Retail Chains Abandon Manhattan: ‘It’s Unsustainable’

[glowrock]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

I think there is a very myopic view among many about what is happening. Reality is, there is zero about what is happening that is “good”. Yes, some chains will be gone forever but will they be replaced by anything at all? And what about the smaller businesses that got wiped out? The only real beneficiary here is Amazon.....and is that the world we really want?

The “work from home while still getting paid” class just doesn’t get it. Without financial stability these assets fall into disrepair and it happens fast. And if the property owner goes into distress (very likely) and these buildings are seized by banks, we’re in for a world of hurt.

I’LL take the Red Lobster in Times Square over this any day of the week.

I agree, tup. The only, and I mean ONLY winner here is Jeff Bezos. Say helll to your almighty Leader! World's first TRILLIONAIRE! All bow down to Bezos!

Aaron (Glowrock)

[chris08876]

Its an ecosystem. Life and death. Businesses, communities, will recover in some form or another. It would actually be of benefit going forward for some cities to make it ideal to start a business via their business culture. Are they a good place to say start a restaurant or a bar or a specialty store, ect..

On a side note, the day of reckoning for Amazon and other Tech organizations is coming. Dismantling/preventing free market interference.

[chris08876]

People will get through this. Society, the world, will get through this. Everyone focuses on the short term. Look towards the long term. A lot can happen in a dynamic universe. For all we know, Yellowstone could erupt one day and decimate the U.S. or a nearby gamma ray burst could run right through Earth at the speed of light killing billions. Our issues are trivial. Fun fact, we have no control over that... so it might possibly humble folks to know that our death may come at any second.

Manhattan will adapt, cities will adapt, evolve (in some cases regress, but that's a different topic), and the dynamics of Earth and its multi-cellular organism with consciousness will move on in some way or another.

While what is happening is not good, it is not the end of the world. Everyone needs to sit back, and relax. Take a deep breath, and stop focusing so much and stressing on the acute moment. This virus, the purge... is just one of many purges. More will come. Hopefully, and if there is a win out of all this, are the lessons to be learned. If we learn nothing about the lessons that nature has taught us, which this is a lesson, as nature is always a hard teacher... now that would be a shame. If we learned nothing.

In hindsight, that's what nature is good for. For making us realize how inane and myopic our perceived problems really are. It can throw something nano meters is size at us, and fundamentally change how we act and think. That is power.... that is showing us that we are not in control, but nature is.

[EastSideHBG]

I can never understand the desire for chains to close down and be wiped out, as they are jobs (and an occupied space with paying tenants). They may not be the specific jobs you want to see but they are jobs nonetheless and with each closure comes more people looking for work. "Let there be Mom & Pop stores everywhere and at all times," is just not realistic and would have its downsides as well.

There's some troubling signs here in Philly. WaWa, a company that basically screams Philly, is closing its flagship store in Center City after five years. From big chains to small businesses many boarded up due to COVID-19 and some that removed the boards when they were able to were destroyed by looting so others just re-boarded or saw that and never took theirs down. Will all be able to reopen? Will they want to reopen? Anyone's guess at this point but logic says we will be losing a healthy chunk of businesses.

The high real estate costs, COVID-19, constant protests (even peaceful ones are a huge disruption to daily life), looting and places being set on fire...people are really looking hard at the, "Is this really worth it?" factor. City life is cool because you can walk to things and dine at fancy restaurants and all of that but what happens when none of that is available?

Originally Posted by the urban politician

I think there is a very myopic view among many about what is happening. Reality is, there is zero about what is happening that is “good”. Yes, some chains will be gone forever but will they be replaced by anything at all? And what about the smaller businesses that got wiped out? The only real beneficiary here is Amazon.....and is that the world we really want?

The “work from home while still getting paid” class just doesn’t get it. Without financial stability these assets fall into disrepair and it happens fast. And if the property owner goes into distress (very likely) and these buildings are seized by banks, we’re in for a world of hurt.

I’LL take the Red Lobster in Times Square over this any day of the week.

Amen! I hear so much rhetoric from the people locked safely in their homes and still getting their paychecks and many are completely out of touch with reality.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by glowrock

I agree, tup. The only, and I mean ONLY winner here is Jeff Bezos. Say helll to your almighty Leader! World's first TRILLIONAIRE! All bow down to Bezos!

Aaron (Glowrock)

uuuuuggh. went downstairs to pick up a package, came back up to read this. today i'm part of the problem.

[homebucket]

I'm not sure why everyone is hating on Amazon. They provide a wide selection of products at affordable prices and offer convenient delivery services. If Jeff Bezos hadn't done it, someone else would've. What's there to complain about?

