HomeDiagramsDatabaseMapsForum About
     

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Regional Sections > Canada


Reply

 
Thread Tools Display Modes
     
     
  #141  
Old Posted Apr 3, 2020, 4:21 PM
esquire's Avatar
esquire esquire is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 37,483
Quote:
Originally Posted by kwoldtimer View Post
I think I've seen estimates that 25% of ALL small businesses will be gone by the time this is over.
I suspect that a lot of those businesses will pop right back up once this is all over with. Obviously cold comfort for business owners who stand to lose, but at the very least, many people will work in their fields again soon.

What will be interesting to see is which big legacy businesses will be gone for good as a result of this - I could see quite a few newspapers, for instance, closing up shop as a result of this. You know that when one of those goes, they are not coming back.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #142  
Old Posted Apr 3, 2020, 4:52 PM
whatnext whatnext is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 22,109
Quote:
Originally Posted by esquire View Post
I suspect that a lot of those businesses will pop right back up once this is all over with. Obviously cold comfort for business owners who stand to lose, but at the very least, many people will work in their fields again soon...
Why on Earth would you be that optimistic? In addition to the immediate hit, Vancouver will essentially not have a tourism industry this summer. The businesses that relied on that trade won't be able to pull through and all the jobs they supported will be gone.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #143  
Old Posted Apr 3, 2020, 4:58 PM
WarrenC12 WarrenC12 is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: East OV!
Posts: 21,617
Quote:
Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
On the plus side, we've saved a bunch of 80 year olds.
Given your logic, why would we bother with healthcare for anyone over 80 in normal times? We'd save a fuckton of money if we just left them to their own devices when they got sick. I suppose we could give them a little painkiller. But certainly let's not waste the time of doctors, nurses, or hospital resources.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #144  
Old Posted Apr 3, 2020, 5:02 PM
esquire's Avatar
esquire esquire is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 37,483
Quote:
Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
Why on Earth would you be that optimistic? In addition to the immediate hit, Vancouver will essentially not have a tourism industry this summer. The businesses that relied on that trade won't be able to pull through and all the jobs they supported will be gone.
At some point the economic hurt will end - I didn't say it would be right away.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #145  
Old Posted Apr 3, 2020, 5:12 PM
whatnext whatnext is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 22,109
Quote:
Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
Given your logic, why would we bother with healthcare for anyone over 80 in normal times? We'd save a fuckton of money if we just left them to their own devices when they got sick. I suppose we could give them a little painkiller. But certainly let's not waste the time of doctors, nurses, or hospital resources.
Because in normal times we don't deprive millions of working-age people of their livelihood and beggar the economy to preserve the lives of the evry elderly.

And after this over, people should absolutely be having the conversation with parents about Medically Assisted Dying in the event they get dementia. Posters have said how awful those senior homes are, but a large part of their population is people with dementia, who can't feed or dress themselves. What kind of life is that?
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #146  
Old Posted Apr 3, 2020, 5:53 PM
jonny24 jonny24 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Hamilton, formerly Norfolk County
Posts: 1,142
Quote:
Originally Posted by Airboy View Post

Also stopped by an Auto body shop this week. they are all down in work load. ( you would think that would still be required but no) the staff said people are waiting because of deductibles.

My Car service shop is limiting bookings as well. and before you get the car back it is wiped down with sanitizer.
I went and got the protective 3M film on the hood of my truck replaced yesterday* and they were absolutely dead- I called that morning and suspect I was the only one in that day. Fairly understandably, most people between limiting exposure and being careful with cash would save that type of work for "after". There are all kinds of small businesses like that that don't get the kind of attention that restaurants etc do in the news that could see a lot of failures.

However, I was relatively surprised that they were open for business, from the lens of "essential business". Mechanical repair shops I fully understand, people are still working and still need vehicles repaired. But this was solely a tint/vinyl/ppf shop. I guess, maybe because they would wrap a new car for a different essential business?

Also, drove by Long and McQuade and they were open! That really blew my mind, unless maybe they just forgot to turn the open sign off?

But if that's open, what is actually closed? To me it seems like a large amount of people are laid off/ reduced hours due to reduced business, but not that many businesses themselves actually shut down?



*there's an argument that doing so was counter to the "stay home unless absolutely necessary" mantra. There were reasons why I chose to do so that aren't part of my point.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #147  
Old Posted Apr 3, 2020, 6:46 PM
Acajack's Avatar
Acajack Acajack is online now
Unapologetic Occidental
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Province 2, Canadian Empire
Posts: 67,772
I recognize there will be extreme personal variability due to whether people are being paid or not, but I am also sensing a very high degree of pent-up demand for a whole bunch of things once we get out of this thing. I can see restaurants, bars and other such places pretty packed for a while and lots of food, drink, etc. sales as people have friends over, organize barbecues, pool parties and weekends at the cottage.

