The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[MonctonRad]

I was being purposefully inflammatory with the tone of my comment, just to see what some of the (NS) forumers would have to say......

Yes, I am aware that the largest employers in Moncton are the hospital(s). There are over 5,000 hospital workers in Moncton I believe. Also, curiously, there is a disproportionately large number of federal employees in the city as well, which is especially surprising given that Moncton is not a government city. I think this is due to the DFO Gulf Fisheries Centre, the Corrections Canada regional office and to Transport Canada.

This does not negate the fact however that Halifax is the capital of NS, has a large number of regional federal employees, has six universities and several large hospitals, as well as the huge DND establishment there. The underpinnings of the Halifax economy is therefore government activity, supplemented by the banking and insurance industries. There is very little actual manufacturing activity in NS (aside from Michelin), although this will change with the federal shipbuilding contract.

NB has always been strong in manufacturing. I believe there is a stat out there somewhere which states that on a per capital basis that NB is more reliant on international trade than any other province in the federation.....

[someone123]

Manufacturing is not all there is to the private-sector economy, and I suspect that a lot of creative (in the sense of "making stuff") industries don't count as manufacturing. For example, if you look at tech companies like Apple the high-value work is the design work and the profits are largely captured by this segment of the industry whereas the manufacturing done by Foxconn in China is relatively low-value. Cupertino's manufacturing output is very low or might be zero but it has a high level of economic activity and importance.

There are a lot of private companies in Halifax that employ large numbers of people but are not well-known. It is the same here in Vancouver; people say there are no real companies in this town but there are tons of mining and resource companies. Many people who don't work in those industries are oblivious to them because they're not consumer-oriented. Larger cities like Vancouver and even smaller cities like Halifax have complicated internal economies. It's not correct to say that they're just real estate or just government.

I don't think manufacturing output in North America as a whole has actually declined, and it may not have declined at all in Ontario either. There has been a shift to Asia, but the more important long-term trend is the shift toward automation. This is actually a positive thing for society since it means that we don't need people to do monotonous factory work, but unfortunately most of these gains have gone to a small class of people while the working class has lost out. This is just going to get worse and worse.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by someone123

unfortunately most of these gains have gone to a small class of people while the working class has lost out. This is just going to get worse and worse.

This is very true and indeed is unfortunate.

There are a lot of smart people out there who just aren't cut out for a white collar office job but who could contribute a lot to the manufacturing sector. These people now have little recourse other than low paying service sector jobs.

The loss of manufacturing jobs in North america has contributed in a large measure to the disappearance of the middle class.......

[RyeJay]

The parts of New Brunswick I find charming and familiar -- the Acadian-Anglo cultural spectrum that has developed throughout the entire province, Uptown Saint John, Downtown Fredericton, Downtown Moncton-Dieppe Centre-ville, the best beaches in Atlantic Canada (sorry PEI), the best theme parks in Atlantic Canada (sorry Nova Scotia), and the fact that my family lives in New Brunswick is not at all going to prevent me from criticising the Province.

And my criticisms are obvious not because I hate New Brunswick. I fucking love NB. Have I not been clear in my desires for the big three to reform their systems of taxation and subsidisation and re-focus on building up their cores?

I'm saddened by how unsustainable New Brunswick is -- not satisfied. When have I expressed a hope for NB's failure?!....... I'm just as damn excited as all the rest of you about the possible downtown developments in Moncton.

[mylesmalley]

There is a lot more manufacturing done in New Brunswick than a lot of people realize. The really surprising thing is where it happens, too. Your major players are still the mills, the refinery and Irving's myriad outfits and all of McCain's operations, but that's just the tip of the iceberg. Big companies like Apex, Industrial Rubber, Stresscon, Atlantic Wallboard, Ganong Bros, Moosehead, Sunny Corner Industries, Triangle Kitchens, Atlas Structural Systems, Imperial Manufacturing etc. are spread out all over the province. All of these guys 100+ of employees each.