[floor23]

Cities will recover in the long-term, however I think there will be a lot of pain over the next 5-10 years. The notion that things will return to normal once a vaccine hits the market is overly optimistic. I've seen a wide variety of potential vaccine prices in the news, but unless its dirt cheap and has a long duration, I fail to see how people that are unemployed or employed in a job that doesn't offer health care are going to be able to afford it. Considering the vast majority of Americans have not contracted COVID, it seems unlikely that restrictions in cities will be lifted until the vast majority of people are vaccinated which is going to take a couple years at least.

One thing to also consider is that most cities public finances have been decimated and most of their capital and operating budgets were based on inflated tax revenue growth estimates (even far-fetched prior to COVID). Even if the FEDS bail out the cities, they will still need to raise taxes and seeing the anti-rich and anti-business sentiment being spewed in major metropolitan areas such as NYC, its likely that many leave the city or limit their activity there to avoid taxation. Work from home is also going to stay though it will probably be a hybrid of 3 to 4 days in office. If every office worker in Manhattan spent 1-2 less day in the city, how would that affect the overall economy? (On the bright side it could ease up traffic and congestion which would be a bonus in quality of life)

[maru2501]

I'd say at least two or three years, yes. And you can tell that's what the real estate titans think as well.. which is what I think of these days when I see cranes on 500+ foot buildings that are U/C in Chi (let alone NYC)

they are betting on cities are aren't planning to leave them empty

I do wonder what interior changes covid might be producing

[dc_denizen]

Originally Posted by homebucket

I'm not sure why everyone is hating on Amazon. They provide a wide selection of products at affordable prices and offer convenient delivery services. If Jeff Bezos hadn't done it, someone else would've. What's there to complain about?

they destroy small businesses, copying and forcing small producers out of business

[Qubert]

Originally Posted by floor23

Cities will recover in the long-term, however I think there will be a lot of pain over the next 5-10 years. The notion that things will return to normal once a vaccine hits the market is overly optimistic. I've seen a wide variety of potential vaccine prices in the news, but unless its dirt cheap and has a long duration, I fail to see how people that are unemployed or employed in a job that doesn't offer health care are going to be able to afford it. Considering the vast majority of Americans have not contracted COVID, it seems unlikely that restrictions in cities will be lifted until the vast majority of people are vaccinated which is going to take a couple years at least.

One thing to also consider is that most cities public finances have been decimated and most of their capital and operating budgets were based on inflated tax revenue growth estimates (even far-fetched prior to COVID). Even if the FEDS bail out the cities, they will still need to raise taxes and seeing the anti-rich and anti-business sentiment being spewed in major metropolitan areas such as NYC, its likely that many leave the city or limit their activity there to avoid taxation. Work from home is also going to stay though it will probably be a hybrid of 3 to 4 days in office. If every office worker in Manhattan spent 1-2 less day in the city, how would that affect the overall economy? (On the bright side it could ease up traffic and congestion which would be a bonus in quality of life)

Western nations are not going to allow any effective COVID vaccine to be limited based on economics. Between the racial undertones that would inevitably result in here in the US as well as the fact that the modern economy basically requires everyone to be vaccinated Congress will pay for it, especially if/when 45 is gone.

The far bigger issue is outlined in your second paragraph. If cities like Seattle/Minneapolis really do stick to their words (TBD) then it's going to be an interesting case study on where cities go from here. The fact is that urban areas simply cannot survive a total collapse of law and order. Cities are built around public spaces and human interaction, and if we go back to kids wilding in Central Park, broad daylight muggings and open drug use we are going to in fact see the end of urban investment.

One hopeful spot is that with the fat times over, cities will in fact have no choice but to embrace business/development friendly policies if only to keep the train moving. I know here in the Big Apple everyone is waiting on the feds but even if they came through the city will be digging through holes for years to come...

[chris08876]

Originally Posted by homebucket

I'm not sure why everyone is hating on Amazon. They provide a wide selection of products at affordable prices and offer convenient delivery services. If Jeff Bezos hadn't done it, someone else would've. What's there to complain about?

Folks that own stores do, unless they are working side-by-side, such as e-commerce with a client like Amazon (3PL or supply-chain distributors).

Part of the conversation steers towards monopoly, I think that's why folks are eerie of Amazon. Its not a monopoly, yet... but it surely can be unless its put in check.

Same concept on why folks hate Wal Mart. Not so much the product line or prices for consumers, but for the competitive advantage it has over local businesses, which can be a boon for them.

