The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[someone123]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Better not to focus on attaining corporate franchises and instead focus on fostering local, community-driven ventures instead. There might not be any fancy new chains in Saint John but there's a very nice Chinese grocery store now Uptown, and many convenience stores are shifting more towards tiny Korean grocery store offerings. Those didn't exist ten years ago and represent the changing diversity of grocery options available to locals.

Retail has become a lot less important than in the past too. People in LA are ordering the same Amazon stuff as people in Boise these days. Then there's a growing blight of luxury retail that's generic and pointless unless you want to signal that you have lots of money to burn. I find the high end areas of a lot of cities, full of businesses you don't find in Atlantic Canada, all feel the same and are boring.

I think even a lot of food stuff has been relatively "democratized" lately. As with luxury retail there's a kind of restaurant that's expensive but not that great. The biggest/best food cities will have the more breadth of good places but smaller places can still have lots of good ones.

And the reality is that people living in say the GTA are not traveling around the whole region every week going to different places. They tend to settle into a local area (east vs. west, 905 vs. 416) most of the time that's much closer in scale to a medium sized city.

[MonctonRad]

N.B. sees record population growth, adding 25,000 people in past year
Statistics Canada figures show province growing faster than national average
Shane Magee · CBC News · Posted: Dec 28, 2022 6:00 AM AT | Last Updated: 6 hours ago
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...ease-1.6696373

Of the 8,725 population increase between July 1 and Oct. 1, 7,460 were from international migration. Another roughly 1,500 people moved to New Brunswick from other provinces and territories.

There were 250 more deaths than births recorded.

Hallman said of the international migrants, 3,300 were immigrants and about 4,200 were non-permanent residents.

"What we've seen since the start of the pandemic, the Maritime provinces in particular have been gaining a lot of people through inter-provincial migration," Hallman said.

A lot of them have been people from Ontario relocating to the Maritimes. Hallman said they can't say for certain what is driving that move, but it could include cheaper housing and the ability to work remotely

[Mattyyy]

Statscan has released their population estimates as per July 1st, 2022 and the numbers are impressive:

- Moncton 171,608 (162,824 in 2021) = + 8,724 (5%)
- Halifax 480,582 (459,869 in 2021) = +20,713 (5%)
- Fredericton 116,159 (112,428 in 2021) = +3,731 (3%)

These are only a few examples and I don't have time to run through other cities.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=1710013501

[MonctonRad]

At this rate, Moncton will have 200,000 people by 2026.

[Taeolas]

Just to complete the NB trio, here's the numbers for Saint John:

- Saint John 135,662 (132,761 in 2021) = +2901 (~2.2%)

The NB Trio are still (in total) below Halifax, but we seem to be holding our own (~50k difference) and all three cities are growing.

Looking at the CA stats for the other cities, we saw growth across the board, even in Campbellton and the other northern cities.

Comparing 2018 to 2022 numbers, only CBRM and Campbellton are below the 2018 numbers. CBRM is still about 2k people below its peak in 2020, and Campbellton is about 200 people short of its 2018 peak; but both are back on the upswing it seems. Both could get back above their past highs in about 2 years or so if they can maintain their current rates of growth.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Just an interesting tidbit: the city of Miramichi proper is 18,283. It is New Brunswick's largest city outside the reach of the CMAs of the big 3. I'm looking at you Quispamsis, Riverview and Deippe

[mylesmalley]

Originally Posted by Mattyyy

- Moncton 171,608 (162,824 in 2021) = + 8,724 (5%)

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=1710013501

I know these are estimates, but that's just unbelievable growth in such a short period of time.

We've flown past Trois-Rivières and Saguenay. Basically tied with Guelph. Rushing up toward Kingston, Sudbury, who we'll pass next year if this trend continues.

