Australia, Canada, UK in 2100

[isaidso]

Australia, Canada, UK in 2100

Demographically, economically, militarily, and culturally the UK is larger/stronger than the other 2 but the other 2 have more momentum. Lots can change in 80 years so this is more an interesting, theoretical exercise than a forecast or prediction. The US, of course, surpassed its former colonial ruler a century ago. Will Australia and/or Canada eventually do the same? One could make a strong argument for all 3 countries. I suspect there won't be much separating them. Will Brexit, climate change, and/or COVID-19 factor heavily?

Likewise, the same thing is playing out in regards to the premier city in each: Melbourne, Toronto, and London. I know Sydney is still Australia's largest but going forward it will surely be Melbourne. Unfathomable today, but will London still be largest at the turn of the century? Toronto and Melbourne have much stronger growth rates and they've been growing rapidly for decades. While London slows down, the other 2 will likely grow even faster than they are today. I'll post some data on the first metric: demography.


DEMOGRAPHY

Population 1991
Australia: 17,284,036 (30.1% of UK, 61.7% of Canada)
Canada: 28,031,000 (48.8% of UK)
UK: 57,439,000

Population 2001
Australia: 18,769,249 (31.8% of UK; 60.5% of Canada)
Canada: 31,021,000 (52.5% of UK)
UK: 59,113,000

Population 2011
Australia: 21,507,717 (34.0% of UK; 62.4% of Canada)
Canada: 34,484,000 (54.6% of UK)
UK: 63,182,000

Population 2021 Estimate
Australia: 26,400,000 (39.1% of UK; 67.9% of Canada)
Canada: 38,900,000 (57.6% of UK)
UK: 67,500,000

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_Australia
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-of-australia/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Canada
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demogr...United_Kingdom


Population 1991
Melbourne: 3,195,000 (32.0% of London; 67.5% of Toronto)
Toronto: 4,735,483 (47.4% of London)
London: 10,000,000 ?

Population 2001
Melbourne: 3,375,000 (32.4% of London; 60.6% of Toronto)
Toronto: 5,572,104 (53.5% of London)
London: 10 420 794

Population 2011
Melbourne: 4,013,000 (34.9% of London; 61.0% of Toronto)
Toronto: 6,574,140 (57.1% of London)
London: 11 507 490

Population 2021 Estimate
Melbourne: 5,061,000 (39.9% of London; 63.4% of Toronto)
Toronto: 7,980,000 (62.8% of London)
London: 12,700,000

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/2...rne/population
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Toronto
https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=CITIES#

[iheartthed]

Will the U.K. even exist in 2100?

[Yuri]

London hasn't slowed down. In fact, they've registered the strongest growth in the past two decades since the early 20th century. And ditto for Britain, whose population grew from 53 million (1961) to 57 million (1991) and then accelerated to reach 67 million (2021).

Moreover, this 12 million figure for London is not comparable with this 8 million people Toronto. According to citypopulation, London urban area has 14.2 million (2018 estimates).

And about 2100, everything can happen. Demographically, for whole countries, anything past 2050 is just a guess. For metro areas, even less.

[Crawford]

What does it matter? Everyone reading this thread will be dead.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Will Canada?

80 years is a long fucking time for those Quebec separatists to get their shit together.

They might add a few provinces if our country keeps going the way it is, lol.

[Dariusb]

Originally Posted by Crawford

What does it matter? Everyone reading this thread will be dead.

This made me laugh but true.

[dc_denizen]

CBC News, May 9, 2100, Vancouver

Residents of Vancouver Island woke up to increased military presence today as the autonomous island's Chinese garrison was expanded by another 10,000 troops, making good on Supreme Leader Pengs promise to firmly extend the jurisdiction of occupation forces from Chinese-owned resource extraction zones in the Canadian arctic to Chinese-majority population centers in the south of the country. As troop transports landed , blaring patriotic mandarin-language music, the aircraft carrier 'Premier Xi' , China's 42nd , stood at anchor in the strait and 'Long March' rockets thundered overhead. Victoria's airport was swiftly brought under control as Canadian forces offered no resistance.

