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  #301  
Old Posted Jan 29, 2014, 9:24 PM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
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No, they only have until the Autumn of 2014. They cannot join later.

Maybe there will be an enlargement later, but it's impossible to tell when. I wouldn't imagine any enlargement before the 2020s in any case, given how conservative the French politicians are.
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  #302  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2014, 11:23 PM
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Some land area and population comparisons.



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  #303  
Old Posted Apr 7, 2014, 12:39 PM
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Comparing with Mitteleuropa.

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  #304  
Old Posted Apr 9, 2014, 9:41 PM
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And now comparing with East Asia.

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  #305  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2014, 5:15 PM
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Don't care about what the Chinese or the South Koreans say about it, they're just spiteful as I am to the Germans , and Japan is just really terrific. Don't say it's not heck of smart or dense when they still famously manage to keep much of their countryside safe from excessive invading urbanization. They're very right about that. We do need beautiful virgin countrysides, too.
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  #306  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2014, 1:49 AM
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The German statistical office has FINALLY published post-censal estimates of Germany's population by ages!! It had been more than 15 years since we hadn't had credible population figures by ages for Germany, given that the last census had taken place in 1987 and the German population estimates were notoriously inaccurate (Germany's population was overestimated).

Unsurprisingly, Germany is aging fast, but it has 'just' managed to avoid being branded as the oldest country in Europe, if we use the share of population 65 y/o and older as the criteria here. The post-censal estimates for Jan. 2013 (the latest published) show that Italy was slightly older than Germany: 20.7% of Germany's population was 65 y/o and older in Jan. 2013, whereas in Italy 21.2% of the population was 65 y/o and older at the same date.

Here are age structure comparisons for Germany, Italy, France, the UK, and Spain in Jan. 2013, all based on post-censal population estimates.

Population whose age is 65 and older:
- Italy: 21.2%
- Germany: 20.7%
- Spain: 17.7%
- France: 17.6%
- UK: 17.0%

Population from age 45 to 64:
- Germany: 29.9% (i.e. 29.9% of Germany's population was 45 to 64 y/o in Jan. 2013)
- Italy: 27.8%
- France: 26.2%
- Spain: 26.2%
- UK: 25.5%

Population from age 20 to 44:
- Spain: 36.3%
- UK: 33.7%
- Italy: 32.3%
- France: 31.6%
- Germany: 31.2%

Population less than 20 y/o:
- France: 24.6% (i.e. 24.6% of France's population was less than 20 y/o in Jan. 2013)
- UK: 23.8%
- Spain: 19.8%
- Italy: 18.7%
- Germany: 18.2%

Considering 65 y/o as the theoretical retirement age for all 5 countries, and 20 y/o the theoretical year for entering the labor market, the figures above show that Germany will see 24.1 million people retire within the next 20 years, whereas 14.7 million people will enter the labor market. Shortfall (with no immigration and emigration): 9.4 million people.

Italy will see 16.6 million people leave the labor force and 11.2 million enter it. Shortfall: 5.4 million people.

Spain will see 12.25 million people leave the labor force and 9.25 million enter it. Shortfall: 3.0 million people.

The UK will see 16.2 million people leave the labor force and 15.1 million enter it. Shortfall: 1.1 million people.

France will see 17.2 million people leave the labor force and 16.1 million enter it. Shortfall: 1.1 million people.

Germany would need a net migration of +469,000 people younger than 45 y/o every year during the next 20 years to keep its current labor force. France would need a net migration of only +53,300 people younger than 45 y/o every year.
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  #307  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2014, 6:55 PM
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The 10 "youngest" and "oldest" regions in Italy, Germany, France, the UK, and Spain in Jan. 2013. Only the regions in Europe are listed here.

Population 65 y/o and older:
- Liguria: 27.7% (i.e. 27.7% of Liguria's population was 65 y/o and older in Jan. 2013)
- Saxony: 24.7%
- Saxony-Anhalt: 24.5%

- Friuli-Venezia Giulia: 24.3%
- Tuscany: 24.2%
- Umbria: 23.8%
- Piedmont: 23.8%

- Limousin: 23.5%
- Thuringia: 23.5%
- Castile and León: 23.3%

Population less than 20 y/o:
- Nord-Pas de Calais: 26.7% (i.e. 26.7% of Nord-Pas de Calais's population was less than 20 y/o in Jan. 2013)
- Northern Ireland: 26.4%
- Picardy: 25.9%
- Paris Region (Île-de-France): 25.9%
- Pays de la Loire: 25.5%
- Upper Normandy: 25.4%
- Rhône-Alpes: 25.3%
- West Midlands: 24.7%
- London Region (Greater London): 24.5%

- Franche-Comté: 24.5%


After 40 years of depressed German fertility, there are now stark contrasts in the age structures of the neighboring regions at the Franco-German border. Alsace has 23.9% of its population which is less than 20 y/o, whereas only 19.6% of Baden-Württemberg's population is less than 20 y/o. Moselle has 22.9% of its population which is less than 20 y/o, whereas only 16.6% of the Saarland population is less than 20 y/o.

