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Originally Posted by 1overcosc
Except intercity traffic isn't really driven by peak hour issues. Intercity traffic is distributed throughout the day. There's increases in evenings especially on Fridays and Sundays, but not nearly as dramatic as the sharp peaks experienced at rush hours for commuter traffic. Walking distance doesn't matter; there's cabs, park and riding, and local transit. Already a large majority of VIA passengers don't access/depart VIA services on foot. Summer weekends is actually among the lowest hanging fruit for rail services; easy enough to draw crowds with fast trains, frequent services, and discounted prices on key weekends. VIA's been aggressively targeting Thanksgiving travellers for the past few years and ridership on that weekend has increased considerably.
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Most traffic on the 401 is fairly local in nature. Certainly traffic on the 401 through Northumberland County doesn't spike during the morning and afternoon like it does say through Ajax, but there are definitely peaks to traffic volumes on the highway.
I'd suggest that if you looked a weekday peak hour morning traffic volumes for any given spot on the 401 through Northumberland County, between 60% to 70% of traffic either originated or is destined for a location either in Durham Region or Northumberland in Hastings Counties. The vast majority of passenger vehicle traffic on the 401 at peak hour is people driving to and from work, or running their daily errands. This type of traffic is unlikely to be cohersed onto via rail given the decentralized nature of the communities that the 401 passes through. For example, it's pretty unlikely someone who lives in Cobourg and works in Port Hope is going to drive to the train station, take the train, and then take the bus or the cab to their final destination. They're simply going to drive that entire distance.
I'd suggest that through traffic between the GTA and Montreal or Ottawa comprises only about 10-15% of total traffic on the corridor during the peak hour. Consider that traffic falling into this category already could have chosen either to take the train or fly between these destinations, but elected not to. There may be a variety of reasons for this decision. It could be that the train or airport isn't conveniently located at either their origin or destination, or they may need their car at their destination (contractors or salespeople for example), or they simply may not like to drive. There may be a few people who would opt for the train if it were faster, however probably not enough to make a real dent in peak hour volumes on the highway.
VIA also is unlikely to drive a lot of summer weekend traffic off of the 401. Summer weekend traffic tends to have an average higher vehicle occupancy level than weekday traffic, and also tends to have origins and destinations that aren't easily accessible from travel modes that aren't accessible by car. Consider getting it to Sandbanks Provincial Park from the train. It's an awful long walk from the Belleville train station to the beach.
Also, consider the Barrie train that now runs on Summer weekends from Toronto to Barrie. In 2013, approximately 41,000 weekend trips were made on the GO line to Barrie. Averaging over approximately 21 weekends, that means that approximately 975 trips were made on the train per day. Considering that summer weekend traffic on nearby Highway 400 averaged between 100,000 to 115,000 vehicles per day, it's noteworthy to point out that train trips comprised of significantly less than 1% of total Highway 400 traffic. And that's just traffic on the 400 corridor, not counting surcharge volume that would be seen on either of the sideroads through Innisfil or along Highway 27. The recreational nature of traffic on the 401 corridor between Oshawa to Kingston really isn't all that different from the 400 up to Barrie.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1overcosc
VIA has already boosted ridership in the Ottawa-Kingston-Toronto corridor more than 30% in the past couple years with nothing more than a handful of additional trains and lower fares. Credible studies show VIA could triple ridership--attracting something in the order of four million additional annual boardings--with dedicated tracks and schedule improvements. Right now the mode share for travel in the corridor is 87% auto, 6% plane, 5% train. A 15% mode share for VIA would eat into auto (most plane trips in the TOM triangle are for onward connections, which aren't likely to be diverted onto rail) reducing it to below 80% over time, slowing down traffic growth.
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Highway 401 traffic volumes can be accessed here:
http://www.raqsb.mto.gov.on.ca/techp...umes.nsf/tvweb
I had a look at traffic volumes for the 401 through Northumberland County. Over the past decade or so, traffic volumes have been growing at about 1% per anum, which is fairly typical for an area of the province such as this that is not exhibiting significant growth. So, evidence would show that VIA's past travel growth within the corridor has not been at the expense of local 401 use within the corridor. Remember, the crux of the argument isn't that VIA is useless, rather that it doesn't negate the need for local highway improvements within the corridor, and that it doesn't provide significant benefits to smaller centres within the corridor.
Based upon traffic volumes within the corridor, it would seem that increases in VIA rail ridership have either had their origin or destination as Downtown Toronto, and has not provided any significant benefit to local travel within the corridor.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1overcosc
Vehicle counts between Cobourg and Kingston would have to increase dramatically above current levels to justify 6 laning, and with VIA able to sap demand growth, that's pushed even further into the future.
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Incorrect.
The 401 was widened from four to six lanes through Oxford County between Woodstock and Cambridge when traffic volumes reached approximately 45,000 vehicles per day. This occurred during the past decade. Several sections of the between Kingston and Cobourg are very close to that threshold, and will require widening within the next ten to fifteen years.
In 2010, traffic volumes were 39,900 between Northumberland County Road 23 and Cobourg. At 1% growth per anum, this stretch of highway should need to be widened by approximately 2020. Between Northumberland County Road 23 and Trenton, traffic is in the 35,000- 38,000 vehicle per day range. This stretch of highway should need widening by 2030. From Trenton to Belleville, traffic volumes are in the 39,000 to 40,000 range, so it should be widened also by 2020 or so. Easterly from Belleville to Kinston, traffic is lower, averaging around 35,000, which probably doesn't put it to much later than 2030 either. Past improvements to VIA haven't done anything to suppress traffic growth, so there is no reason to suspect future improvements will either.
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