Reaction from Toronto was swift. Prime Minister Fidel Trudeau (they/them) addressed the nation, seeking to assauge fears that Chinese actions would threaten the nation's real estate sector or trade relationship with the CPC. He also reminded Canadians of their country's long history of anti-Chinese racist policies. 'Before we react with feelings of hostility, let's remember the Chinese workers that toiled to build the trans-canada railroad in 1870. We really have no right to criticize what China is doing or impede Chinas Peaceful Rise'.

Meanwhile Vancouver's Mayor welcomed the action and praised the security measures , saying that the federal government had long since lost jurisdiction over the region, and that china was merely stepping into a power vacuum. 'To Supreme Leader Peng, I say to you, welcome back to Vancouver'. It's widely believe that the Supreme Leader owns a condo on Robeson street and a large house in Richmond, where his children are currently living as the attend the mandarin-language Norman Bethune Academy, the city's largest and most prestigious private high school. Last year he attended the Vancouver premier of 'Victory against the Capitalist Running Dogs ', the Chinese epic blockbuster about the Korean war that was filmed in in different locations across British Columbia.

According to John Peterson (he/him), analyst at the Trump Institute for Security Research in Washington DC, Chinas actions follow a successful template already established five years ago during the occupation of western Australia , and New Zealand twenty years ago. 'The Chinese found that the political and economic networks established between China and these countries over the past 100 years have really eroded social cohesion and attachment to the central government. This, coupled with the socioeconomic conflicts, technological distractions, fake news, and extreme inequalities that have arisen in western countries over the past 7 decades, have rendered resistance to China's measures quite difficult politically'.


Asked for comment, American President-Emperor Donald Kushner III downplayed the move. 'This is purely a domestic matter for Canada, and any Chinese actions are not our business'. Critics in Washington believe Kushner III's muted reaction is driven by the USA's hopes to return to the international credit markets, after last years $100 trillion default, the third of the last 50 years. Doing so, will require the good will and support of the Chinese government and its numerous clients states around the world.

'This is a pure example of realpolitik in action', Peterson says. 'There can be no economic recovery in America if the Chinese continue to lock the US out of world capital markets, so anything goes where China's military expansionism is concerned'.

Analysts speculate the Kushner III may be worried about similar actions against Pacific northwest cities.

In Europe, the news was relegated to the back pages of Le Monde, Der Spiegel, and the China-Europe Friendship Daily. Speaking to reporters from Berlin, EU President Hermann called upon both sides to exercise restraint. 'We cannot let this matter interfere with trade relationships. Sales of German cars, trains and machinery to China are at record highs. this is a matter between two sovereign governments.

As for London, Mayor Patel was dismissive of reporters questions asking for a reaction to the news. 'Thanks to Chinese investments, the last century has been a prosperous one in the London Free State. Chinese tourists power our economy, and constitute the largest visible minority in the Free State as well holding a majority of our city's Board of Managers. The Chinese surely can be given the benefit of the doubt in this internal matter. Without their capital, we would look like England.

[ThePhun1]

Originally Posted by Dariusb

This made me laugh but true.

You're saying I can't live to be 113 or that this thread has no twenty-somethings or younger?

(I'm just being smart and technical, it's rhetorical).

[M II A II R II K]

Perhaps they’ll get additional sub forums here.

[The North One]

Obviously climate change will ruin cities like London and Melbourne by that time. So I guess Toronto wins.

[The North One]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Will the U.K. even exist in 2100?

Will the US? we could easily split apart in that time frame.

[Dariusb]

Originally Posted by ThePhun1

You're saying I can't live to be 113 or that this thread has no twenty-somethings or younger?

(I'm just being smart and technical, it's rhetorical).

