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  #61  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2019, 1:48 PM
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yuriandrade yuriandrade is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Again, that's a function of politics, not demand. If the U.S. wanted more, say, Brazilian migrants, it would receive more. The relative birthrates are irrelevant. Brazilian professional salaries and opportunities generally aren't comparable, so a share of the population would migrate if given an opportunity.
You clearly went full wishful thinking here. What is preventing those tens of millions of Brazilian professionals to move to the US, Canada or Europe today?

They have a good life and good salaries down there, that's why they are not moving today nor will tomorrow, unless the country goes through a total collapse.

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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
LOL, no. If that were true, Europe would have the highest birthrates on the planet, and it has among the lowest. No wealthy country is gonna grow due to birthrates.
New Zealand, France, Ireland, United Kingdom, even the United States.

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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Because of politics. Has zero to do with growing/shrinking populations. Mexico/Central America are still growing quickly, BTW, yet immigration is plummeting.

South American migration is essentially irrelevent to U.S., excepting NYC and Miami. You meet very few South Americans in the U.S. outside those two cities.
Shrinking countries will send always shrinking numbers of immigrants. That's mathematics, it's not open to discussion.

The United States will need 2 million immigrants/year to keep growing at current rates for the next decades.

Could you tell us where will you pull those "talented" 2 million?
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  #62  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2019, 3:31 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is online now
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
You clearly went full wishful thinking here. What is preventing those tens of millions of Brazilian professionals to move to the US, Canada or Europe today?

They have a good life and good salaries down there, that's why they are not moving today nor will tomorrow, unless the country goes through a total collapse.
This is anecdotal, but I know quite a few Brazilian professionals who have relocated to the U.S. I also know one who was unable to obtain an H1b visa and opted to relocate to Canada instead of returning to Brazil.
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  #63  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2019, 4:17 PM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post


Shrinking countries will send always shrinking numbers of immigrants. That's mathematics, it's not open to discussion.

The United States will need 2 million immigrants/year to keep growing at current rates for the next decades.

Could you tell us where will you pull those "talented" 2 million?
Population decline is a gradual process. China is facing shrinking birthrates and an ageing population but their population is still predicted to peak at around 1.4 billion in 10-15 years compared to 1.3 billion now before it begins to drop. Even then, China will still have roughly a billion by the end of the century. Sub-Saharan Africa and India will continue to fuel global population growth for the foreseeable future. The 2 million immigrants the US needs won't be an obstacle for centuries.

As for the US, our birthrate is below replacement levels and the population is growing due to immigration but even their birthrates are dropping.
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  #64  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2019, 5:14 PM
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"Duval County is home to distribution centers for Amazon and Wayfair."

Is this what they are considering "talent?" If so this list doesn't mean much.
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  #65  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2019, 5:16 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
This is anecdotal, but I know quite a few Brazilian professionals who have relocated to the U.S. I also know one who was unable to obtain an H1b visa and opted to relocate to Canada instead of returning to Brazil.
Indeed, it's anedoctal. Brazilian middle-class (in the sense US sense of the term), might be around 30 million or so people. Those individuals average age is considerably higher than the national average, and it's probably above the US. That alone would cut this number to 10-15 million individuals that are in "migration age", and the US would have to compete against Canada and Western Europe.

As they have relatively good lives and Brazilians are not prone to migrate, even domestically, one cannot count on those people as a reliable source of immigration in the future. The same apply for the rest of South America.

Only Africa could provide migrants in the future, but they will hardly produce 2 million of "talented" immigrants each year.
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  #66  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2019, 5:24 PM
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
Population decline is a gradual process. China is facing shrinking birthrates and an ageing population but their population is still predicted to peak at around 1.4 billion in 10-15 years compared to 1.3 billion now before it begins to drop. Even then, China will still have roughly a billion by the end of the century. Sub-Saharan Africa and India will continue to fuel global population growth for the foreseeable future. The 2 million immigrants the US needs won't be an obstacle for centuries.

As for the US, our birthrate is below replacement levels and the population is growing due to immigration but even their birthrates are dropping.
China also doesn't have a lot of foreign immigrants, and it is hard to see how that will change in the foreseeable future. Unlike China, where birthrates mean everything for whether their population will decline, in the U.S. birthrates are only a factor in the trajectory of our population.

Since 1) the U.S. has liberal immigration policies and has developed social tolerances for it, and 2) is the undisputed preferred destination of migrants, this country is about as immune to population stagnation/decline as any place can ever hope to be.
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  #67  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2019, 5:27 PM
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
Population decline is a gradual process. China is facing shrinking birthrates and an ageing population but their population is still predicted to peak at around 1.4 billion in 10-15 years compared to 1.3 billion now before it begins to drop. Even then, China will still have roughly a billion by the end of the century. Sub-Saharan Africa and India will continue to fuel global population growth for the foreseeable future. The 2 million immigrants the US needs won't be an obstacle for centuries.

As for the US, our birthrate is below replacement levels and the population is growing due to immigration but even their birthrates are dropping.
Indeed it's a gradual process, as larger cohorts of the past will produce enough children to replace population for at least 30 years after TFR goes below 2.0.

The problem starts before the population decline, as the growing numbers of old people put pressure on the public spending.

And what I'm arguing since the beginning is not that the US will start declining any time soon, but that those huge double-digit/decade growth rates will no longer happen and that, of course, will reflect on lower metropolitan growth rates everywhere, including the Sun Belt.
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  #68  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2019, 5:49 PM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
Indeed, it's anedoctal. Brazilian middle-class (in the sense US sense of the term), might be around 30 million or so people. Those individuals average age is considerably higher than the national average, and it's probably above the US. That alone would cut this number to 10-15 million individuals that are in "migration age", and the US would have to compete against Canada and Western Europe.

