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  #41  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2020, 4:14 AM
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Originally Posted by chris08876 View Post
Stop all construction in NYC now: Brooklyn City Council member urges suspension of activity during coronavirus outbreak


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I’m in the middle of having my roof recoated with an elastomeric coating (something my type of roof needs roughly every 5 years). Today I called the contractor to “just check in and make sure you aren’t hiding in your basement” as I told him. We both laughed.
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  #42  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2020, 4:23 AM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
I agree with this comment. We are heading into something that none of us have ever witnessed before in an advanced economy.
Actually, there’s not much about the coronavirus that should retard construction. Unlike office work, it doesn’t crowd people together in confined spaces. In fact it’s mostly outside. But the tesl problem is the financing, design work and other indoor aspects of development, much of which is more dependent on the state of the economy and our financial health than anything.

I don’t think anybody quite knows what the economy will be like when the epidemic is over. It could be like a compressed version of post-war economies which tend to boom. Or it could be so damaged that the slump persists much longer than the virus. Still, on this will depend what happens to construction and development.
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  #43  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2020, 4:27 AM
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I kinda think folks are taking the extreme on this. I mean, its not like this is some airborne Ebola-like virus that kills 90% of folks. If that scenario was present... oh hell yeah, we gotta grind the world to a halt ASAP.

But it is human nature to panic.

Hopefully skyscraper construction isn't stifled for long. Lots in the pipeline, at least in NYC.
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  #44  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2020, 4:29 AM
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Originally Posted by Pedestrian View Post
I don’t think anybody quite knows what the economy will be like when the epidemic is over. It could be like a compressed version of post-war economies which tend to boom. Or it could be so damaged that the slump persists much longer than the virus. Still, on this will depend what happens to construction and development.
I think folks are taking the August/July thing to heart too much. I suppose in 2 weeks time, we may have a better outlook on how things may turn out. April really.

Hopefully some sort of stabilization could occur (example being China seeing the curve flatten). Only in the U.S..
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  #45  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2020, 5:50 AM
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A report from February had scenarios from 200,000 to 1,700,000 deaths in the US if we did nothing. It can be pretty bad even if it's not an armageddon scenario.
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  #46  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2020, 3:25 PM
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Originally Posted by mhays View Post
A report from February had scenarios from 200,000 to 1,700,000 deaths in the US if we did nothing. It can be pretty bad even if it's not an armageddon scenario.
Yes. If the measures work, people will complain that they were worse than the disease. That's the point!
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  #47  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2020, 3:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Pedestrian View Post
Actually, there’s not much about the coronavirus that should retard construction. Unlike office work, it doesn’t crowd people together in confined spaces. In fact it’s mostly outside. But the tesl problem is the financing, design work and other indoor aspects of development, much of which is more dependent on the state of the economy and our financial health than anything.

I don’t think anybody quite knows what the economy will be like when the epidemic is over. It could be like a compressed version of post-war economies which tend to boom. Or it could be so damaged that the slump persists much longer than the virus. Still, on this will depend what happens to construction and development.
Large construction projects should stop just like everything else. Not sure why those would be any less susceptible than any other large gathering of humans. Contractors doing roof repairs on private homes is probably not a big deal.

As for the economy, we've never seen this type of disruption in any advanced economy before, let alone all of them at the same time. The airlines are already saying that they will need a bailout to survive this year, and we're only on day two of our national quasi-lockdown. Not to mention all of the small businesses that will collapse, large corporations that might collapse, and the coming severe pullback in consumer spending. We will be in a completely different economic landscape in June than we were in January.

The owner of the cafe next to my apartment building told me yesterday that he did not expect his shop to survive. That was even before New York's ban on bars and restaurants even took effect.
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  #48  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2020, 3:55 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
Large construction projects should stop just like everything else. Not sure why those would be any less susceptible than any other large gathering of humans. Contractors doing roof repairs on private homes is probably not a big deal.

As for the economy, we've never seen this type of disruption in any advanced economy before, let alone all of them at the same time. The airlines are already saying that they will need a bailout to survive this year, and we're only on day two of our national quasi-lockdown. Not to mention all of the small businesses that will collapse, large corporations that might collapse, and the coming severe pullback in consumer spending. We will be in a completely different economic landscape in June than we were in January.