Lol and I'd be 122. I'd be a living encyclopedia/history book.

[MolsonExport]

What about Jacksonville in comparison to Toronto, in 2100?

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by The North One

Obviously climate change will ruin cities like London and Melbourne by that time. So I guess Toronto wins.

Both Melbourne and London seem amenable to seawalls. London already has one, although it may need to be upgraded by 2100:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Barrier

[tayser]

Originally Posted by isaidso

Australia, Canada, UK in 2100

Demographically, economically, militarily, and culturally the UK is larger/stronger than the other 2 but the other 2 have more momentum. Lots can change in 80 years so this is more an interesting, theoretical exercise than a forecast or prediction. The US, of course, surpassed its former colonial ruler a century ago. Will Australia and/or Canada eventually do the same? One could make a strong argument for all 3 countries. I suspect there won't be much separating them. Will Brexit, climate change, and/or COVID-19 factor heavily?

Likewise, the same thing is playing out in regards to the premier city in each: Melbourne, Toronto, and London. I know Sydney is still Australia's largest but going forward it will surely be Melbourne. Unfathomable today, but will London still be largest at the turn of the century? Toronto and Melbourne have much stronger growth rates and they've been growing rapidly for decades. While London slows down, the other 2 will likely grow even faster than they are today. I'll post some data on the first metric: demography.

Quite heroic on your comments re: Melbourne / prime city / etc. I wouldn't be so sure because I think Australia won't follow the UK and perhaps Canada down the path with an eventual winner-takes-all city versus clear and distinct tiers.

*treads carefully around the years worth of Ontario/Québec shitfights on here and elsewhere*

but

it's fairly safe to say the Toronto/Montréal dynamic is similar to Sydney/Melbourne but Toronto tends to dominate (mostly) the rest of Canada in a way that Sydney doesn't do here and nor will Melbourne should the population grow larger than Sydney like in all the pre-corona ABS forecasts.

London shits on all the other UK cities from a great height (like Paris does to the rest of the smaller cities in metropolitan France). Australia's top tier cities are more akin to Spain: Madrid and Barcelona on relatively the same level, Milan and Rome in Italy - no singularly dominant city (political, cultural, economic spheres).

From my very subjective take on things, it's a bit blurred in Canada and is somewhere half way between where Sydney/Melbourne and London/versus the rest of the UK are at.

The dynamics between New South Wales and Victoria are similar to Ontario and Québec (1st and 2nd largest state/province in each country, therefore the largest concentrations of the entire country's people are in these areas - with national capitals on the boundary or near the boundary of both jurisdictions in CA and AU) and it's not heroic to say that it's very unlikely another region/state will take over the current role that NSW/VIC and ON/QC fulfil.

Ever since Melbourne came along, it and Sydney have always been backwards and forwards - we've never really seen what's happened by Toronto pulling away from Montréal over the past 40-50 years.

$0.02

But anyhow - fun fact: the population of Canada (38 mil), Australia (25 mil) and New Zealand (5 mil) is basically the same as the entire UK (67 mil) right now.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

London hasn't slowed down. In fact, they've registered the strongest growth in the past two decades since the early 20th century. And ditto for Britain, whose population grew from 53 million (1961) to 57 million (1991) and then accelerated to reach 67 million (2021).

And lost in all that is what's happened the last 2-3 years. I know you like 'citypopulation' as a resource but their data isn't very good imo. Britain's 'Office for National Statistics' is the most important and trustworthy source when it comes to British demographic data. What their data says and conclusions they reach are what matter. This is what they say: "The UK’s population continues to grow, but at a slower rate than previously" - Office for National Statistics

British demographic data clearly show that UK and London population growth is slowing.... and by quite a bit. There's lots of discussion on SSC saying exactly the same thing. Here's what Jonesey55 posted, and I know you know who he is. He used Greater London but it also shows that Southeast England grew even slower. London (+53,908) and Southeast England (+46,510) combined 'only' added 100,418. That's a HUGE drop from just a few years ago.