IIRC, the NB Metalworkers Association for example has nearly 250 members and a disproportionate number of them are in rural areas and in the North.

[MonctonRad]

You're forgetting Malley Industries Myles.....

[mylesmalley]

Originally Posted by someone123

There are a bunch of relevant points here. First off, yes, NB has plenty of government jobs. Moncton has one of the highest concentrations of federal workers in Canada for example, and the biggest employer there, unsurprisingly, is the hospital.

You're right that Moncton has a lot of Federal Government jobs, but in real numbers as well as a percentage of the workforce, Halifax has significantly more.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quoti...1128c1-eng.htm

[MonctonRad]

Interesting table Myles, thanks.

Here are the results for Atlantic Canadian CMA's:

Total Federal Government Employees:

- Halifax.......17,400
- St. John's.....5,000
- Moncton.......3,200
- Saint John....1,000

Federal Employment as a Proportion of Total Employment:

- Halifax.......7.7% (rank 3rd)
- St. John's....4.7% (rank 5th)
- Moncton......4.4% (rank 6th)
- Saint John...1.5% (rank 16th)

So, Halifax, St. John's and Moncton all rank in the top six in terms of the importance of federal employment to the local economy. The other top six cities are Ottawa, Kingston and Victoria..........

Federal employment is almost twice as important to the Halifax economy as it is to the Moncton economy and is 5x more important to the Halifax economy than to the Saint John economy.

[mylesmalley]

Worth noting as well on those Moncton numbers. They're from 2011 so they wouldn't include the big cuts to ACOA which is headquartered here. We've also had what's left of the base close in the last few years, and I believe DFO was cutting back as well but I can't remember where I heard that.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by mylesmalley

Worth noting as well on those Moncton numbers. They're from 2011 so they wouldn't include the big cuts to ACOA which is headquartered here. We've also had what's left of the base close in the last few years, and I believe DFO was cutting back as well but I can't remember where I heard that.

Yes, I wouldn't be surprised if Moncton didn't lose at least 300 federal jobs, especially from the reductions at the military detachment. Maybe we are no longer #6..........

[Nashe]

Huh.... That IS interesting. I know the industrial parks here around Moncton are booming, or at least seem to be.

[pierremoncton]

Median and average income by census tract: http://a.tiles.mapbox.com/v3/canadia....1043/-64.7836

I zoomed in on Moncton but data for the entire country is available. The poor are downtown and the rich (relatively) are in Dieppe and Northwest Moncton.

Taken from: http://www.cbc.ca/news/interactives/...ncome-map.html

[MonctonRad]

Further to the above, this is an interesting graphic from cbc.ca showing the percentage of one percenters in select major Canadian cities:



There are three Atlantic Canadian cities on the list. To be "average", one percent of your city's should be "one percenters".

There is only one Atlantic Canadian city which is above average, and that city would be St. John's. Another testament to the power of oil in generating wealth.......

[MonctonRad]

Population Estimates for July 1st, 2013:

____________________________2012________2013_____Net Change___Percent Change
Newfoundland and Labrador.......526,841.......526,700.........-141...............0.0
Prince Edward Island................145,165.......145,237..........+72...............0.0
Nova Scotia.............................945,061.......940,789......-4,272..............-0.5
New Brunswick........................756,997........756,050........-927..............-0.1

Analysis - The population loss in NB last year is disappointing, but at fewer than 1,000 souls could have been much, much worse. The losses in NS on the other hand are cause for much concern. We all know that Halifax is growing at a respectable pace, no doubt to the detriment of the rural areas of the province. Let's say that you add in roughly 5,000 rural Nova Scotians leaving their home communities to move to Halifax on top of the overall population decline in the province of 4,200 and you get a rural population decline of 9-10,000 people in a single year. This is clear evidence of the hollowing out of rural Nova Scotia at a very rapid pace. Just how long can rural NS sustain this rate of population loss without suffering severe consequences? This should be a very important issue for that province. PEI bucked the regional trend and demonstrated population growth during the last year. This however is not new. PEI has been showing steady population growth since the 1970's. As a child, I can remember the population of the Island being about 108,000. Now it is over 145,000. This growth has been slow, steady and continuous......


from CBC



This graph shows detailed information about NB. You can see that the provinces rate of natural increase (births over deaths) remains positive. The net population loss in the province is entirely due to inter-provincial emigration (about 3,000) over immigration (about 2,000). We need to stem the bleeding.......