The owner of the cafe next to my apartment building told me yesterday that he did not expect his shop to survive. That was even before New York's ban on bars and restaurants even took effect.
Yes we have all grown accustomed to a a big fantasy which is that there are no disruptions. A blessing and a curse of modern security.

The pull back for 2nd quarter and probably third quarter will be extremely sharp. I am hoping that there is a combination of company PR and government relief to at least stave off some of the issues of no economic activity.

For example: City of Mesa is not going to shut off utilities for lack of payment until this is over, The student loan interest wave, Increased access to paid leave and unemployment benefits, Facebook is giving add-buys a stay etc.

This will all help people weather the next month or so.

I mean keep in mind, its not like bankruptcy court is working at full capacity, its not like major banks and large commercial entities arent equally hampered in all of this, so nothing is moving even accounts receivable.

You cant shut down the positives of economic activity (people making money, people getting goods and services) without also shutting the negatives. Its not like any army of repo-men are about to go out and take everyone's cars. (where would they keep them? Who would they sell them too?)

But just as sharp as this pullback is about to be, once the panic of the virus begins to clear the return will be equally sharp. There will be a lot of pent up demand exploding on the market all at once for the end of the year.

And if it doesnt ad we all die it is irrelevant anyway
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  #49  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2020, 4:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Obadno View Post
Yes we have all grown accustomed to a a big fantasy which is that there are no disruptions. A blessing and a curse of modern security.

The pull back for 2nd quarter and probably third quarter will be extremely sharp. I am hoping that there is a combination of company PR and government relief to at least stave off some of the issues of no economic activity.

I mean keep in mind, its not like bankruptcy court is working at full capacity, its not like major banks and large commercial entities arent equally hampered in all of this, so nothing is moving even accounts receivable.

You cant shut down the positives of economic activity (people making money, people getting goods and services) without also shutting the negatives. Its not like any army of repo-men are about to go out and take everyone's cars. (where would they keep them? Who would they sell them too?)

But just as sharp as this pullback is about to be, once the panic of the virus begins to clear the return will be equally sharp. There will be a lot of pent up demand exploding on the market all at once for the end of the year.

And if it doesnt ad we all die it is irrelevant anyway
Yeah, it could bounce back and that would certainly be the most preferable outcome for just about all of us. I don't think it will happen that way if there isn't some government intervention.

If the government was able to pause the economy, somehow, and let the virus fizzle out, then restart it in 1-3 months, that would be the best chance. Pausing the economy would mean pausing all payments on just about everything. And making sure as many people as possible had enough money in their pocket to cover the basics for the duration of the crisis, and some form of payment to service providers to keep them afloat and providing services throughout the duration. Other than that, a lot of people will end up in a financial hole that they are not prepared to be in, or could ever anticipate would happen, and they will be preoccupied with digging out of that hole for many months or years.

ETA: I've got my ear to the street and just heard that the government is seriously moving towards sending checks directly to everyone. That's a good sign for how quickly we recover.
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  #50  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2020, 4:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
Yeah, it could bounce back and that would certainly be the most preferable outcome for just about all of us. I don't think it will happen that way if there isn't some government intervention.

If the government was able to pause the economy, somehow, and let the virus fizzle out, then restart it in 1-3 months, that would be the best chance. Pausing the economy would mean pausing all payments on just about everything. And making sure as many people as possible had enough money in their pocket to cover the basics for the duration of the crisis, and some form of payment to service providers to keep them afloat and providing services throughout the duration. Other than that, a lot of people will end up in a financial hole that they are not prepared to be in, or could ever anticipate would happen, and they will be preoccupied with digging out of that hole for many months or years.

ETA: I've got my ear to the street and just heard that the government is seriously moving towards sending checks directly to everyone. That's a good sign for how quickly we recover.

