB has also doubled in the last five years, from 440 in 2014 to 896 in 2018. The number of NBers going the other way has been flat around 600-700 during that time.

What these migration numbers mean are that NB is back to 2008 levels of in-migrants with a slightly lower level of out-migrants. If NB is a migrant-neutral province and it's getting 4K immigrants a year then that's your population growth, more or less.

[MonctonianSentinel01]

Originally Posted by JHikka

We'll have to see where the extra 8K or so is located in NB once the CMA and subdivision numbers are released.

Do you know when that will be?

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by MonctonianSentinel01

Do you know when that will be?

Today's numbers broken down by age/sex are released in December. Usually StatCan release yearly subprovincial area data in February for the previous July, so February 2019 release will be for July 2018.

So, February.

I'm guessing most of the 7K-8K gain will be seen in NB's big three cities but we'll have to see. Depends on where new migrants are moving to within the province. It's likely that the Moncton area sees a decent bump.

[MonctonianSentinel01]

Sounds good, TYVM!

[Bishop2047]

Makes you hope that NB's north has come to a point where the decline is matched by the gains in the south (and actually growing faster than the rural exodus). We all knew this would happen eventually. Hope the trend continues.

I wish the north was more viable but the vastness and the lack of larger centers just makes it very difficult without some sort of resource development.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Bishop2047

Makes you hope that NB's north has come to a point where the decline is matched by the gains in the south (and actually growing faster than the rural exodus). We all knew this would happen eventually. Hope the trend continues.

I think we're at the point where the immigration numbers to the south, along with neutral interprovincial migration numbers, are outpacing the decline in the north. We'll have to wait until the subprovincial numbers are out until we can know for sure.

Originally Posted by Bishop2047

I wish the north was more viable but the vastness and the lack of larger centers just makes it very difficult without some sort of resource development.

What i've said for a long time is that Northern NB's biggest problem is that it isn't especially on the way to anything. It's not between two big centres so nobody just ends up there. It's a very driving-oriented point of view but I think it holds up.

My best example for this is Centre-du-Quebec and the towns of Victoriaville and Drummondville. These two towns are smack dab in the middle between Montreal and Quebec City, and thus become great attractors for businesses and people who need to be in both of the larger cities. Their location is convenient, and for people driving from the Maritimes to Montreal or Toronto they're on your way, too. It makes them viable for stopover spending. You'll end up spending five seconds in one of these towns whether you mean to or not if you're traveling through Quebec.

Northern NB cities and towns don't have this. Nobody just drives through Miramichi or Bathurst on the way to somewhere else, and places like Caraquet and Shippagan are travel dead ends. Edmundston has an advantage because it's on the TCH corridor, and a place like Woodstock is well positioned because of the TCH and because of its location next to Maine/Houlton/Presque Isle. The Acadien Peninsula doesn't have this upside. Working against the Peninsula is that Gaspe is also declining in population, so there isn't even nearby regional population to the north to provide for more regional support population-wise. It's not just Campbellton-Dalhousie declining - it's everything in that area east of Rimouski/Riviere-du-Loup.

This is why towns like Petitcodiac and Salisbury can survive and why places like Rogersville can't. Prime location and being near/on the way to larger centres plays a big role in being a viable rural town in the 21st century.

[q12]

Nova Scotia grew by 10,319 in one year!



https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=1710000901

Maritimes 1,891,681 Q4 2018

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by q12

Nova Scotia grew by 10,319 in one year!



https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=1710000901

Maritimes 1,891,681 Q4 2018

Nice growth all around. Looks like NS grew by about 10k in the year. (edit: I missed that part of the post I quoted. ) So it should break 1M in about 4 years if it can maintain that growth. In 2017 it added about 8k, so the growth seems like it might be sustainable.

New Brunswick is still growing, having added about 4k people each year. Would be nice to see that rate start increasing, but at least we are growing. Still, PEI's growth is at about 3k per year with 1/5 the total population; NB should be growing faster than PEI.

And not surprising at all, no one likes to move in the winter. Very little changes in Q4 to Q1 normally, but lots of people moving in Q3 and Q4.

[MonctonRad]

And NB could break 800,000 in seven years if this growth rate is maintained.

It would be nice if our growth rate were higher, but 800k is a nice psychological barrier, and is a refreshing change given only a short time ago NB had slightly negative growth, and some people were predicting a decline to less than 750k.

The NS growth rate is obviously bolstered by Halifax (the rest of the province is in decline), and Halifax is the economic dynamo of the province. Sometime in the not too distant future, more than half the provincial population will live in Halifax. It will be interesting to see what this will do to the provincial political dynamic when this happens.

[Taeolas]

Another way to look at it. We as a region are 109k away from 2M. If the 3 provinces continue growing at around 17k/year, we as a region will break 2M in 6 or 7 years. A nice 2025 goal if I ever heard one.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Sorry we can't help these numbers.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

And NB could break 800,000 in seven years if this growth rate is maintained.

NB's population has already been readjusted down to 771,746 on the live population clock on StatCan's website. Will need further international immigration and hope that interprovincial migration rates improve. Q3 2018 was the second highest quarter for international immigrants arriving in NB since these numbers began being tracked (only Q1 2016 had more). Interprovincial migration out of NB was noticeably higher in Q3 2018 than Q3 2017.

Likewise, NL is a full 1,000 people fewer on the live clock compared to the numbers released today (524K instead of 525K). Pretty staggering stuff.

[David_99]

Do the population estimates for individual cities come out in February?