On a side note, just a Friday public announcement, avoid Walmart chicken. Just had to get that out there. Walmart chicken sucks!

[bnk]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

they destroy small businesses, copying and forcing small producers out of business

Also Amazon like the sells a lot of Chinese products. I do not know the percentage but I can look it up later and tell at a later date.

Not unlike how Walmart started out used to made in the USA store.

Good luck anything in Walmart is made in the USA. Lot's of foumers here never even knew that they sold majority American made products until the oldest Walton died and the Board of Directors out sourced almost everything to China exclusively in the late 80's.


Back than the wage of a Chinese worker was about the same as a slave worker in China.


The pay has increased enough to move out of China and use the rest in the Americas, hopefully and the majority in SE Asia, Esp India. The USA and India need to be tided very closely, even more closely with feeding aid to their military because of multiple boarder disputes with India sometimes thousands of miles away.


China is looking to take the whole of the south China sea for military and fishing rights away from Veitnam and The Philipines all the way to Tiwan and parts of Japonese islands.


They want to have that broad space covered from any sea attack from the south and they have supposedly Aircraft killer anti Ship Missels extremely fast, fast enough to not be able to intercept them.


So We are in a second cold war

But this adversary also has us by the nuts because they can sell at loss important finished products like steel and aluminium that we lost the art of making because they were big CO2 producers.


So the Gaias sent those jobs to China.

We just export the raw materials to get back an inferier product that should have been made at home.


Shipping Iron ore and Buxite ore to China many thousands of miles away to

appease the leftist greens only made it more carbon intensive.


BTW most of these ships use heavy fuel oil that pollutes a hell of a lot [ Bunker oil in particular ]

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by homebucket

I'm not sure why everyone is hating on Amazon. They provide a wide selection of products at affordable prices and offer convenient delivery services. If Jeff Bezos hadn't done it, someone else would've. What's there to complain about?

Actually I'm a long-time Prime subscriber and I'm hating on them because during the COVID epidemic they have been price-gouging like nobody would believe ($200 rolls of toilet paper anyone?) and they are out of stock of most items people really want. I have found myself checking Walmart.com and Target.com before Amazon for almost everything and rarely buying from Amazon any more.

Mostly it's their decsion to become a bazaar for many unaffilitated merchants. many selling counterfeit goods and/or over-priced goods that's the problem. But Amazon itself has also jacked up prices to the point where, even after paying for shipping when you have to do that, it may be cheaper to buy elsewhere.

Will We Forgive Amazon When This Is Over?
By Christopher Mims
Updated April 14, 2020 10:51 am ET

It’s by now something like accepted wisdom that Amazon. AMZN.com Inc. could be one of the few firms to come out ahead in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. But all is far from well in the kingdom of Bezos. At a defining moment for the company, it is letting customers down.

True, all retailers are under enormous strain, and the Amazon boxes keep arriving. But the promise to ship anything to our doorstep in a day or two that has gained it the trust of an astonishing 112 million Prime members in the U.S. (a nation of 129 million households) has evaporated nearly overnight.

Weeks into America’s national experiment in only going to the store when absolutely necessary, it feels like Amazon is little better than any other retailer at getting us what we need, when we need it.

Every part of the company’s sprawling empire—from its eponymous e-commerce operation and its considerable physical retail to its market-dominating cloud services—is being tested. The fact that Amazon’s retail operations are functioning at all is a testament to the flexibility of the company’s infrastructure during a health crisis that few if any companies were prepared for.

But the crisis is laying bare the cracks in Amazon’s ability to be there for its customers when they need it most, much less to “delight” them, as Chief Executive Jeff Bezos once urged his employees to do. Those cracks include times when up to half the workers in some of the company’s facilities haven’t shown up, with some saying it was due to their fear they wouldn’t be adequately protected from coronavirus. It’s also due to Amazon’s just-in-time supply chain, reliance on third-party sellers and largely automated systems of buying and selling that were never designed to handle such a crisis.

When parrying claims that it’s a monopolist, Amazon often cites statistics that show that the proportion of retail sales that happen online remains low. According to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, e-commerce is 16% of all retail. With stores closed and delivery the only safe option for many vulnerable people, it’s clear that proportion will spike in the coming months. Reports from employees and analysts indicate volumes in Amazon’s warehouses are on par with seasonal surges around the holidays. Market-research firm CommerceIQ reported sales of toilet paper are up 186%, while cough and cold medicine sales are up 862%.

