Queen's Park Politics

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2...ls-in-ontario/

First poll in a while. Wynne's approval is 36%, and 37% are calling for Wynne's resignation. Despite the PC lead, I doubt they would form government with those numbers due to undercover Liberal support in the GTA.

They're actually doing polls, now? Seems a little premature lol...

Interesting that McNaughton & Brown do way worse than Elliott. The PC party will be shooting themselves in the foot if they go with anyone but Elliott.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

They're actually doing polls, now? Seems a little premature lol...

Interesting that McNaughton & Brown do way worse than Elliott. The PC party will be shooting themselves in the foot if they go with anyone but Elliott.

Yeah those numbers are with a "generic" PC leader. I believe they were done before the sex-ed and evolution issues came to front, and those definitely help the Liberals in urban areas even if the Conservatives gain some in rural and small-town Ontario.

[1overcosc]

It appears Brown's campaign is gaining momentum. His main supporters in caucus are Rich Nicholls, of creationist fame, and Jack MacLaren, of the wacko "property rights" crowd. This is not good.

Please, for the love of god, PCPO, pick Elliott.

This is going to sound odd from a social democrat who voted Liberal and has made no secret of being pro-Wynne, but I want the PC party to be competitive. If the PCPO remains a rural old men rump, Ontario will become a one party state. And that's not good for anyone, leftists included.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

Who else would they turn to? There really isn't anyone high-profile in either federal or provincial politics that is more moderate than her.

John Baird is someone who could have led the Ontario PCs to victory. He has both provincial and federal experience and just stepped down from being Canada's Minister of Foreign Affairs. He is fiscally conservative but socially quite progressive. He was known as being an advocate for Women's and LGBT rights while a federal cabinet minister and voted in favour of same-sex marriage.

Many people say and have hinted that Baird is in fact gay but he has never said anything publicly about his orientation so we have to leave it at that. I am not conservative at all but I did enjoy Baird's sense of humour and debating skills in the Ontario Legislature and federal parliament. He definitely wasn't one of those boring, dry, backwards conservatives.


Christine Elliott is the only leadership candidate who even has a chance of doing well but some of the current PC MPPs would likely ruin things for her unless she puts them in their place.

[vid]

I don't even want to know what kind of complaints we'd hear if Baird were to become premier.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by vid

I don't even want to know what kind of complaints we'd hear if Baird were to become premier.

He would have trouble with the base (yes, they are socially conservative in about 20-25 core ridings for them) and his ties to the Harris era would be used as a negative by the Liberals and their masters as well. If anything, the party would likely be wiped off the map if he became leader.

[Docere]

Martin Regg Cohn seems to think that Patrick Brown has probably clinched it.

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspa...mier-cohn.html

Christine Elliott may be the "establishment" candidate but she is quite dull and lazy by most accounts and she came in third last time around.

[1overcosc]

Bad move. Brown is too right-wing to win. If they pick him the party fell into the same trap they did with Hudak. Brown may not even have the honeymoon boost (the normal phenomenon where an opposition party gains a lead in response to a new leader--that briefly happened with Mulcair in 2012, for example).

There was a quote in the Star a few days ago that summed it up well IMO. The PCs are at risk of being "the unelectable NDP of the right".

Now, Elliott could actually become Premier. Though her speech the other day where she said that, was hilarious, she sounded exactly like Kathleen Wynne and the concrete action steps she said she would take (line-by-line spending review, government asset review) is exactly what Wynne is doing right now.

[1overcosc]

Brown may have signed up a huge number of members, but where? The PC leadership votes are riding-based, so if Brown signed up all those new numbers in rural areas that won't matter if the GTA members still vote Elliott.

[Docere]

Actually it sounds like he's doing the "Jason Kenney" thing, showing up at churches and temples and signing up lots of people in immigrant communities like South Asians and Filipinos. For example, he's developed a relationship with the (ultra-right wing) Prime Minister Modi of India.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...ticle23963747/

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Docere

Actually it sounds like he's doing the "Jason Kenney" thing, showing up at churches and temples and signing up lots of people in immigrant communities like South Asians and Filipinos. For example, he's developed a relationship with the (ultra-right wing) Prime Minister Modi of India.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...ticle23963747/

That's encouraging for his chances of winning the convention.

But he's way too vulnerable to character assassination. His association to anti-abortion causes and the fact that he voted against marriage equality in 2006 will make for very powerful Liberal attack ammo.

[SteelTown]

I'm a Liberal but if Christine Elliott is the next PC leader I will seriously vote for the PC.

I'm a strong advocate for the disabled and I know she and Flaherty was and is an advocate as well.

She's a compassionate progressive conservative and I'm the same (social liberal but a fiscal conservative) .

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

I'm a Liberal but if Christine Elliott is the next PC leader I will seriously vote for the PC.