[Wishblade]

^In regards to the situation in NS, Halifax doesn't gain a lot of residents from rural areas of the province. With the rural areas of the province being primarily made up of blue collar workers, and Halifax being a white collar town, most rural nova scotians tend to move out of province (primarily to Alberta), while the HRM garners most of its growth from other provinces, particularly Ontario.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Wishblade

^In regards to the situation in NS, Halifax doesn't gain a lot of residents from rural areas of the province. With the rural areas of the province being primarily made up of blue collar workers, and Halifax being a white collar town, most rural nova scotians tend to move out of province (primarily to Alberta), while the HRM garners most of its growth from other provinces, particularly Ontario.

I appreciate that, but if that is the case, in some ways it makes it even worse. The missing rural Nova Scotians are still going somewhere, it just means that they are migrating even further afield.

Since we are dealing with "net" figures here; if HRM is net positive by (say) 3,000 people in terms of interprovincial migration in the run of a year, then you have to subtract the same number of people from the rural side of the equation and add it to the intraprovincial migration loss to HRM (say another 1,500 or so) and the net population loss for the province of 4,272 to come up with the actual absolute population loss for rural NS, which in this case would be nearly 9,000 souls.

No matter how you cut it, the population loss for rural NS is extremely serious for the province. The only thing we are arguing about is where they are going. If they are all leaving for AB or ON, then this is even more catastrophic.

[someone123]

The implications for the province as a whole are very different though. What's happening right now is that the worst-off parts of the province are shrinking, and the city's growth is coming from elsewhere so it won't dry up as the rural areas depopulate.

The disproportionately large rural population of the Maritimes is pretty much why the region is poorer than other parts of Canada. This structural problem with the economy has been kept around for decades by government spending. At this point that system can't collapse without causing a lot of pain.

[RyeJay]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I appreciate that, but if that is the case, in some ways it makes it even worse. The missing rural Nova Scotians are still going somewhere, it just means that they are migrating even further afield.

Since we are dealing with "net" figures here; if HRM is net positive by (say) 3,000 people in terms of interprovincial migration in the run of a year, then you have to subtract the same number of people from the rural side of the equation and add it to the intraprovincial migration loss to HRM (say another 1,500 or so) and the net population loss for the province of 4,272 to come up with the actual absolute population loss for rural NS, which in this case would be nearly 9,000 souls.

No matter how you cut it, the population loss for rural NS is extremely serious for the province. The only thing we are arguing about is where they are going. If they are all leaving for AB or ON, then this is even more catastrophic.

Since you seem to enjoy discussing it profusely -- perhaps you should begin a Nova Scotia statistics thread, to avoid going off topic?

[RyeJay]

Originally Posted by someone123

The implications for the province as a whole are very different though. What's happening right now is that the worst-off parts of the province are shrinking, and the city's growth is coming from elsewhere so it won't dry up as the rural areas depopulate.

The disproportionately large rural population of the Maritimes is pretty much why the region is poorer than other parts of Canada. This structural problem with the economy has been kept around for decades by government spending. At this point that system can't collapse without causing a lot of pain.

It's so refreshing in the Atlantic section when you post.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by RyeJay

Since you seem to enjoy discussing it profusely -- perhaps you should begin a Nova Scotia statistics thread, to avoid going off topic?

Actually, I think we should rename this thread the Atlantic Canadian Statistics Thread. It would be inclusive and would help to keep the thread more active. Also, many of the stats available are for the CMAs, only two of which are in NB. If we expanded this to an Atlantic Canadian thread, then we would be able to do comparisons between four CMAs (which I frequently do anyway).