15 Largest Cities by 2046?

[Omaharocks]

Originally Posted by pj3000

That's cool, thanks for the info. I'm not familiar with Chicago to really understand the population dynamics there, but I certainly figured that it's NOT like smaller rustbelt cities, just mega times their size -- I didn't mean to suggest that at all... Only that it has that real generational heft to it, with the problems of smaller rustbelt cities of the region present, but very far from dominant. It's constantly getting new blood in the door, as a major global magnet.

From your a-b-c description, sounds very similar to my experience, except swapping Chicago with NYC/Philly.

Yes, I think as Steely mentioned, Chicago has a good balance of somewhere between generational stability and transience.

But I would say the multi-generational aspect definitely has major downsides. My wife's family is all from Milwaukee. I love so much about that city, but it's an example of a midwestern city that does need more fresh blood.

We very well might end up back there one day, but for those that aren't from there or have "married into Milwaukee" as I have, the provincialism, binge-drinking, and local-sports fanaticism can be a turn off. Otherwise, it's great!

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Omaharocks

But I would say the multi-generational aspect definitely has major downsides. My wife's family is all from Milwaukee. I love so much about that city, but it's an example of a midwestern city that does need more fresh blood.

Because a city that doesn't continually have a healthy amount of new blood coming in is, by definition, in decline.

[Chef]

In the Twin Cities St Paul definitely has that rooted, intergenerational feel to it while Minneapolis does not. I think it is one of the attractions of St Paul - you can live in a city that is a rooted community, and where neighbors know each other, but if it becomes too stifling you can also disappear into the big city across the river.

[Omaharocks]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Because a city that doesn't continually have a healthy amount of new blood coming in is, by definition, in decline.

Is that something you are saying or some interpretation of what I said?

I don't think anything I wrote implies I feel that Milwaukee is in decline. I think it's a very healthy city with controlled and sustainable growth.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by Buckeye Native 001

Without having read the article, I'm going to assume high cost of living is one factor, outside of maybe Chicago?

The Californians leaving for neighboring states are starting to make it impossible for us locals to afford housing, but compared to where they're coming from (SoCal and the Bay Area), housing is a steal.

Chicago has high property taxes and housing prices outside of the core are stagnant.

[Yuri]

Again about Chicago, they've been having a massive domestic emigration (https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/population/) and if they adjust that and resume international immigration, they'll be once again in a confortable position.

Chicago MSA is losing 80,000 people every year for other parts of the country. Detroit MSA, for instance, is at 16,000 only.

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by Omaharocks

Yes, I think as Steely mentioned, Chicago has a good balance of somewhere between generational stability and transience.

But I would say the multi-generational aspect definitely has major downsides. My wife's family is all from Milwaukee. I love so much about that city, but it's an example of a midwestern city that does need more fresh blood.

We very well might end up back there one day, but for those that aren't from there or have "married into Milwaukee" as I have, the provincialism, binge-drinking, and local-sports fanaticism can be a turn off. Otherwise, it's great!

I've heard that Wisconsin takes the beer binge-drinking to a higher level, but provincialism and sports team fanaticism seem to have strong footholds in many cities. In Pennsylvania, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh have those attributes well covered.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Again about Chicago, they've been having a massive domestic emigration (https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/population/) and if they adjust that and resume international immigration, they'll be once again in a confortable position.

Chicago MSA is losing 80,000 people every year for other parts of the country. Detroit MSA, for instance, is at 16,000 only.

The Metro is stagnant/slow growth depending, attracts a lot of out of state people (sometimes transient sometimes permanent) but it looses as many people from the inner suburbs and outer city neighborhoods as it gains.

The central city still grows in a microcosm and the nicer suburbs are fine but everything middle class and down hemoreges natives to the south and west.

and its even worse in the smaller cities down-state.

[IrishIllini]

Obadno has slightly out-of-date info. Chicago MSA is more less flat. Illinois outside of the Chicagoland area is shrinking. With the pandemic, property values are increasing quickly in most suburbs. Single family homes in the city move quickly, but condos appear flat.

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/resi...rdrive-january

“It’s good old-fashioned supply and demand,” said Beth Gomez, a Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Chicago agent. “People are upsizing because of COVID, but the inventory of homes is very low. Prices go up.”

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

Chicago MSA is more less flat. Illinois outside of the Chicagoland area is shrinking. With the pandemic, property values are increasing quickly in most suburbs. Single family homes in the city move quickly, but condos appear flat.

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/resi...rdrive-january

the bolded does appear to be the general trend during the pandemic, but i monitor the value of our condo on the online estimator websites, and taking the median estimate from zillow, trulia, and redfin, our condo is allegedly up ~8% from last february according to them, which i find surprising. (i realize that 8% YOY is somewhat paltry for our urban-darling coastal city dwellers, but in stagnant-ass chicago during a global fucking pandemic, you'll take that all day long.)

it helps that our condo is pretty damn big by city standards (3 bed 3 bath, 2,300 SF), and what i've heard from realtor friends is that available inventory of larger homes is so damn low in the city at the moment that anything with a 3rd or 4th bedroom or a den or bonus room (even if it's a condo) has been getting immediately snatched up by those seeking to upsize for a dedicated home office.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

the bolded does appear to be the general trend during the pandemic, but i monitor the value of our condo on the online estimator websites, and taking the median estimate from zillow, trulia, and redfin, our condo is allegedly up ~8% from last march according to them, which i find surprising. (i realize that 8% YOY is somewhat paltry for our urban-darling coastal city dwellers, but in stagnant-ass chicago during a global fucking pandemic, you'll take that all day long.)

it helps that our condo is pretty damn big by city standards (3 bed 3 bath, 2,300 SF), and from what i've heard from realtor friends is that available inventory of larger homes is so damn low in the city at the moment that anything with a 3rd or 4th bedroom or a den or bonus room (even if it's a condo) has been getting snatched up by those seeking to upsize for a dedicated home office.

Given the size & ground-orientation of your place I wouldn't be surprised if it's gained value.

Condo prices in Toronto have stagnated or even declined through the pandemic; but when you look at the numbers a bit closer, it's mostly the tiny 1-bedrooms and studios in cheapo investor-driven buildings that have declined, pulling the average down. Anything 2-bedroom or above or otherwise generously sized & well-appointed has continued to climb in value.