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  #1  
Old Posted May 23, 2016, 3:23 AM
nei nei is offline
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Car Ownership and Density in New York City (and a few others)

I've made a series of graphs and maps on car ownership levels for several US urban areas, as well as comparing car ownership levels to population density (and maybe in subsquent posts, other factors such as income). I looked at New York City first, and then a few others afterwards. The maps aren't the cleanest, but I don't have much background in mapping. Biggest issue I had with the maps is that census tracts boundaries include water, and I'm not sure how to clip them to include only land. While numerous sites that display census data in a friendly way (census explorer, citydata, socialexplorer, etc.) have some maps on cars per household, I don't think any has cars per adult. And rather sure none has car density maps.

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New York City

The map is by census tract, and it's a bit of a mess as census tracts include water. Cars per adult. For the entire region, the stars are MTA commuter rail stops (Metro North / LIRR); I had trouble finding location data for NJ Transit. Interested in seeing if commuter rail access affects car ownership at all, as well as using it as a reference to help figure out what town you're looking at.

Black lines are county boundaries. While the city has a much lower car ownership level than the suburbs, inner suburbs have somewhat less than outer (perhaps more one-car families). The car ownership levels change gradually at the Queens-Nassau border. Further out, the lower car ownership spots are mostly relatively poor and immigrant heavy suburbs. This is ACS survey data, so there's some error; don't read too much into individual census tracts; just the overall pattern. There are some random very low car ownership spots surrounded by much higher adjacent spots; I suspect most are from small sample size issues, rather than anything meaningful. But a few probably aren't; a census tract on Fire Island shows much lower car onwership than its surroundings, reasonable since there's not much of a road system.



Now zoomed in to just the city. Gray line correspond to subway lines, light black borders correspond to community board boundaries. Thick black borders are county lines or borough boundaries. It's fairly obvious from the map that car ownership is far lower near the parts of the city with good subway coverage. While it's likely that better transit reduces car ownership, the neighborhoods covered by subways tend to be older and denser, with cars in general less useful, so it's possible the subway isn't a cause but just correlates with low car ownership.



While the denser parts of the city have a lower rate of car ownership, higher density also could mean a higher concentration of cars. Which effect wins out? The image of a big, dense city neighborhood is often one of lots of traffic and lots of street parked cars despit lower car ownership. Here's a map of car density.



The city in general has a higher car density than the surrounding suburbs. But car density appears to not vary much as much car ownership levels within the city. Many of the higher peaks in relatively dense but somewhat more auto-oriented neighborhoods. Southern Brooklyn has a lower population density than northern Brooklyn but appears to have a similar or higher car density. A few Manhattan spots have very high peaks; it's from a combination of somewhat high car ownership levels (for Manhattan standards) and very high population density. Upper Manhattn has only a slightly lower population density than say the Upper East Side, but much lower car density. Anyone search for street parking in either neighborhood knows that already. Here's a map of population density to compare:



You can see the population density and car density maps have some big differences. Here are car per household maps since some might find them a more meaningful number:



I thought the car density numbers were particularly interesting. Does car ownership levels in NYC go so low that population density no longer increases on car density? Yes. Scatter plot of car density vs population density; each dot is a census tract. You can see car density rises nearly linearly (not quite 1:1) with population density. Past a certain it levels off, and the correlation becomes weak. This over the entire NYC urban area, not just the city.



Now let's how car density corresponds with car ownership levels. Does lower car ownership neighborhoods result in neighborhoods more crowded or less crowded with cars? Some have assumed low car ownership should imply non-crowded streets; others have assumed low car ownership neighborhoods = high density = streets full of cars. As you might have guessed from the map, car density is generally the lowest in high car ownerhship neighborhoods (low density) but at lower car ownerhisp levels, the relationship between car density and ownership is weak. The lower left corner (near zero car ownership and near zero car density) doesn't make much sense; I suspect some of those census tracts have non-residential land skewing the density number.



So, is this just a NYC pattern? Obviously, NYC has far more high density and low car ownership rate areas. But would cities that some similar neighborhoods, say Boston or Philadelphia have similar relations with car density? Any questions on the maps? Do they all make sense?
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  #2  
Old Posted May 23, 2016, 3:24 AM
nei nei is offline
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Looking more closely at how car ownership changes with density…

I didn't show cars per adult vs population density in the previous graphs, instead having car density as a variable. But since car density is a function of population density and car ownership this relation is closely connected, all those scatter plots are showing about the same relation. Here's a scatter plot of cars per adult vs population density for the NYC urban area to get a sense of the variation. What else could affect car ownership besides density? Maybe separate into places near a subway or not. A group that studies NYC demography uses 1/2 mile as a thershold, and I think NYC zoning may lower parking requirements for those areas. Not just NYC, I think other cities (DC, Boston? ) have done or considered similar. Income is of course another obvious variable. And perhaps % of families with children?




