Winnipeg CMA in Five Years (2021)

[balletomane]

Not quite sure where to post this, but I will here.
I was looking at statistics from Manitoba's Provincial Nominee Program and I had never realized that such a large proportion of immigrants to the province were admitted through the program, I always thought it was for the most part a smaller number of skilled workers.
And it is sure good we have the program because Manitoba would look very different from today (and little changed from 2000 without it)!

Manitoba population growth with the MPNP vs without

1999: 4,865 vs. 4,447
2000: 4,137 vs. 3,049
2001: 5,186 vs. 4,214
2002: 6,892 vs. 5,365
2003: 9,695 vs. 6,589
2004: 5,073 vs. 1,025
2005: 5,228 vs. 609
2006: 5,842 vs. -819
2007: 8,408 vs. 719
2008: 10,815 vs. 2,847
2009: 12,341 vs. 2,190
2010: 12,798 vs. 620
2011: 16,537 vs. 4,195
2012: 15,323 vs. 5,792
2013: 15,324 vs. 6,470
2014: 14,510 vs. 2,323
2015: 22,693 vs. 12,431
2016: 19,994 vs. 10,036
Total: 195,661 vs. 72,102

And for Winnipeg, growth with MPNP vs without.
*this is approximate as I couldn't find specific numbers for Winnipeg, but about 1/3 or 70% of provincial nominees come to Winnipeg
1999: 3,500 vs. 3,200
2000: 2,700 vs. 1,900
2001: 3,000 vs. 2,300
2002: 3,400 vs. 2,300
2003: 4,800 vs. 2,600
2004: 1,800 vs. -1,000
2005: 2,200 vs. -1,000
2006: 1,800 vs. -2,900
2007: 3,100 vs. -2,300
2008: 5,200 vs. -400
2009: 6,400 vs. -700
2010: 8,400 vs. -100
2011: 11,500 vs. 2,900
2012: 9,200 vs. 2,500
2013: 10,700 vs. 4,500
2014: 10,100 vs. 1,600
2015: 16,100 vs. 8,900
2016: 14,100 vs. 7,100
Total: 118,000 vs. 31,400

[Hockey]

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...019002-eng.htm

Looks like the town of Niverville may be added to the Winnipeg CMA for censuses 2021. That would add 4,610 people to the 832,000 in the Winnipeg CMA as of July 2018.

Using 832,000 in 2018 and adding 2 years of growth plus Niverville, the 2020 CMA Winnipeg is around 860.000.

The metro Winnipeg count with the town of Selkirk, stonewall and those outside the CMA put Winnipeg metro region around 900,000.

[armorand93]

Originally Posted by Hockey

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...019002-eng.htm

Looks like the town of Niverville may be added to the Winnipeg CMA for censuses 2021. That would add 4,610 people to the 832,000 in the Winnipeg CMA as of July 2018.

Using 832,000 in 2018 and adding 2 years of growth plus Niverville, the 2020 CMA Winnipeg is around 860.000.

The metro Winnipeg count with the town of Selkirk, stonewall and those outside the CMA put Winnipeg metro region around 900,000.

And yet, Pallister is treating 70-80% of the province within earshot of Winnipeg, along with my home city itself, like his own cruel science and economic experiment...

If Winnipeg and surrounding areas are now on the verge of hitting a seven-figure populace, more should be done to prepare for it. Especially infrastructure, inter-regional transit and jobs. The three key things, that Premier Hamhands is wholly incapable of. And same with the NDP. They might do 1/3 and expand transit if they ever come back to power (which is guaranteed thanks to inner Winnipeg), but the jobs and infrastructure? Lawl.

Serious work needs to be done, to prepare for Winnipegs rightful place as a million-man city. So far? Theres barely been any at all. Granted its still under 800,000 in the city itself, but at least if Winnipeg and the surrounding region actually PREPARES FOR THIS, it won't be another round of bullshit, like the previous few decades.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Hockey

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...019002-eng.htm

Looks like the town of Niverville may be added to the Winnipeg CMA for censuses 2021. That would add 4,610 people to the 832,000 in the Winnipeg CMA as of July 2018.

Using 832,000 in 2018 and adding 2 years of growth plus Niverville, the 2020 CMA Winnipeg is around 860.000.