While demand for those products remains high, Amazon shoppers are unable to get many of the essential products the company says it’s prioritizing now. My search for toilet paper on Amazon yielded a jumbo 700-foot roll of commercial toilet paper in the first slot. In the second? A baffling block of text in lieu of a product image, stating that customers ordering this product after April 6 won’t receive it, so they shouldn’t bother. And everything considered nonessential takes more time than the two days Amazon conditioned us to expect . . . .

https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-we...er-11586577604

My personal answer is, "No."

On the other hand, I am no slavish supporter of Mom & Pop either when their prices are out of line and their stock is inadequate. I live in a city where "chain" retail is banned in large swaths of town. I am used to seeing all sorts of things from cat litter to basic food stuffs priced at twice what Walmart charges and that causes me to order from Walmart which, compared to Amazon, is doing a great job (and Target is even better).

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by bnk

Also Amazon like the sells a lot of Chinese products. I do not know the percentage but I can look it up later and tell at a later date.

Amazon largely isn't selling these products. It's their affiliated merchants--the ones in their "Marketplace" rather than Amazon itself. They should never have opened the site up to these fly-by-night outfits.

[homebucket]

Let's be honest. Everyone was or still is price gouging, not just Amazon. There are still plenty of small businesses still operating and flourishing (pre-pandemic at least), so I doth not purchase that Amazon has killed off small businesses. Increased competition? Sure. But not killed off. Some of them even sell on Amazon, or Etsy, or whatever online platform they choose. At the end of the day, as a consumer, I have more options. If I want the advice of a merchant at my local bike shop or fishing gear and tackle shop, I'm going to go there and am willing to pay a higher price for the customer service. I'm all about supporting local small businesses when you can. But if I just need a simple cheap part that I don't necessarily need expert opinion on, I'm going to go with Amazon.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by homebucket

Let's be honest. Everyone was or still is price gouging, not just Amazon. . . . if I just need a simple cheap part that I don't necessarily need exspert opinion on, I'm going to go with Amazon.

No EVERYBODY is not price gouging like the folks on Amazon Marketplace are. Unfortunately, Walmart.com (Target has so far resisted) is also going the Marketplace route where you will find absurd prices for scarce items, but Walmart itself has NOT raised prices either in its stores or on the items it sells itself on its web site.

I'll say again, if you are only looking for that part on Amazon these days, you may be "paying too much" to quote a shoe chain ad.

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

No EVERYBODY is not price gouging like the folks on Amazon Marketplace are. Unfortunately, Walmart.com (Target has so far resisted) is also going the Marketplace route where you will find absurd prices for scarce items, but Walmart itself has NOT raised prices either in its stores or on the items it sells itself on its web site.

I'll say again, if you are only looking for that part on Amazon these days, you may be "paying too much" to quote a shoe chain ad.

I don't shop at that those places often, so I wouldn't know. But as you probably know, there aren't many in SF. I'm referring to the local convenient stores. Toilet paper, hand sanitizer wipes, etc were marked up there as well. Not as crazy as Amazon, but still considered price gouging.

[maru2501]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...r-changed.html

This is a little too doomsday for me. I think cities, especially NYC, will remain as places of collaboration and culture. It's not all about zoom meetings. Chicago and LA, too.

Maybe there's a smaller size of city out there that's actually more at risk than the really big ones.

[the urban politician]

^ Definitely doomsday. Our big cities (NYC, SF, LA, Chicago, a few others) are simply "too big to fail". Sorta like a bank.

The sheer volume of dollars, culture, importance invested in these cities is so vast that it's in society's interest to keep them around. Sure they can hit hard times, but we're not suddenly going to abandon Manhattan or downtown Chicago.

However, what I do see happening is a slight shift in inertia, as I had mentioned elsewhere. Cities had all of the momentum prior to 2020, with suburbs in the doldrums. Even after we recover from COVID, that picture will be a tad bit more blended. Cities will rebound, but they will not be the only game in town any more. Suburbs will regain a new life which I think will be sustained, particularly the suburbs that adapt to newer living preferences.

[Acajack]

Yes, that article was perhaps a bit too alarmist but all the stories about people and businesses leaving inner cities are too numerous to ignore.

I agree with TUP that the major cities of the U.S. are too important to fail, but there is a serious risk (likelihood?) that they won't be as interesting, fun and pleasant as many of them had come to be during the renaissance of the past couple of decades.

NYC is a 7.5 hour drive from where I live, and my wife and kids and I just love going there. (I got to know the city in the late 80s BTW. It was pretty different from the NYC of 2019.)

It already saddens me that we probably won't be able to go for a while, and that when we do finally go again even under a best-case scenario it will probably still be a wounded, damaged place compared to the one we knew before.