I separated the NYC urban area into the NY and NJ sides. Binned by density (every 5k / sq mile below 30k/sq mile, every 10k above) and found the median cars per adult for each bin. At the lower densities, the relation of car ownership with density is roughly the same for both NJ and NY, above about 40k/ sq mile, NY has a signficantly lower car ownership and NJ doesn't decline much with density. Though there aren't many NJ areas above that density, so the data is a bit noisy. 40k/sq mile and above is about the density of older parts of NYC near the subway. Perhaps this is expected as equivalent NJ area have less convenient transit?



Now let's add in Philadelphia and Boston



A bit hard to see, but appears to follow the NYC relation. A median plot of three places



Boston and Philadelphia appear to follow NYC's relation, maybe slightly higher at the highest densities, but there aren't many places in either Boston or Philly in tracts 40k/sq mile or more so there are sample size issues. I think the reason Boston and Philadelphia follow the relation is most of the highest densities areas of both cities are in or near downtown with good transit access, unlike some of the NJ spots.
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  #3  
Old Posted May 30, 2016, 3:56 AM
jd3189 jd3189 is offline
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From what I can remember from my childhood and recent visits, NYC has a lot of parked cars in the streets at least in the outer boroughs and residential parts of Manhattan. Has the best public transportation system in the country but still has a good amount of car ownership. Reason may be like it is for the rest of the US: not everyone wants to ride the bus or subway with strangers.
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Old Posted May 30, 2016, 4:49 AM
mhays mhays is offline
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A lot of those car owners use transit to get to work, and have cars more for weekends and non-work trips. Or transit doesn't go where they need to go.
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  #5  
Old Posted May 30, 2016, 1:00 PM
nei nei is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jd3189 View Post
From what I can remember from my childhood and recent visits, NYC has a lot of parked cars in the streets at least in the outer boroughs and residential parts of Manhattan. Has the best public transportation system in the country but still has a good amount of car ownership. Reason may be like it is for the rest of the US: not everyone wants to ride the bus or subway with strangers.
But as my charts show, high volume of cars (car density) is often accompanied by low levels of car ownership. Owning a car is not the same as driving to work, the maps and charts would look very different if it were going by % driving to work.
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Old Posted May 30, 2016, 3:09 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
But as my charts show, high volume of cars (car density) is often accompanied by low levels of car ownership. Owning a car is not the same as driving to work, the maps and charts would look very different if it were going by % driving to work.
Right, you will always see lots of cars in dense urban areas with low auto ownership, simply because the areas are so dense. Hong Kong has the lowest car ownership of any developed city on earth, yet it isn't like there isn't horrible congestion and very limited parking availability.

Also, dense areas tend to have street parkers rather than off street parkers. That's why low car ownership areas tend to have worse parking situations that high car ownership areas (because everything in the latter are built around the auto).
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Old Posted May 30, 2016, 3:53 PM
nei nei is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Right, you will always see lots of cars in dense urban areas with low auto ownership, simply because the areas are so dense. Hong Kong has the lowest car ownership of any developed city on earth, yet it isn't like there isn't horrible congestion and very limited parking availability.

Also, dense areas tend to have street parkers rather than off street parkers. That's why low car ownership areas tend to have worse parking situations that high car ownership areas (because everything in the latter are built around the auto).
Some dense areas have more off-street parking than others. Sometimes because of development era or parking requirements but some pre-auto era housing stock retrofits better for parking than others. Boston's triple-deckers / small apartment buildings have enough space in between for a driveway and sometimes parking in back. Chicago probably similar to Boston in this respect. Philly rowhouse neighborhoods don't, unless there's an alley. From my graphs, actual amount of car ownership by density is very similar in both Philadelphia and Boston, but my impression is Philadelphia has worse street parking. Los Angeles, of course, has higher car ownership and more off-street parking at the same densities compared to Northeastern cities.

But yea, the "lots of people own cars here, look at all the cars parked on the street" is bad logic.
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  #8  
Old Posted Jun 1, 2016, 4:39 AM
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ardecila ardecila is offline
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Originally Posted by nei View Post
Boston's triple-deckers / small apartment buildings have enough space in between for a driveway and sometimes parking in back. Chicago probably similar to Boston in this respect.
Yes and no. My census tract has about 35000ppsm with a neighborhood average around 28000ppsm. Pretty average for a "dense" Chicago neighborhood. Chicago has 25' lots, which is wide enough for a two-car garage off the alley. Conveniently, 25' is also enough curb frontage for one car, or if we're talking compact cars, 1.5.

That means, very generally, that any ratio higher than 3.5 cars per city lot (or 36 cars per acre) will cause a localized parking shortage. Obviously there are factors that make it worse (my building has a coach house with two more units instead of a garage!) and factors that make it better (I live a block away from a medium-sized urban park with lots of unclaimed curb space!)
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