The metro Winnipeg count with the town of Selkirk, stonewall and those outside the CMA put Winnipeg metro region around 900,000.

Not that population growth should be used as a way of measuring a city's quality, but those are pretty heady numbers for a city that seemed stuck in the 600 thousand range for much of my life. A million seemed like a far off dream not that long ago... now it feels almost imminent.

[Biff]

Interesting stats from Twitter.

Robson Fletcher@CBCFletch · Feb 3

This chart was a little too busy for my "Why Calgary is losing its young people" story -- https://cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/c...ysis-1.5444969
-- but I think it's interesting & worth sharing.

Note: these are StatsCan population *estimates* but they largely jive with Calgary's census data.

[EspionNoir]

Originally Posted by Biff

Interesting stats from Twitter.

Robson Fletcher@CBCFletch · Feb 3

This chart was a little too busy for my "Why Calgary is losing its young people" story -- https://cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/c...ysis-1.5444969
-- but I think it's interesting & worth sharing.

Note: these are StatsCan population *estimates* but they largely jive with Calgary's census data.

So nice to see Winnipeg doing a good job in retaining young workforce. Of course Toronto is at the top of the ranking haha.

I’m really surprised to see the 2 big cities in Alberta doing poorly...actually, more surprised by Quebec City’s position.

[roccerfeller]

Originally Posted by EspionNoir

So nice to see Winnipeg doing a good job in retaining young workforce. Of course Toronto is at the top of the ranking haha.

I’m really surprised to see the 2 big cities in Alberta doing poorly...actually, more surprised by Quebec City’s position.

Day to day life is fine and goes on in both cities, things are moving along and construction is still abound. But the economy downturn there is pretty significant. For many people, myself included, it has led to looking for better opportunities (or even just a job) elsewhere. One example, according to one of my close friends - his graduating class in Engineering had an under-10% job match rate, whereas the year before was over 90% (this was at the advent of the downturn). That is pretty significant and those young professionals are going to leave - which is what he ended up doing. The Plus 15’s are a lot less busy than they’ve ever been. I also left because I hit a wall there with opportunities, a wall that didn’t exist prior to the economy downturn.

Anecdotal, but it doesn’t surprise me to see those results with my own experiences, as well as those of my close friends and family members in similar boats.

I hope things turn around, because it’s been really tough for a lot of people

[bomberjet]

Originally Posted by roccerfeller

Day to day life is fine and goes on in both cities, things are moving along and construction is still abound. But the economy downturn there is pretty significant. For many people, myself included, it has led to looking for better opportunities (or even just a job) elsewhere. One example, according to one of my close friends - his graduating class in Engineering had an under-10% job match rate, whereas the year before was over 90% (this was at the advent of the downturn). That is pretty significant and those young professionals are going to leave - which is what he ended up doing. The Plus 15’s are a lot less busy than they’ve ever been. I also left because I hit a wall there with opportunities, a wall that didn’t exist prior to the economy downturn.

Anecdotal, but it doesn’t surprise me to see those results with my own experiences, as well as those of my close friends and family members in similar boats.

I hope things turn around, because it’s been really tough for a lot of people

That's a significant number. As I mentioned yesterday somewhere on SSP, it's exactly what we're seeing in the engineering field. People coming to (back to) Winnipeg for work in engineering. Which is excellent news for the area.

[BlackDog204]

Unfortunately, due to COVID restrictions, it does not look like the Winnipeg CMA (or Canada population for that matter),will grow much past the 850,000 mark which it is currently at. However I can foresee an economic boom, once the pandemic ends sometime in 2022. Winnipeg will emerge in relatively good shape.

[esquire]

From the Canada subforum:

Statscan estimate for Winnipeg as at July 1, 2020: 850,056

We're getting close to a million people, looks like we're on pace to be the next Canadian CMA to reach that level, and seventh overall to attain it.

