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Originally Posted by ssiguy
Not if history is a guide. In the 50s and 60s the big three were making money hand over fist, the industry was booming, wahes skyrocketing, and they had complete command of the North American market. That, however, didn't stop the decline of Detroit.
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This is why I noted in that post that people should not attempt to extrapolate based upon past trends. The VA Bill, Superhighways, cheap fuel and racism (manifesting as white flight) led to a massive suburbanization trend starting in the 50’s. Also, families were much larger, more people were married and most people coveted a large lot to raise their family. Things have changed dramatically since those days. Today fewer women are getting married, fewer women (percentage wise) are having children, gas prices are high and going higher, fewer people are as staunchly racist and all across the country empty nesters and young adults without kids are migrating from the suburbs to the cities.
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Detroit's population peaked at about 1950 and has fallen constistently ever since including huge decline in the 50s and 60s.
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Detroit’s population decline up until the last decade was totally the resultant of white flight. Today however, there are too few whites left in the city to radically destabilize the population as has been the case in previous decades. The African American population peaked circa 2002 at about 800,000. The 2010 census reported that there were only about 600,000 blacks in 2010. I strongly dispute the delta from 2000 to 2010, as noted in a previous thread. Essentially 200,000 blacks left in 7 or 8 years, when in the previous decade the population was increasing. I do not know what the actually numbers are, but I certainly do not agree with the delta. I would say that at the most, 150,000 should be the delta, but likely around 130,000. That said, the black decline that did manifest was mostly result of the housing bubble and fiasco of the previous decade. Without the housing bubble to drive black exodus to the suburbs and without enough whites remaining in the city to make a big difference, the population should stabilize…unless inner-ring suburbs that blacks moved to start experiencing massive white flight and home selling that depresses property values and creates opportunities for Detroiters to move in as renters or home owners.
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Even if there is near full emploument that doesn't mean the city will begin to retore it's population growth or end the urban decay and violence. When people are employed in an area with dirt cheap housing they can live wherever they please. Downtown has to offer more than just a shorter commute to get people to move there. It requires a high quality of life where communities are stable, safe, attractive, offer good educational/health/social services. They want to live in places that make them be glad to be home again after a hard day's work..............Detroit does not offer any of these things.
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Gentrification has been going on in rough neighborhoods in urban areas all across the country for a long time now. Harlem, Atlanta, DC, Chicago, New York and more have all experienced such. In fact, DC , once called “Chocolate City” may lose that label as gentrification is changing the demographic makeup of that city, which was plagued with crime and violence, poor schools and the like. When Detroit momentum really kicks in…….it’s really going to make a dramatic change. Right now people are not convinced yet that a turnaround is nigh but there are certain business leaders that are making moves that will eventually change that perception. People are kind of sitting on their hands waiting for sure signs before they invest. As every investor knows.....you make your money by being ahead of the curve or getting in on developing trends early....which is also probably the riskiest time because its not a sure thing.
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The only thing offers is a good arts and entertainment scene but people can get that by driving downtown when they want to take in a show/game/concert etc. A new streetcar line will not be near enough to entice people to move back and stay in inner city Detroit with other the other infrastructure and liveability that I mentioned.
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I can tell you know that people want the URBAN experience. Young people really desire density, public transit, walkable neighborhoods….and some even covet “Grit”. Many young people are attracted to a gritty looking environment as it contrasts greatly with their manicured boring suburban upbringing. I am not making these trends up. You can see it in Portland, Seattle, Boston, Chicago, Philly and many Southern cities trying to create density in their core, like Atlantic Station in Atlanta.