22.1% of the people in Saarland are 65 y/o and older, whereas only 16.8% of the people in Moselle are 65 and older. 19.5% of the people in Baden-Württemberg are 65 and older, whereas only 16.3% of the people in Alsace are 65 and older.

These figures suggest that some very interesting phenomenons are going to take place at the Franco-German border in the coming 30 years (more and more Francophone presence in the German border regions probably, both in terms of commuters, shoppers, and probably also dwellers, as is already the case in Kehl, the German suburb of Strasbourg).

Finally, the future ranking of the European regions should change a lot, as some regions have lots of children, whereas other regions have few children and lots of old people who are going to die within the next 30 years.

The 10 most populated regions of It, Ger, Fr, UK, Sp in Jan. 2013 were the following:
1-North Rhine-Westphalia: 17,554,329
2- Bavaria: 12,519,571
3- Paris Region (Île-de-France): 11,978,363
4- Baden-Württemberg: 10,569,111
5- Lombardy: 9,794,525
6- South East England: 8,724,737
7- Andalusia: 8,393,159
8- London Region (Greater London): 8,308,369
9- Lower Saxony: 7,778,995
10- Catalonia: 7,480,921

The 10 regions with the most people less than 20 y/o in Jan. 2013 were the following:
1- North Rhine-Westphalia: 3,320,581
2- Paris Region (Île-de-France): 3,098,719
3- Bavaria: 2,359,433
4- South East England: 2,091,919
5- Baden-Württemberg: 2,066,529
6- London Region (Greater London): 2,038,997
7- Lombardy: 1,834,891
8- Andalusia: 1,833,521
9- North West England: 1,688,317
10- Rhône-Alpes: 1,619,020

If administrative borders remain unchanged, it's quite likely that the Paris Region will become the most populated European region sometime in this century. Lombardy and Catalonia are going to become less and less relevant as economic regions if they don't improve their birth rates, whereas Rhône-Alpes should become one of Europe's top regions (especially if it is enlarged with Auvergne, home of Global Fortune 500's Michelin, as the French government is suggesting at the moment).
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  #308  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2014, 10:06 PM
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It's like immigration doesn't exist at all with you. You're also the champion of projecting short term effects into the (far) future. As well as highlighting hypotheticals that suit your agenda and ignoring the ones that don't.
Your posts could be so much more valuable if you weren't so obviously biased.

Oh and I forgot to mention inventing your own definitions for things that already have (far more credible) definitions.

Those last sentences of the above post are among the most stupid and wishfull thinking things I've read in awhile and ultimately the kind of shit that everyone got tired of on SSC.
And I've already explained to you before that this is not SSC. We don't want city vs city or country vs country around here or agenda driven flamebait threads. Clean up your act and think of more usefull ways to share information around here.
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  #309  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2014, 4:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New Brisavoine View Post
Germany would need a net migration of +469,000 people younger than 45 y/o every year during the next 20 years to keep its current labor force. France would need a net migration of only +53,300 people younger than 45 y/o every year.
If your numbers are correct, that's fascinating. Obviously it's assuming birth rates and the like are constant, but it still means that Germany has very different considerations than France when it comes to in-migration.
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  #310  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2014, 5:29 PM
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If your numbers are correct, that's fascinating. Obviously it's assuming birth rates and the like are constant, but it still means that Germany has very different considerations than France when it comes to in-migration.
Whether the birth rates remain constant or not has no impact here, because the people who will enter the labor force within the next 20 years are already born.
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  #311  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2014, 7:25 PM
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Whether the birth rates remain constant or not has no impact here, because the people who will enter the labor force within the next 20 years are already born.
You're right, you're only looking at the next 20 years, so doesn't matter.

Maybe it's time to bring back the "Guest Worker" era. You can't bring in 500,000 workers (meaning 1 million immigrants, probably) on an annual basis without completely changing the country.
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  #312  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2014, 4:50 PM
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Germany already has a net migration of 300,000-400,000 and rising for a number of years, it's entirely possible if not likely that this number is going to keep rising. Half a million or more is not extraordinary at all.