I'm a strong advocate for the disabled and I know she and Flaherty was and is an advocate as well.

She's a compassionate progressive conservative and I'm the same (social liberal but a fiscal conservative) .

You're exactly the type of group that the PCs need to target. People like you are very common in urban Ontario, and they used to be PC voters back in the Davis era, but the PC shift to the harder right moved that group into the Liberal camp.

If Christine Elliott is the PC leader, it will certainly be in my consideration to vote PC, I won't automatically write them off like I usually do.

Elliott strikes me as very similar to Wynne. While they disagree on key issues like the ORPP, they're overall style and the way they approach things seems pretty similar. If Elliott wins the leadership and the PCs win a majority in 2018, not much will change in the Ontario government aside from the language. Although of course she'll insist she's doing everything differently. Like that speech she gave... she criticized Wynne and said "I'll do things differently by doing....." and then filled it the rest with basically exactly what Wynne's doing.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Bad move. Brown is too right-wing to win. If they pick him the party fell into the same trap they did with Hudak. Brown may not even have the honeymoon boost (the normal phenomenon where an opposition party gains a lead in response to a new leader--that briefly happened with Mulcair in 2012, for example).

There was a quote in the Star a few days ago that summed it up well IMO. The PCs are at risk of being "the unelectable NDP of the right".

Now, Elliott could actually become Premier. Though her speech the other day where she said that, was hilarious, she sounded exactly like Kathleen Wynne and the concrete action steps she said she would take (line-by-line spending review, government asset review) is exactly what Wynne is doing right now.

Well said! I agree with everything you wrote.

[vid]

If Christine Elliot wins, the PCs will form government in 2018. If anyone else wins, then Kathleen Wynne will have to seriously fuck up for them to replace her in 2018. She essentially is Kathleen Wynne, but with a few differences on certain positions. And she isn't a lesbian. I'd love to see a debate between the two of them.

As an aside, has anyone checked out the Alberta NDP leader lately? Remind you of anyone?

[1overcosc]

^ Now that's a freaky resemblance.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by vid

If Christine Elliot wins, the PCs will form government in 2018. If anyone else wins, then Kathleen Wynne will have to seriously fuck up for them to replace her in 2018. She essentially is Kathleen Wynne, but with a few differences on certain positions. And she isn't a lesbian. I'd love to see a debate between the two of them.

I disagree that if Elliot wins it would be an automatic PC win. It certainly seems like she would have the best chance after many years of the Liberals in power. BUT, the PCs would need to have a popular platform and not allow their neo-con/tea party/extreme types to make policies or say stupid things. Patrick Brown doesn't stand a chance. Way too right-wing for Ontario in general. He is very popular only within a segment of his own party.

John Tory made the mistake with the private school funding policy in 2007. Tory is a very moderate conservative who could have been a real challenger. But he let those to the right of him have too much say in the party's platform. Hudak, who is quite right-wing, always thought that attacking and going after public service employees would win it for the PCs. Obviously it didn't work.

Another big factor is what happens with NDP support. If it grows it could actually help the PCs if it comes at the expense of the Liberals. Or many NDP supporters may vote Liberal like in 2014 to prevent any chance of a PC victory.

[1overcosc]

The Ontario NDP has been dying a slow nasty death since Wynne became Premier due to Wynne's social democratic policies.

The partial sale of Hydro One may provide the NDP something to rally around to recoup, but we'll see. If Wynne delivers on her promises (balanced budget by end of term, large scale transit investment, the ORPP, cap and trade, etc.) and the HydroOne issue doesn't get the NDP any support, I could see the ONDP facing near wipe out in 2018.

[realcity]

The Ontario NDP aren't totally dying from Wynne's progressive platform, it's the moron leader the NDP have. Andrea Horwath refuses to step down, that's the problem with NDP leaders, even if they keep losing 3 or more elections they still keep them. PCs and Liberal leaders get two chances tops.

[manny_santos]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

You're exactly the type of group that the PCs need to target. People like you are very common in urban Ontario, and they used to be PC voters back in the Davis era, but the PC shift to the harder right moved that group into the Liberal camp.

If Christine Elliott is the PC leader, it will certainly be in my consideration to vote PC, I won't automatically write them off like I usually do.

Elliott strikes me as very similar to Wynne. While they disagree on key issues like the ORPP, they're overall style and the way they approach things seems pretty similar. If Elliott wins the leadership and the PCs win a majority in 2018, not much will change in the Ontario government aside from the language. Although of course she'll insist she's doing everything differently. Like that speech she gave... she criticized Wynne and said "I'll do things differently by doing....." and then filled it the rest with basically exactly what Wynne's doing.

If the PCs have any chance of winning the next election, they have to be more moderate, like Bill Davis. They can't be like Mike Harris.