Not sure what kind of legs this boom will have, but for the first little while I'd expect the cash registers to be ringing like crazy.
__________________
Amber alerts welcome at any time
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #148  
Old Posted Apr 3, 2020, 7:06 PM
jonny24 jonny24 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Hamilton, formerly Norfolk County
Posts: 1,142
Quote:
Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
I recognize there will be extreme personal variability due to whether people are being paid or not, but I am also sensing a very high degree of pent-up demand for a whole bunch of things once we get out of this thing. I can see restaurants, bars and other such places pretty packed for a while and lots of food, drink, etc. sales as people have friends over, organize barbecues, pool parties and weekends at the cottage.

Not sure what kind of legs this boom will have, but for the first little while I'd expect the cash registers to be ringing like crazy.
There probably will be some of that, but it kind of depends how gradual the easing-back of restrictions is.

If we had one clear day (what my family has started calling CV Day - Covid Victory) , then it would be a literal party in the streets. But we won't get that, there will be steps, it will "safer" but not "safe", people will still be cautious.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #149  
Old Posted Apr 3, 2020, 7:35 PM
blueandgoldguy blueandgoldguy is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 2,755
Quote:
Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
On the plus side, we've saved a bunch of 80 year olds.
And if we went about our merry ways as before, there would far graver economic consequences for the country.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #150  
Old Posted Apr 3, 2020, 7:52 PM
MonkeyRonin's Avatar
MonkeyRonin MonkeyRonin is online now
¥ ¥ ¥
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 9,872
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonny24 View Post
If we had one clear day (what my family has started calling CV Day - Covid Victory) , then it would be a literal party in the streets. But we won't get that, there will be steps, it will "safer" but not "safe", people will still be cautious.

That's what I was originally thinking of/hoping for. I doubt it'll actually pan out like that though - the more realistic scenario is probably more along the lines of:

Once active cases are on the downswing (in hopefully the next month or so), restrictions on the closure of non-essential businesses will start being lifted and schools will resume, but with many social distancing measures still in place (limits on capacity, more emphasis on hygiene, etc). But large gatherings will still be prohibited, the elderly & vulnerable will be encouraged to isolate, masks & physical separation will be widely used & encouraged, and the borders will still be closed for months to come.

Even if the worst of it is over here by summer, it'll likely still be going around in other parts of the world or at a reduced capacity for quite a while yet; with the ever-present threat of another flare up come fall - if a vaccine isn't developed first. And until an effective treatment or vaccine is discovered, it'll never really be "over".
__________________
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #151  
Old Posted Apr 3, 2020, 8:01 PM
someone123's Avatar
someone123 someone123 is offline
hähnchenbrüstfiletstüc
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 33,677
Quote:
Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin View Post
Once active cases are on the downswing (in hopefully the next month or so), restrictions on the closure of non-essential businesses will start being lifted and schools will resume, but with many social distancing measures still in place (limits on capacity, more emphasis on hygiene, etc). But large gatherings will still be prohibited, the elderly & vulnerable will be encouraged to isolate, masks & physical separation will be widely used & encouraged, and the borders will still be closed for months to come.
One factor that will make things slow is that we don't really know what effect different measures have on transmission. Each change is an experiment and we need to wait for a couple weeks of data in order to gather evidence on what the effect is. Move too quickly and there will be a resurgence that then requires another 4-8 week crackdown.

But I think little things like opening more businesses and parks and people having small private gatherings, etc. are probably very low risk. Only 1 month ago there were still packed international flights from at-risk areas, conferences and concerts happening in Canada with thousands of attendees. That's the context of the initial infection rate that we needed to drop by 1/2 or 2/3.

Another good factor is that, while it will take a long time to reach herd immunity and that may not happen before a vaccine, we will still likely have a lot of known individuals who are resistant or immune. That could be used strategically, e.g. hire coronavirus-resistant people to work in old folks' homes.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #152  
Old Posted Apr 3, 2020, 8:05 PM
whatnext whatnext is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 22,109
Quote:
Originally Posted by someone123 View Post
One factor that will make things slow is that we don't really know what effect different measures have on transmission. Each change is an experiment and we need to wait for a couple weeks of data in order to gather evidence on what the effect is. Move too quickly and there will be a resurgence that then requires another 4-8 week crackdown.

But I think little things like opening more businesses and parks and people having small private gatherings, etc. are probably very low risk. Only 1 month ago there were still packed international flights from at-risk areas, conferences and concerts happening in Canada with thousands of attendees. That's the context of the initial infection rate that we needed to drop by 1/2 or 2/3.
Sooner or later governments are going to have to accept the fatalities. You can't lockdown a western economy for 2+ months without leaving a smoking hole where your economy used to be.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #153  
Old Posted Apr 3, 2020, 8:19 PM
theman23's Avatar
theman23 theman23 is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Ville de Québec
Posts: 5,142
Quote:
Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
I recognize there will be extreme personal variability due to whether people are being paid or not, but I am also sensing a very high degree of pent-up demand for a whole bunch of things once we get out of this thing. I can see restaurants, bars and other such places pretty packed for a while and lots of food, drink, etc. sales as people have friends over, organize barbecues, pool parties and weekends at the cottage.

