A tale of four cities. I'm adding Milan and Turin to the comparison of Lyon and Munich that I made a few months ago. All figures are from the 2011 censuses of Germany, Italy, and France.
Below, the evolution of population at each census since 1841.
In 1861, Lyon had 382,000 inhabitants in its 309.6 km², whereas Milan had 328,000 inhabitants in its 309.3 km², Turin had 201,000 inhabitants in its 309.6 km², and Munich had 170,000 inhabitants in its 310.7 km².
In 1901, Lyon had 568,000 inhabitants, Milan had 628,000 inhabitants, Turin had 366,000 inhabitants, and Munich had 526,000 inhabitants.
Lyon (in its 309.6 km²) was passed by Milan in 1893, by Munich in 1909, and by Turin in 1936. In recent years, however, Lyon has grown more than its counterparts, both in its overall metro area and in its central areas.
This is the growth rate for all 4 areas of 310 km² between the last censuses:
- Lyon (309.6 km²):
+0.75% per year between 2006 and 2011
- Munich (310.7 km²):
+0.54% per year between 1987 and 2011
(there was no census in Germany between 1987 and 2011, and Destatis has not published intercensal estimates yet, so we can only calculate an average growth rate between 1987 and 2011)
- Turin (309.6 km²):
+0.04% per year between 2001 and 2011
- Milan (309.3 km²):
-0.04% per year between 2001 and 2011
At current growth rates, Lyon should pass Turin again in 2017. Whether it will also pass Munich and Milan (in the 310 km² central area) will depend essentially on which density policies are adopted by all three cities (Munich is already a city by itself; the 309.6 km² of Lyon are entirely contained within the Métropole de Lyon, the metropolitan authority which will come into existence in January next year and will be in charge of urban planning; the 309.3 km² of Milan will be entirely contained within the Città Metropolitana di Milano, which, like the Métropole de Lyon, will also come into existence next year and will be in charge of urban planning).
Growth rates from 1841 to 1871:
- Turin (309.6 km²):
+1.78% per year (from 1861 to 1871)
- Lyon (309.6 km²):
+1.53% per year (+1.90% per year from 1841 to 1866, then a population decline due to the Franco-Prussian war of 1870-1871)
- Munich (310.7 km²):
+1.36% per year
- Milan (309.3 km²):
+0.75% per year (from 1861 to 1871)
Growth rates from 1871 to 1901:
- Munich (310.7 km²):
+3.52% per year
- Milan (309.3 km²):
+1.99% per year
- Turin (309.6 km²):
+1.45% per year
- Lyon (309.6 km²):
+1.31% per year
Growth rates from 1901 to 1921:
- Milan (309.3 km²):
+1.99% per year
- Turin (309.6 km²):
+1.94% per year
- Munich (310.7 km²):
+1.29% per year (from 1901 to 1925)
- Lyon (309.6 km²):
+0.41% per year
Growth rates during the interwar period:
- Milan (309.3 km²):
+2.23% per year (from 1921 to 1936)
- Turin (309.6 km²):
+1.70% per year (from 1921 to 1936)
- Munich (310.7 km²):
+1.11% per year (from 1925 to 1939)
- Lyon (309.6 km²):
+0.76% per year (from 1921 to 1936)
Growth rates during WW2:
- Milan (309.3 km²):
+0.92% per year (from 1936 to 1951)
- Turin (309.6 km²):
+0.91% per year (from 1936 to 1951)
- Lyon (309.6 km²):
+0.28% per year (from 1936 to 1951)
- Munich (310.7 km²):
-0.10% per year (from 1939 to 1950)
Growth rates during the Trente Glorieuses (post-WW2 economic boom):
- Turin (309.6 km²):
+3.00% per year (from 1951 to 1971)
- Munich (310.7 km²):
+2.27% per year (from 1950 to 1970)
- Milan (309.3 km²):
+2.19% per year (from 1951 to 1971)
- Lyon (309.6 km²):
+1.61% per year (from 1951 to 1975)
Growth rates from the oil-shock of the 1970s to the fall of the Berlin Wall:
- Lyon (309.6 km²):
-0.10% per year (from 1975 to 1990)
- Munich (310.7 km²):
-0.51% per year (from 1970 to 1987)
- Turin (309.6 km²):
-0.58% per year (from 1971 to 1991)
- Milan (309.3 km²):
-0.78% per year (from 1971 to 1991)
Growth rates in the past 20 years:
- Munich (310.7 km²):
+0.54% per year (from 1987 to 2011)
- Lyon (309.6 km²):
+0.53% per year (from 1990 to 2011)
- Turin (309.6 km²):
-0.34% per year (from 1991 to 2011)
- Milan (309.3 km²):
-0.37% per year (from 1991 to 2011)