Population growth by region

Northwest England +0.67% (+49,103)
East Midlands +0.66% (+31,779)
Northern Ireland +0.64% (+12,026)
London +0.61% (+53,908)
West Midlands +0.56% (+33,280)
East England +0.56% (+34,858)
Southeast England +0.51% (+46,510)
Scotland +0.46% (+25,200)
Wales +0.45% (+14,248)
Northeast England +0.45% (+12,032)
Southwest England +0.45% (+24,961)
Yorkshire and Humber +0.43% (+23,352)


London Population Growth Rates

2019 +0.61%
2018 +0.94%
2017 +0.63%
2016 +1.19%
2015 +1.49%
2014 +1.45%
2013 +1.31%
2012 +1.27%
2011 +1.77%
2010 +1.50%
2009 +1.67%


https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...ion/august2019

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by tayser

Quite heroic on your comments re: Melbourne / prime city / etc. I wouldn't be so sure because I think Australia won't follow the UK and perhaps Canada down the path with an eventual winner-takes-all city versus clear and distinct tiers.

Thank you but for the sake of discussion a snap shot of the top metro from each made sense. I'm not suggesting that Melbourne will leave all other Australian metros behind. If anything, it might end up being a 3 horse race by 2050. I wouldn't be surprised to see Brisbane - Gold Coast together start adding more people than Sydney and pull a lot closer than it is today.

Originally Posted by tayser

it's fairly safe to say the Toronto/Montréal dynamic is similar to Sydney/Melbourne but Toronto tends to dominate (mostly) the rest of Canada in a way that Sydney doesn't do here and nor will Melbourne should the population grow larger than Sydney like in all the pre-corona ABS forecasts.

London shits on all the other UK cities from a great height (like Paris does to the rest of the smaller cities in metropolitan France). Australia's top tier cities are more akin to Spain: Madrid and Barcelona on relatively the same level, Milan and Rome in Italy - no singularly dominant city (political, cultural, economic spheres).

Agree 100%. Montreal (4.4 million) and Toronto used to be rivals but the latter has pulled too far ahead at this point. Greater Toronto - Hamilton is at 7.8 million today while the region is at 9.7 million. If a rival to Toronto eventually emerges it will surely be in Western Canada, but who? Vancouver/Lower Mainland (3 million) looks more likely to develop into an enclave for the wealth than a big global alpha city. Calgary is a more likely candidate but it's so far behind it's unfathomable that it could grow into a counter balance to Toronto any time soon. I much prefer the Australian situation with 2 metros quite similar in size.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by isaidso

And lost in all that is what's happened the last 2-3 years. I know you like 'citypopulation' as a resource but their data isn't very good imo. Britain's 'Office for National Statistics' is the most important and trustworthy source when it comes to British demographic data. What their data says and conclusions they reach are what matter. This is what they say: "The UK’s population continues to grow, but at a slower rate than previously" - Office for National Statistics

I meant in the long run, comparing 1960-1990 to 1990-2020. You've opened a thread to talk about 2020 and are trapped in a three year trend?

And data I mentioned on my post didn't come from citypopulation, but from UK Census. From citypopulation, I took London urban agglomeration definition. It has this 14.2 million people (2018) on the boundaries presented on the link.

[The North One]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

Both Melbourne and London seem amenable to seawalls. London already has one, although it may need to be upgraded by 2100:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Barrier

Sea walls are not going to save these cities lol.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

I meant in the long run, comparing 1960-1990 to 1990-2020. You've opened a thread to talk about 2020 and are trapped in a three year trend?

That 3 year trend is pretty important as it coincides with Brexit. One of the major sources of growth in London in recent years has been from within the EU - and that source has now been completely wiped out. The longer term economic ramifications still remain to be seen, but at this early point don't seem to bode terribly well for London either.

1990-2016 data is now mostly irrelevant for future growth projections.