And the rest of the country:

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

From Stats Can; Annual population estimates by census metropolitan area, July 1, 2020:

Canada 38,005,238
All census metropolitan areas 27,306,305
Abbotsford-Mission 204,265
Barrie 218,188
Belleville 112,980
Brantford 151,566
Calgary 1,543,283
Edmonton 1,468,926
Greater Sudbury 172,462
Guelph 167,509
Halifax 448,544
Hamilton 804,691
Kelowna 222,748
Kingston 176,184
Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo 593,882
Lethbridge 128,851
London 551,066
Moncton 158,695
Montréal 4,364,189
Oshawa 423,036
Ottawa–Gatineau 1,461,494
Ottawa–Gatineau, Ontario part 1,111,773
Ottawa–Gatineau, Quebec part 349,721
Peterborough 131,939
Québec 832,328
Regina 263,184
Saguenay 163,354
Saint John 131,772
Saskatoon 336,614
Sherbrooke 224,557
St. Catharines–Niagara 437,114
St. John's 214,014
Thunder Bay 126,861
Toronto 6,555,205
Trois-Rivières 163,287
Vancouver 2,737,698
Victoria 408,883
Windsor 356,880
Winnipeg 850,056

[optimusREIM]

Originally Posted by esquire

From the Canada subforum:

Statscan estimate for Winnipeg as at July 1, 2020: 850,056

We're getting close to a million people, looks like we're on pace to be the next Canadian CMA to reach that level, and seventh overall to attain it.

And the rest of the country:

Admittedly we're going to see less of a population increase this year, but I'd expect maybe a modest increase?

Do we count on Jan 1st? Or July like the stats can people?

[GreyGarden]

I saw this tweet after the release of the stats can estimates:

https://twitter.com/neil_lovitt/stat...45020023279622

It has Winnipeg's growth down around 0.69% - which compared to the rest of the country is not great. Amongst big cities, that is last.

[roccerfeller]

I’m surprised with the 2 major Albertan cities holding strong relative growth still

Can’t speak to Edmonton but in Calgary that has Not been my experience albeit anecdotal experience only goes so far. Downtown offices is still on the empty side though.

Winnipeg at 850k is really nice though. Keep in mind, CMA does not include Selkirk

[buzzg]

Interesting that the narrative for QC not getting an NHL team is that it's just too small a market... yet it's caught up to Winnipeg and almost equal now. And Quebec has a stronger hockey culture.

[GreyGarden]

Originally Posted by roccerfeller

I’m surprised with the 2 major Albertan cities holding strong relative growth still

Can’t speak to Edmonton but in Calgary that has Not been my experience albeit anecdotal experience only goes so far. Downtown offices is still on the empty side though.

I was too - but checking in on the Canada forums, things seem to be going decently well in those two cities.

It makes their insistent whining that they have it so tough and that the rest of the country is out to screw them even more annoying to hear lol.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by buzzg

Interesting that the narrative for QC not getting an NHL team is that it's just too small a market... yet it's caught up to Winnipeg and almost equal now. And Quebec has a stronger hockey culture.

Quebec was actually ahead of us until fairly recently.

[rrskylar]

Originally Posted by esquire

Quebec was actually ahead of us until fairly recently.

Manitoba has the most lax immigration standards of any Canadian province, if you have a pulse you can come to Manitoba!

[esquire]

Originally Posted by GreyGarden

I saw this tweet after the release of the stats can estimates:

https://twitter.com/neil_lovitt/stat...45020023279622

It has Winnipeg's growth down around 0.69% - which compared to the rest of the country is not great. Amongst big cities, that is last.

Going to spitball a guess and say that one of our major sources of population inflow, immigration, was largely cut off in 2020 while people continued to leave Winnipeg for other provinces at rates not that far off from usual.

[GreyGarden]

Originally Posted by esquire

Going to spitball a guess and say that one of our major sources of population inflow, immigration, was largely cut off in 2020 while people continued to leave Winnipeg for other provinces at rates not that far off from usual.

This is my guess as well. We need to try and turn that ship around.

[GreyGarden]

From the Stats Can Forum:

Originally Posted by shreddog

Interesting to note that in the latest estimates from SC, the prov growths 2019Q4 to 2020Q4 are:

AB: 0.98%
PE: 0.87%
ON: 0.72%
MB: 0.44%
QC: 0.41%
NS: 0.40%
BC: 0.39%
NB: 0.15%
SK: 0.14%
NL: -0.60%