Don't put your ear to the street. Just. Don't.
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  #51  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2020, 4:25 PM
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Construction projects can enact pretty moderate measures and be one of the safer occupations. For example one or two trades can (and typically do) cycle through an area at a time. Morning safety huddles (often with warm-ups) can be limited to a few related trades. Standard cleanliness and etiquette can help with the rest.
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  #52  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2020, 5:38 PM
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In Boston, at least in the short term, all construction is ordered to halt.
https://www.constructiondive.com/new...uction/574294/
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  #53  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2020, 5:48 PM
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This is San Francisco's tallest project presently under construction. The notice is 4 days old and I'm not sure how it's affected by the order yesterday to "shelter in place" but at least it shows the developer and contractor's intention to move ahead:

Quote:
March 13, 2020 Update
Below are some important updates regarding the Oceanwide Center project:

This notice is to confirm upcoming night work in the area beginning in two weeks. Mitchell will continue site utility work for the Oceanwide Center development. This includes the installation of storm drain laterals and other site utilities along First Street. High impact noise is expected from 8PM-12AM followed by low impact noise from 12AM-6AM. Please note that this work is required to be performed in the evenings to reduce the impacts on vehicular traffic on First St. We will keep you updated with more information as this work is scheduled.
https://swinertonwebcor.com/updates/
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  #54  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2020, 5:55 PM
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Isn't SF presently on lockdown? How do the building trades get to the site? I'm guessing a relatively small proportion of SF hardhats live in the city.
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  #55  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2020, 5:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Isn't SF presently on lockdown? How do the building trades get to the site? I'm guessing a relatively small proportion of SF hardhats live in the city.
That's what I said--this notice predated the "lockdown" although I don't think there's any prohibition on driving. The "shelter in place" order says "except for essential" travel/movement and it leaves the term "essential" pretty much undefined.

I'm planning on driving back to San Francisco the last weekend in April and I don't expect anyone to stop me. Actually, I'm hoping the traffic will be exceptionally light and that's a good thing.
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  #56  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2020, 3:53 AM
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After 9/11 back in 2001 there were many articles written proclaiming the end of the skyscraper.
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  #57  
Old Posted Apr 13, 2020, 11:08 PM
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before all of this insanity, Hines was due to start construction on a new large office tower here in chicago this spring. with anchor tenant Salesforce already signed on, it is proposed to be ~1.5M SF and 835' tall.

we've heard that financing has already been lined up, and with Hines, that's generally a pretty safe bet under normal circumstances, but we are no longer under normal circumstances.

it will be very interesting to see what happens with this one in the coming weeks/months. it could be the canary in a coal mine.

Good news!

The above project landed a $500M construction loan today!

That's a most welcome sign for large scale office construction during all of the current madness.
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  #58  
Old Posted Apr 14, 2020, 2:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicago Tribune
Salesforce Tower lands $500 million-plus loan; construction of 60-story office building kicks off along Chicago River despite coronavirus slowdown



By RYAN ORI
CHICAGO TRIBUNE |
APR 13, 2020 | 3:50 PM

Development of the 60-story Salesforce Tower office has kicked off along the Chicago River after the project secured a $500 million-plus construction loan that is one of the largest in Chicago history.

Financing was finalized amid a major economic slowdown resulting from the coronavirus pandemic, which has put into question the fates of big real estate projects throughout the world.


https://www.chicagotribune.com/colum...ivq-story.html
Site prep beginning. . .

https://app.oxblue.com/open/hineschicago/wolfpointeast

. . .
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  #59  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2020, 3:56 PM
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Originally Posted by austlar1 View Post
I have a sinking feeling that the office building boom is over for a good little while, but that's because I believe we are on the precipice of a real depression rather than a simple recession. I just hope the buildings currently under construction (office and residential) are completed. It would be morale busting to look at stalled out partially completed buildings. They were a common sight in the early years of the Great Depression. Even construction on the Empire State Building was halted for a year or so. Ditto Rockefeller Center.
The 2008 ''Great Recession'' was a depression; no one wanted to use the "D". Lots of partially completed in many places; Chicago had some of these from the The Sprire 'hole'' to Wacker Drive.

The Empire State Building construction was not halted; in fact, it was built at in unbelievable of 13 months (March 1930-April 1931) with the grand opening on May 1, 1931. Actual construction of the ESB took a year or so and wasn't halted a year or so.

Rockefeller Center wasn't bogged down by the Depression either as the development of the 22 acre site went on throughout the '30s.

These two NYC projects actually helped boost morale during the Depression as they created 10,000s of jobs.
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  #60  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2020, 5:30 PM
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Great news! Thanks.
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