Off course, according to Brisavoine, Germany is just going to say "well we had a good run, lets not make policy to maintain a healthy labour market and see what happens. Afterall there's this French kid on a Canadian skyscraper forum who's wet dream it is that France will overtake Germany in population so let him have a laugh and throw our country to demographic ruin."
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  #313  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2014, 4:57 PM
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You're right, you're only looking at the next 20 years, so doesn't matter.

Maybe it's time to bring back the "Guest Worker" era. You can't bring in 500,000 workers (meaning 1 million immigrants, probably) on an annual basis without completely changing the country.
Absolute bollocks.

First, a million per year is a gross exaggeration. An annual growth of 1% through immigration is nothing special and would not completely change a country.

There's already a recent precedent for this when Spain grew by >10% between 2000-2008 and it did not completely change the country.
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  #314  
Old Posted Apr 25, 2014, 8:22 PM
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A tale of four cities. I'm adding Milan and Turin to the comparison of Lyon and Munich that I made a few months ago. All figures are from the 2011 censuses of Germany, Italy, and France.



Below, the evolution of population at each census since 1841.

In 1861, Lyon had 382,000 inhabitants in its 309.6 km², whereas Milan had 328,000 inhabitants in its 309.3 km², Turin had 201,000 inhabitants in its 309.6 km², and Munich had 170,000 inhabitants in its 310.7 km².

In 1901, Lyon had 568,000 inhabitants, Milan had 628,000 inhabitants, Turin had 366,000 inhabitants, and Munich had 526,000 inhabitants.

Lyon (in its 309.6 km²) was passed by Milan in 1893, by Munich in 1909, and by Turin in 1936. In recent years, however, Lyon has grown more than its counterparts, both in its overall metro area and in its central areas.

This is the growth rate for all 4 areas of 310 km² between the last censuses:
- Lyon (309.6 km²): +0.75% per year between 2006 and 2011
- Munich (310.7 km²): +0.54% per year between 1987 and 2011 (there was no census in Germany between 1987 and 2011, and Destatis has not published intercensal estimates yet, so we can only calculate an average growth rate between 1987 and 2011)
- Turin (309.6 km²): +0.04% per year between 2001 and 2011
- Milan (309.3 km²): -0.04% per year between 2001 and 2011

At current growth rates, Lyon should pass Turin again in 2017. Whether it will also pass Munich and Milan (in the 310 km² central area) will depend essentially on which density policies are adopted by all three cities (Munich is already a city by itself; the 309.6 km² of Lyon are entirely contained within the Métropole de Lyon, the metropolitan authority which will come into existence in January next year and will be in charge of urban planning; the 309.3 km² of Milan will be entirely contained within the Città Metropolitana di Milano, which, like the Métropole de Lyon, will also come into existence next year and will be in charge of urban planning).



Growth rates from 1841 to 1871:
- Turin (309.6 km²): +1.78% per year (from 1861 to 1871)
- Lyon (309.6 km²): +1.53% per year (+1.90% per year from 1841 to 1866, then a population decline due to the Franco-Prussian war of 1870-1871)
- Munich (310.7 km²): +1.36% per year
- Milan (309.3 km²): +0.75% per year (from 1861 to 1871)

Growth rates from 1871 to 1901:
- Munich (310.7 km²): +3.52% per year
- Milan (309.3 km²): +1.99% per year
- Turin (309.6 km²): +1.45% per year
- Lyon (309.6 km²): +1.31% per year

Growth rates from 1901 to 1921:
- Milan (309.3 km²): +1.99% per year
- Turin (309.6 km²): +1.94% per year
- Munich (310.7 km²): +1.29% per year (from 1901 to 1925)
- Lyon (309.6 km²): +0.41% per year

Growth rates during the interwar period:
- Milan (309.3 km²): +2.23% per year (from 1921 to 1936)
- Turin (309.6 km²): +1.70% per year (from 1921 to 1936)
- Munich (310.7 km²): +1.11% per year (from 1925 to 1939)
- Lyon (309.6 km²): +0.76% per year (from 1921 to 1936)

Growth rates during WW2:
- Milan (309.3 km²): +0.92% per year (from 1936 to 1951)
- Turin (309.6 km²): +0.91% per year (from 1936 to 1951)
- Lyon (309.6 km²): +0.28% per year (from 1936 to 1951)
- Munich (310.7 km²): -0.10% per year (from 1939 to 1950)

