How will COVID-19 affect the rebirth of US cities?

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by dktshb

Density is just one variable and probably not the most important correlating numbers of infections and how it is spreading. My understanding is that a lot of the infections in NY are coming out of Westchester County. Additionally, until the other States can catch up to NY as far as testing capability we really cannot extrapolate what is making the virus spread. CA is terrible with testing right now but much less dense Santa Clara County has many more cases that hyper dense San Francisco County.

Yes, the man who lives in Westchester was the first detection of community spread in New York, and also the source of the major outbreaks in New Jersey, and other states. I think even some cases in Michigan were tied back to him. But I don't think they ever figured out where he picked it up. There was some early speculation that he picked it up on a trip to Miami.

[KB0679]

A NYT article about the benefits of population density, even in the midst of this pandemic. Aside from the criticism of Atlanta during that inclement weather tragedy in 2014, I agree with the article.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by dktshb

Density is just one variable and probably not the most important correlating numbers of infections and how it is spreading. My understanding is that a lot of the infections in NY are coming out of Westchester County. Additionally, until the other States can catch up to NY as far as testing capability we really cannot extrapolate what is making the virus spread. CA is terrible with testing right now but much less dense Santa Clara County has many more cases that hyper dense San Francisco County.

It's the perception. Most people don't look at cities like people on this forum do; they see Westchester County as a suburb of New York thus: New York. My family see Westchester County like that and they live in New York even though New Rochelle kind of looks like where they live (albeit more upscale) but perception.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by 10023

In typical SSP fashion, the first 3 or 4 responses completely ignore the intended topic. Oh, as does the post directly above this one.

Anyway, I don’t think the virus will affect cities (it’s a total non-event in the medium term), but the various degrees of lockdown and the devastating impact on the economy, and in particular tourism and hospitality, certainly will.

Recessions are never good for redevelopment, gentrification, etc., but this is a particularly bad one in terms of what is getting hit hardest. And I hope I am wrong, but I expect that a good portion of the restaurants, bars, independent shops and cultural institutions (i.e., the things that make people want to live in cities) that are being forced to close as a result of this never come back. The restrictions obviously affect urban neighbourhoods to a far greater extent than the suburbs, where people already practice social distancing in normal life.

Yeah, but in the long term won't there still be demand for all those businesses that people go to cities for? People will simply open more restaurants and bars. Hell, have you guys seen the failure rate in that industry in a normal year? It's a wonder anyone ever opens one up in the first place.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

Yeah, but in the long term won't there still be demand for all those businesses that people go to cities for? People will simply open more restaurants and bars. Hell, have you guys seen the failure rate in that industry in a normal year? It's a wonder anyone ever opens one up in the first place.

Yeah I'm not worried about restaurants. I'm more worried about things like theaters/small museums/ etc.

[Qubert]

On a broad US-wide scale, I concur with 10023 in that the amount of people who will directly say "I won't live in a city due to pandemics" is extremely small. However, the incredible damage to small business, street retail, cultural institutions, commerical RE, etc is only just starting to be felt. Cities overall will still chug along but I do think this represents a setback, especially if more and more companies realize they can actually get stuff done remotely.

Locally, I think NYC is going to be in for a rude awaking. The mass finance/wall st exodus that everyone feared after 9/11 might slowly start to become a reality as it dawns on people that trading can occur anywhere. A lot of the small businesses, restaurants and cultural draws of the city might not make it. The MTA is now functionally insolvent and even a bailout might not be enough. Coupled with the general decline of public civility/social order (crime was skyrocketing this year pre-virus), more and more people are going to start to reconsider their lives here.

[mhays]

Transportation networks are designed to at least attempt to address peak commutes. Any substantial increase in online work, school attendance, etc., could help take the edge off. I suspect we're talking a few percent of office workers though, let's say 2-5% of additional office workers on any given day, which even then is just the office workers. If it's a year from now, you also have improved tech.

It might help populate residential areas a tiny bit more during work/school hours, supporting walkable lunch places etc. But the emphasis will be on "tiny" because it's not going to be a big flood of people switching.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Qubert

Locally, I think NYC is going to be in for a rude awaking. The mass finance/wall st exodus that everyone feared after 9/11 might slowly start to become a reality as it dawns on people that trading can occur anywhere.