As they have relatively good lives and Brazilians are not prone to migrate, even domestically, one cannot count on those people as a reliable source of immigration in the future. The same apply for the rest of South America.
From the prospective of a professional working in the U.S., Brazilian professionals working in the U.S. are not rare. Just to be clear, I'm not claiming that Brazil is a huge source of immigrants to the U.S., but it is also not zero. Brazil was #11 for country of birth of in terms of U.S. H1b visas issued in 2017.

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...end-tables.pdf


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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
Only Africa could provide migrants in the future, but they will hardly produce 2 million of "talented" immigrants each year.
Africa is a relatively untapped source of immigrants to the U.S., but certain African immigrant populations are the best performing immigrant groups. It is only a matter of time before the numbers increase:

https://www.ozy.com/fast-forward/the...ise-you/86885/
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  #69  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2019, 7:38 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
From the prospective of a professional working in the U.S., Brazilian professionals working in the U.S. are not rare. Just to be clear, I'm not claiming that Brazil is a huge source of immigrants to the U.S., but it is also not zero. Brazil was #11 for country of birth of in terms of U.S. H1b visas issued in 2017.

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...end-tables.pdf
According to the chart, it's only 2,000/year average on the past eleven years. Negligible, be it by the size of Brazilian middle-class population as by the US immigration needs.
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  #70  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2019, 7:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
From the prospective of a professional working in the U.S., Brazilian professionals working in the U.S. are not rare. Just to be clear, I'm not claiming that Brazil is a huge source of immigrants to the U.S., but it is also not zero. Brazil was #11 for country of birth of in terms of U.S. H1b visas issued in 2017.

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...end-tables.pdf




Africa is a relatively untapped source of immigrants to the U.S., but certain African immigrant populations are the best performing immigrant groups. It is only a matter of time before the numbers increase:

https://www.ozy.com/fast-forward/the...ise-you/86885/
Probably because they only take the top 5%. They're much more strict with Black African immigrants than any other ethnic/racial group in the world. That's why Nigerian Americans are the top 3 performing ethnic groups in America today. Unfortunately it causes brain drain on these countries and it's hard to develop without intelligent, talented people.

Western countries basically suck away the talent from these developing countries, then cry when these countries can't develop into fully functioning countries on their own....but with declining brithrates around most of the world, there's only but so much talent to go around.
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  #71  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2019, 7:52 PM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
Shrinking countries will send always shrinking numbers of immigrants. That's mathematics, it's not open to discussion.
Yes, it is open to discussion. That would be true if for every 100 people who apply to immigrate to the US, 100 got to come into the country. That isn't the case though. So, pulling numbers out of thin air, its more like 100 people out of 250 get into the US who apply from country (A). So if now there are only 200 people applying from country (A), we could still get 100 immigrants from that country.
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  #72  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2019, 8:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Ant131531 View Post
Probably because they only take the top 5%. They're much more strict with Black African immigrants than any other ethnic/racial group in the world. That's why Nigerian Americans are the top 3 performing ethnic groups in America today.
This isn't true.
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  #73  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2019, 9:41 PM
jtown,man jtown,man is offline
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Originally Posted by Ant131531 View Post

Western countries basically suck away the talent from these developing countries, then cry when these countries can't develop into fully functioning countries on their own....
Is there anything on Earth that isn't the fault of the West? It gets tiring.
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  #74  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2019, 9:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Ant131531 View Post
Probably because they only take the top 5%. They're much more strict with Black African immigrants than any other ethnic/racial group in the world. That's why Nigerian Americans are the top 3 performing ethnic groups in America today. Unfortunately it causes brain drain on these countries and it's hard to develop without intelligent, talented people.

Western countries basically suck away the talent from these developing countries, then cry when these countries can't develop into fully functioning countries on their own....but with declining brithrates around most of the world, there's only but so much talent to go around.
Is the west 'sucking away' talent from the developing world or are those people simply moving to where the opportunities are. It's not our fault upwardly mobile Nigerians choose to move to the US rather than stay in Nigeria which is
hopeless corrupt and unstable. China had a brain drain with many Chinese moving oversees seeking education and opportunity where as now, if they do still study abroad, they can return and find opportunities back home.
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  #75  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2019, 10:34 PM
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
Is the west 'sucking away' talent from the developing world or are those people simply moving to where the opportunities are. It's not our fault upwardly mobile Nigerians choose to move to the US rather than stay in Nigeria which is
hopeless corrupt and unstable. China had a brain drain with many Chinese moving oversees seeking education and opportunity where as now, if they do still study abroad, they can return and find opportunities back home.
Good points. Interestingly, @Jack is moving to Africa. That's not a bad thing, hopefully he'll stay over there.
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  #76  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2019, 11:14 PM
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In response to another thread talking about a possible uptick in Caucasian immigration to the US in the future, I think the possibly of more Africans immigrating to the US along with Asians and a small portion of Latin Americans and Eastern Europeans/ Middle Easterners is more likely and realistic.


Africa is currently developing and growing comparatively to Europe and Asia. It is essentially the future at this point. Immigration from it will continue for some time but it too will industrialize and catch up. But until then, the door is pretty wide open and China is already taking advantage.
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  #77  
Old Posted Dec 3, 2019, 12:00 AM
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Originally Posted by jtown,man View Post
Is there anything on Earth that isn't the fault of the West? It gets tiring.
The key is not to care.

Accusation: Western countries Blah Blah blah
Response: So what? I dont care.
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