Growth rates during the Trente Glorieuses (post-WW2 economic boom):
- Turin (309.6 km²): +3.00% per year (from 1951 to 1971)
- Munich (310.7 km²): +2.27% per year (from 1950 to 1970)
- Milan (309.3 km²): +2.19% per year (from 1951 to 1971)
- Lyon (309.6 km²): +1.61% per year (from 1951 to 1975)

Growth rates from the oil-shock of the 1970s to the fall of the Berlin Wall:
- Lyon (309.6 km²): -0.10% per year (from 1975 to 1990)
- Munich (310.7 km²): -0.51% per year (from 1970 to 1987)
- Turin (309.6 km²): -0.58% per year (from 1971 to 1991)
- Milan (309.3 km²): -0.78% per year (from 1971 to 1991)

Growth rates in the past 20 years:
- Munich (310.7 km²): +0.54% per year (from 1987 to 2011)
- Lyon (309.6 km²): +0.53% per year (from 1990 to 2011)
- Turin (309.6 km²): -0.34% per year (from 1991 to 2011)
- Milan (309.3 km²): -0.37% per year (from 1991 to 2011)
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  #315  
Old Posted May 30, 2014, 12:14 PM
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The population pyramids of France and Germany on Jan. 1, 2013, based on the latest post-censal estimates.

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  #316  
Old Posted May 30, 2014, 6:30 PM
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Immigration to Germany reaches 20-year high
Germany becomes global Nr 2 as destination for immigrants….


Immigrants are flocking to Germany in the biggest numbers in 20 years, including a large increase in arrivals from the crisis-hit countries of southern Europe,
according to official OECD data published on Thursday.


But with the economy growing, labour shortages mounting and unemployment falling, the influx has generated little public protest. That is distinct from other EU member states, such as France and the UK, where immigration is featuring as a central issue in this week’s European parliament elections.

-Germany's foreign population rose by 419,900 to more than 7.6m in 2013
-8.8% of the overall population and a record since the Central Register of Foreigners (AZR) was established in 1967
-Germany has risen from 8th spot in 2009 to 2nd place in 2012 for the number of permanent immigrants (OECD data )

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  #317  
Old Posted May 31, 2014, 1:20 PM
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But with the economy growing, labour shortages mounting and unemployment falling, the influx has generated little public protest. That is distinct from other EU member states, such as France and the UK, where immigration is featuring as a central issue in this week’s European parliament elections.
That's just a loud scared political minority in France. People over here are funny. They're complaining and feeling ashamed about the latest Euro Parliament elections, but 57% of them on electoral registers have been lazy and didn't even vote. Well hey, you're a joke if you complain while not even getting involved in the poll. Most understand that immigration is a positive thing, having brought a lot of fresh air to us. It feels pretty good. On the other hand, I'm not sure stealing the most productive workforce from Africa is a good thing...

A few years ago, Sarkozy had the interesting idea of a Mediterranean trade and cultural union, which was very exciting to us. It would've got all Mediterranean countries including Israel and lots of traditionally Muslim countries into a common trade partnership based on the lovely sea that we all share. But then Mrs Merkel got scared and required us to give up on that project. She saw it as a potential rival of the EU, which was a complete nonsense seen from France. We had to satisfy her anyway, because the Franco-German close partnership remains the ultimate priority given what European history teaches. But Mrs Merkel is annoying. You see? The current German government is actually rather distrustful as well.
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  #318  
Old Posted Jun 3, 2014, 8:15 PM
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Germany on the way to modern immigration society: study - Xinhua
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Researchers at the Berlin Institute for Population and Development said in the study "New potential" presented in Berlin on Tuesday that Germany is already on the path to a modern immigration society.

In the study, the authors welcome the current strong highly-skilled immigrants from abroad and warn at the same time against the consequences of the missed integration.

The study said, Germany opens more and more to people from other countries and is developing slowly but surely into a modern country of immigration, which has very positive consequences.
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  #319  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2014, 12:26 PM
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"Germany needs a targeted and coherent integration policy to consolidate Germany's reputation as an attractive country of immigration,"

Why exactly? A country doesn't "need" immigration; it can choose to do so, but there is no obligation for a country to open borders for all.

If Germany just increased its birthrate slightly there would be much-reduced need for immigration. France has a fraction of Germany's immigration yet much faster population growth, and they are similar enough that Germany could adopt much of the French family support model.
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  #320  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2014, 5:56 PM
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they are similar enough that Germany could adopt much of the French family support model.
It's not so simple. France and Germany are radically different when it comes to family orientations. It's like comparing New England and the Deep South.
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