That already happened, decades ago. The NYSE is technically owned by an exchange in an exurban Atlanta office park. And where trades occur has essentially nothing to do with NYC's financial importance.

Originally Posted by Qubert

A lot of the small businesses, restaurants and cultural draws of the city might not make it. The MTA is now functionally insolvent and even a bailout might not be enough. Coupled with the general decline of public civility/social order (crime was skyrocketing this year pre-virus), more and more people are going to start to reconsider their lives here.

This is all nonsense. The current problems of the MTA are the same as every transit agency on the planet. Crime is at modern-day record-lows. Small businesses and restaurants and institutions are in the same predicament as everywhere else on earth.

Sorry, but gotta say it. Absurd post by homer wishing NYC will fail so their city will somehow benefit, as if a virus respects city limits. The population of cosmopolitans scared of human contact but eager to move from NY to LA as a direct result of Covid-19 is exactly zero.

[Qubert]

Sorry, but gotta say it. Absurd post by homer wishing NYC will fail so their city will somehow benefit, as if a virus respects city limits. The population of cosmopolitans scared of human contact but eager to move from NY to LA as a direct result of Covid-19 is exactly zero.

I live here (NYC), but keep going....

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Qubert

I live here (NYC), but keep going....

Why would you assume that people will permanently fear social contact? And why would you assume that such a fear will only exist in one city? That's your premise.

You're saying that people will be scared to visit the Barclays Center, but not the Staples Center, you're saying that people will be scared to visit a trendy restaurant in Manhattan, but not scared to visit a trendy restaurant on Sunset, that people will be scared to congregate in SoHo or Meatpacking, but not at the Grove or SM. Complete nonsense.

If there is some permanent aversion to human contact, it would affect all metropolitan agglomerations. The average person, in every metro area, has similar degrees of social contact, at work, in school, in social gatherings, etc.

[pdxtex]

I think the footprint of the digital job market is about to change. 2 weeks ago everyone with a computer based job was commuting to an office. Two weeks later everyone is magically sitting on their couch, dressed in flannel pjs and being productive. The peasants are going to storm that castle. Small business will also be appreciated and supported a lot more. At least I hope.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by pdxtex

I think the footprint of the digital job market is about to change. 2 weeks ago everyone with a computer based job was commuting to an office. Two weeks later everyone is magically sitting on their couch, dressed in flannel pjs and being productive. The peasants are going to storm that castle. Small business will also be appreciated and supported a lot more. At least I hope.

Yeah, my experience is that everyone is much less productive right now.

[jtown,man]

This virus hasn't made me more scared of people(although, for the meantime it has); I can't wait for things to get back to normal!

I just saw a commercial with a mom bringing her daughter to work and the kid shakes someone's hand. What a stupid thought to have, but I couldn't help but want that shit back. Shaking someones damn hand. Even waiting in a line seems like a decent way to kill some time, at least I can people watch and listen in to conversations. Sitting down and enjoying a meal in public, going to a movie, having events on campus, going to DISNEY! They all seems amazing right now.

Yeah, this whole thing has taught me a lot of things, chief among them is that I am not as anti-social as I thought.

[ocman]

I don’t know how cities like LA and SF are going to deal with the exploding homeless population that will be caused by these business closures and backruptcies, when they can’t even get their heads above water before all this.

[iheartthed]

The pandemic won't make NYC less attractive. It's not like this is limited to NYC. In fact, I could list a few non-NYC places that are just days behind and will probably end up being worse off after this is all said and done.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

Yeah, my experience is that everyone is much less productive right now.

Yup, same here. You cannot Facetime a nuanced transaction. Every meeting has screaming kids and background distractions.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

The pandemic won't make NYC less attractive.

Don't tell Will Smith that...

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by JManc

Don't tell Will Smith that...

Wasn't NYC technically more attractive in that movie? lol. He could've lived anywhere but stayed there...

[JManc]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Wasn't NYC technically more attractive in that movie? lol. He could've lived anywhere but stayed there...

haha. Good point. And he still picked his awesome townhouse across the street from Washington Square Park. Arguably my favorite part of Manhattan.

[SIGSEGV]

Well shit, looks like assholes assembling in groups have resulted in the lakefront being off-limites now. Thanks losers.