Not sure what kind of legs this boom will have, but for the first little while I'd expect the cash registers to be ringing like crazy.
That's not how this is going to play out. There will be a graduated return to normalcy over months/years, and even then peoples habits will have changed after this.
__________________
For entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #154  
Old Posted Apr 3, 2020, 8:23 PM
someone123's Avatar
someone123 someone123 is offline
hähnchenbrüstfiletstüc
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 33,677
Quote:
Originally Posted by theman23 View Post
That's not how this is going to play out. There will be a graduated return to normalcy over months/years, and even then peoples habits will have changed after this.
There will be so much economic damage that people won't have as much money to go out and pile into bars or buy nice meals in restaurants even if they feel comfortable doing that.

One estimate I saw was -34% annualized GDP for the US for this quarter and then +19% annualized either the next quarter or the one after that. So a rebound but not enough to make up for the real loss of productivity. I think that prediction was made a while ago when the US seemed like it was doing better than it is now. There will be years of ripple effects as governments cut back to lessen the deficits and pay off debt.

I could see North America's median living standard in 2022 being worse than it was in 2007. Aside from the higher earners, most people have not been doing well even in the supposedly good economic times. We are lurching from economic crisis to economic crisis with most people treading water in between.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #155  
Old Posted Apr 13, 2020, 1:31 PM
LakeLocker LakeLocker is offline
BANNED
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: London ON
Posts: 1,848
Quote:
Originally Posted by someone123 View Post
There will be so much economic damage that people won't have as much money to go out and pile into bars or buy nice meals in restaurants even if they feel comfortable doing that.

One estimate I saw was -34% annualized GDP for the US for this quarter and then +19% annualized either the next quarter or the one after that. So a rebound but not enough to make up for the real loss of productivity. I think that prediction was made a while ago when the US seemed like it was doing better than it is now. There will be years of ripple effects as governments cut back to lessen the deficits and pay off debt.

I could see North America's median living standard in 2022 being worse than it was in 2007. Aside from the higher earners, most people have not been doing well even in the supposedly good economic times. We are lurching from economic crisis to economic crisis with most people treading water in between.
It's bizarre how people think we can just rebound after this.

If you were working at 100 percent before this how on Earth are you able to make up for many months of unproductivity in the last 3-4 months of the year.

Regardless I'm a doomer who expects a depression to be imminent when people realize that we may not even get a vaccine in 2021.


My mind is now on how can we completely rework our service industry.


Taking a hockey arena as an example.


Can we completely rework crowd flow/control so that people won't come in contact with eachother.

If you have an Arena that currently fits 20,000 people can we convert that arena into 4-5 thousand box seats?

Current Arenas are too crowded but I wonder how much work it'd take to make it so that people are never crossing paths.

This included people going to bathrooms at scheduled times, entering arenas at scheduled times, being serve drinks at your seat, etc etc.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #156  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2020, 12:25 PM
Acajack's Avatar
Acajack Acajack is online now
Unapologetic Occidental
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Province 2, Canadian Empire
Posts: 67,772
Quote:
Originally Posted by kwoldtimer View Post
One only occasionally reads about a stunt driving charge. I believe that this is quite unusual, but don't really know. Over in WRC, forummers have been commenting about the uptick in speeding/stunt driving that they've been seeing down there.
Out on my daily walk this morning and witnessed a dummy in a small car whipping through the parking lot of an apartment complex. Turning corners so fast he was kicking up clouds of dust.

On a normal Thursday morning that area would have been full of kids as it's about a 2-minute walk from an elementary school.

Typical "driving like you expect no one else to be around".
__________________
Amber alerts welcome at any time
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #157  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2020, 6:00 PM
isaidso isaidso is offline
The New Republic
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: United Provinces of America
Posts: 10,793
Quote:
Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
Out on my daily walk this morning and witnessed a dummy in a small car whipping through the parking lot of an apartment complex. Turning corners so fast he was kicking up clouds of dust.

On a normal Thursday morning that area would have been full of kids as it's about a 2-minute walk from an elementary school.

Typical "driving like you expect no one else to be around".
When I go grocery shopping I notice a few people who think the rules just don't apply to them. 99% of the population are doing as asked. It creates empty streets so the other 1% think it gives them license to not do the same. If everyone thought like them the streets wouldn't be empty.

There will always be people looking for loopholes and/or taking advantage of a situation so they don't have to follow the rules. They're let's help 'spike the curve' people. They don't view themselves that way of course.
__________________
World's First Documented Baseball Game: Beachville, Ontario, June 4th, 1838.
World's First Documented Gridiron Game: University College, Toronto, November 9th, 1861.
Hamilton Tiger-Cats since 1869 & Toronto Argonauts since 1873: North America's 2 oldest pro football teams
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #158  
Old Posted May 1, 2020, 12:42 PM
Acajack's Avatar
Acajack Acajack is online now
Unapologetic Occidental
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Province 2, Canadian Empire
Posts: 67,772
Big surprise.

Montreal police reporting a signficant increase in break-ins targeting retail businesses.

Residential break-ins have plummeted.
__________________
Amber alerts welcome at any time
Reply With Quote
     
     
End
 
 
Reply

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Regional Sections > Canada
Forum Jump


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 8:20 PM.

     
SkyscraperPage.com - Archive - Privacy Statement - Top

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.