The U.S. Apartment Boom, Measured in Construction Cranes

[montréaliste]

The only explanation I can summon is that these guys have picked up all the limited contract dates from crane operator leases. Some contracts are not extended beyond certain dates, others just don't show up in data.

[mhays]

They probably omitted entire companies.

[YSL]

fake news fake news fake news

[ChargerCarl]

Seattle probably is number 1 though.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by ChargerCarl

Seattle probably is number 1 though.

No.

NYC is number 1.

And it's not even anywhere remotely fucking close for any other US city.

[ChargerCarl]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

No.

NYC is number 1.

And it's not even anywhere remotely fucking close for any other US city.

For cranes yes, but for multifamily units?

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by ChargerCarl

For cranes yes, but for multifamily units?

Definitely. NYC proper has over 300 highrise buildings u/c per Emporis and 53,000 residential units (almost all multifamily) were permitted in 2015 (permitting tends to lag construction by 1-2 years in NYC).

I would guess Seattle is no better than top 5 in terms of cranes or multifamily. NYC, LA, Miami are definitely ahead. Chicago and Philly are probably ahead in cranes and Boston, DC and SF are probably comparable in multifamily.

[the urban politician]

NYC has 300 high rises u/c? Even for New York that doesn't sound right

[C.]

Originally Posted by ChargerCarl

For cranes yes, but for multifamily units?

38,815 units u/c in NYC as of 2015. That number has probably increased since then.

I'm guessing Seattle is nowhere close?

[chris08876]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

NYC has 300 high rises u/c? Even for New York that doesn't sound right

Its right in the sense, but under counted. Emporis looks at 100 ft /10 to 12 floors as high rises. There are a crap load of high rises from the 100 ft to 140 ft range u/c. But even than, the figure of 308 highrises u/c is under counted.

Just scroll though just 100 posts of the high rise compilation and you'll know what I mean. A shitload of projects in the 12-17 floor range. 364 of them per Emporis planned which given the influx of news daily on new high rises, I'd wager its slightly higher.

After NY, Miami is 2nd.

[Ant131531]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Definitely. NYC proper has over 300 highrise buildings u/c per Emporis and 53,000 residential units (almost all multifamily) were permitted in 2015 (permitting tends to lag construction by 1-2 years in NYC).

I would guess Seattle is no better than top 5 in terms of cranes or multifamily. NYC, LA, Miami are definitely ahead. Chicago and Philly are probably ahead in cranes and Boston, DC and SF are probably comparable in multifamily.

Not at all. Dallas is top 3. As I said before, if you look at apartments U/C, Dallas is the 1st most at 45k apartments U/C at the moment with 23k delivering this year alone.



This is the chart for projected multi-family completions in 2017. Lines up fairly well with the cities with the most multi-family permitting over the last couple of years.

[Ant131531]

Originally Posted by CIA

38,815 units u/c in NYC as of 2015. That number has probably increased since then.

I'm guessing Seattle is nowhere close?

It's not surprising if you look at city growth numbers between the two since 2010.

NYC grew from 8,174,962 in 2010 to 8,550,405 in 2015. That's 375,443 people in 5 years or an average of 75k people per year.

Seattle grew from 608,659 in 2010 to 684,541 in 2015. That's 75,792 people in 5 years or an average of 15.2k people per year.

So yeah, NYC was on average growing Seattle's 5 year growth in 1 year. Not to mention, just about all of NYC's growth is in the form of multi-family, where as Seattle's is probably also in combination with single family homes(in the outer edges of the city proper and townhomes(which don't require cranes).

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Ant131531

It's not surprising if you look at city growth numbers between the two since 2010.

Highrise housing construction stats have nothing to do with population growth stats.

There is no reason to think that the two factors would be related.

[Ant131531]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Highrise housing construction stats have nothing to do with population growth stats.

There is no reason to think that the two factors would be related.

Are you kidding me? What else would spur highrise construction especially in NYC where there's no space to build anything but highrises?

I mean, logic would imply if you look at the city population growth stats between NYC(which is probably the world's leader in highrise count) and Seattle, it's fairly obvious why NYC has hundreds more highrises U/C.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Ant131531

Not at all. Dallas is top 3. As I said before, if you look at apartments U/C, Dallas is the 1st most at 45k apartments U/C at the moment with 23k delivering this year alone.

We're talking about urban, highrise housing, no? Dallas isn't even in the conversation.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Ant131531

Are you kidding me? What else would spur highrise construction especially in NYC where there's no space to build anything but highrises?

No, I am absolutely not kidding you.

Why would you think population growth is related to highrise construction? How does that even make a hint of sense?

Chicago has the worst population loss in the nation, and is among the top cities for urban highrise construction. Dallas has the greatest population growth in the nation, and has almost no urban, highrise construction.

And you've never been to NYC if you think that "there's no space to build anything but highrises". That isn't even remotely true in Manhattan.

Originally Posted by Ant131531

I mean, logic would imply if you look at the city population growth stats between NYC(which is probably the world's leader in highrise count) and Seattle, it's fairly obvious why NYC has hundreds more highrises U/C.

No, that wouldn't make any sense whatsoever.

Why do you assume that the net new growth is necessarily going in the 1% of the city that's new housing, rather than in the other 99%? How is that logical?

Putting aside the fact you're comparing two unrelated govt. datasets; one a count, the other a sample, why wouldn't the added population just result in, say, marginally higher household sizes, or marginally increased occupancy rates?

Why would you assume all the growth amazingly happens to be the exact same people who are in the market for an urban condo tower?

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by chris08876

After NY, Miami is 2nd.

In number of active 12+ story buildings u/c?

I don't know, Chicago is really ripping them out now, but you could be right. I'm curious

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by chris08876

Its right in the sense, but under counted. Emporis looks at 100 ft /10 to 12 floors as high rises. There are a crap load of high rises from the 100 ft to 140 ft range u/c. But even than, the figure of 308 highrises u/c is under counted.

Just scroll though just 100 posts of the high rise compilation and you'll know what I mean. A shitload of projects in the 12-17 floor range. 364 of them per Emporis planned which given the influx of news daily on new high rises, I'd wager its slightly higher.

After NY, Miami is 2nd.

I don't believe New York is undercounted. If you are talking 12 story buildings, 300 active under construction projects seems awfully high even for the big apple

[C.]

Originally Posted by Ant131531

Not at all. Dallas is top 3. As I said before, if you look at apartments U/C, Dallas is the 1st most at 45k apartments U/C at the moment with 23k delivering this year alone.



This is the chart for projected multi-family completions in 2017. Lines up fairly well with the cities with the most multi-family permitting over the last couple of years.

Is this only for multi-family rentals or does it also include condos? NYC number seems low.

[Ant131531]

Originally Posted by CIA

Is this only for multi-family rentals or does it also include condos? NYC number seems low.

Just multi-family rentals.