[MonctonRad]

The Big Seven in Atlantic Canada (2022 vs 2021)

Halifax - 480,582 (+20,713)
St. John's - 219,119 (+4,852)
Moncton - 171,608 (+8,784)
Saint John - 135,622 (+2,861)
Fredericton - 116,159 (+3,731)
Sydney (CBRM) - 98,821 (+872)
Charlottetown - 86,865 (+3,484)

If these growth rates held steady until the 2031 census, the populations of the big seven Atlantic cities would be:

Halifax - 666,999
St. John's - 262,787
Moncton - 250,664
Saint John - 161, 371
Fredericton - 149,738
Charlottetown - 118,221
Sydney (CBRM) - 106,660

[q12]

The estimates released today are based on 2016 Census counts, adjusted for census net undercoverage and incompletely enumerated Indian reserves, to which are added the population growth estimates for the period from May 10, 2016, to the date of the estimate. These estimates are based on the 2016 Standard Geographical Classification. Estimates released today are not to be confused with the 2021 Census population counts released on February 9, 2022.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...30111c-eng.htm

These estimates are based on the 2016 Census and not the 2021. This means theses estimate numbers are not based on recent growth data. The Growth in Maritime cities between 2016-2021 is unprecedented and not accounted for if these estimates are based on 2016 census data.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the geographical area of the cities hasn't really changed much since 2016. That is what the information above is referring to, correct?

[billy1]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the geographical area of the cities hasn't really changed much since 2016. That is what the information above is referring to, correct?

Boundaries changed for certain areas in 2021

Charlottetown added roughly 4,500 in 2021 and Halifax added roughly 20,000.

[q12]

Fredericton is suppose to be a CMA and it's not in theses 2022 estimates.

Halifax added East Hants to it's CMA and it's not included in these 2022 estimates.

[q12]

Based on these latest estimates the Halifax CMA is 480,582 + 22,892 (2021 East Hants) + 2,739 (2021 Indian brook) = 506,213

Therefore the Halifax CMA July 1st 2022 Estimate is 506,213

[billy1]

Originally Posted by q12

Based on these latest estimates the Halifax CMA is 480,582 + 22,892 (2021 East Hants) + 2,739 (2021 Indian brook) = 506,213

Therefore the Halifax CMA July 1st 2022 Estimate is 506,213

Charlottetown would be +/- 92,000.

[q12]

What genius at Stats Canada thought releasing population estimates in 2023 based on 2016 data (7 years old) would be useful.

[Beaubassin]

Estimates for census subdivisions

• Moncton (C) 85,802 (+4,137) +5.1%
• Saint John (C) 73,611 (+1,759) +2.4%
• Fredericton (C) 66,879 (+1,982) +3.1%
• Dieppe (C) 31,535 (+2,004) +6.8%
• Riverview (TV) 21,352 (+603) +2.9%
• Quispamsis (TV) 19,454 (+308) +1.6%
• Miramichi (C) 18,283 (+231) +1.3%
• Edmundston (C) 17,026 (+163) +1.0%
• Tracadie (RGM) 16,424 (+229) +1.4%
• Bathurst (C) 12,370 (+29) +0.2%
• Rothesay (TV) 12,260 (+113) +0.9%
• Oromocto (TV) 10,020 (+177) +1.8%
• Shediac (TV) 8,182 (+512) +6.7%
• Beaubassin East / Beaubassin-est (RCR) 7,620 (+516) +7.2%
• Sackville (TV) 6,152 (+194) +3.3%
• Woodstock (TV) 5,849 (+198) +3.5%
• Memramcook (VL) 5,352 (+225) +4.4%
• Grand Falls / Grand-Sault (TV) 5,313 (+11) +0.2%

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=1710014201

[Nashe]

I know this gets kicked around a lot... but I wonder at what point the commuter patterns allow for Shediac to be "absorbed" into the Moncton CMA? That's probably 8k people right there.

CMA Map

It looks like Salisbury already is.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

Just an interesting tidbit: the city of Miramichi proper is 18,283. It is now New Brunswick's 4th largest city outside the reach of the CMAs of the big 3. I'm looking at you Quispamsis, Riverview and Deippe

Edit: more info

[ChampduLarge]

Beaubassin, it may be that Shediac gets absorbed into the CMA. Something that seems certain to me is that all of what is now the municipality of "Maple Hills", along the north edge of Moncton, will become part of Moncton's CMA. Most of it might be already, but where I am, I was outside of the CMA, but I am pretty sure they will re-visit that and I will get included in 2026. It may be that if they have to revisit that, they look at the whole CMA. Windsor got quite the boost last census, maybe it's our turn next.

[Bishop2047]

Oromocto will never be in Fredericton's CMA.

That extra 10,000 would be a nice ego boost.